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@beachbum77 thread (out of Market Action)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by beachbum77, Aug 22, 2018.

  1. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Here is a good read. As one who has recently lost money as the stock came back down, this surprised me. How many of us are a bit guilty of this? Are we at all focused on fundamentals?

    Stupid Money Risk Is Real - Tesla Could be Next
     
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  2. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #2 EinSV, Aug 22, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2018
    Please stop with the charade and lies.

    @beachbum77 is Donn Bailey, one of the most prolific Tesla short authors on Seeking Alpha, with 67 anti-Tesla articles published over the past 14 months. His disclosure on Seeking Alpha says:

    "Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS."​

    So his Put options are about to go to zero when the go private deal closes. Good.

    This is a great example of why Elon wants Tesla to go private though. The dishonesty of short sellers never ends. I for one will be glad to see them gone.
     
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  3. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

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    But you did.
     
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  4. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    #4 Alketi, Aug 22, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
    Donn, this is really blatant and lazy on your part. Care to share when exactly you went "long" on Tesla?

    I'm honestly surprised and disappointed you've stooped to this level of concern-trolling FUD, as you always appeared honest on Seeking Alpha.

    A short pretending to be a "concerned long" is exactly the kind of thing that destroys trust on a message board, if allowed to continue. Is this kind of post just for personal entertainment, imagining you're playing with a bunch of toddlers here, or were you secretly hoping for martyrdom?

    For reference:

    Seeking Alpha and Tesla: Fair or FUD?

    upload_2018-8-23_2-6-29.png

    Your recent (non-long) SA comments:

    upload_2018-8-23_1-58-38.png

    upload_2018-8-23_1-59-50.png
     
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  5. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    LIke most options traders I work stocks from both directions. Long term I hold Jan and Mar 2019 puts. Short term I held May and August calls and recently lost a pretty sizable amount when "funding secured" was not accurate. If Tesla was priced based on fundamentals I'd be holding calls only or shares if they paid dividends. But it isn't priced that way so I see it as a high-risk trade for now. Certainly too high to hold the stock itself.

    If you have read my articles you know I try to balance the argument. I present options Tesla could employ to cut costs and increase profits. The argument "we" all want Tesla to fail is completely absurd. 35,000 jobs are at stake just here in the U.S. I just test drove the Model 3 yesterday. Pretty awesome car! The local showroom still does not have a P3+, just two RWD units. I am still holding out for the SR for a commuter car.

    Great products do not make a great company in every case. Tesla has issues. I wrote an article a few months back that Tesla needed a COO to run the day-to-day while Musk steers the ship. Seems others are starting to agree, So dismissing all authors as one sided is pretty narrow-minded.

    I will be the first to admit some of the press sure seem focused on the negative aspects of everything Tesla. After the crash of 2008 I trust WS even less then I did before. They seem to operate with complete immunity. When they run the train off the cliff the government bails them out. So is there a fair playing field? Not hardly as I see it.
     
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  6. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Lol... Just remember that a dealer without inventory is a dealer about to go out of business.
     
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  7. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    #7 MXWing, Aug 23, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
    Please drop any pretense of being balanced and "caring" about any person's job over your short selling agenda.

    Model 3 is pretty awesome eh? I think I will eat the fake leather (and possibly the real leather in my gear shifter) in my Tesla the moment you pen a SA article with the title:

    "I just test drove the Model 3 yesterday. Pretty awesome car!" , by Donn Bailey

    without the following in the article:

    (too bad it won't survive without incentives, will be doomed by fuel cells, and inventory rising.)

    I pulled a straight list of your name and FUD TSLA articles sent to my mailbox.

    Here you go:

    upload_2018-8-23_17-10-17.png
     
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  8. SO16

    SO16 Member

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    Lol.....that is the most absurd comparison I have seen yet.
     
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  9. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    So why is inventory a problem for Tesla then?

    upload_2018-8-23_17-22-36.png
     
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  10. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    It was not a comparison. It was pointing out a fact. Every large dealership is packed with cars to satisfy buyers who want it "right now" costing $millions in inventory expense. Tesla is the direct opposite as many on here have proven by waiting over 2 years for their cars. That is a very huge asset for Tesla.
     
  11. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Look back to last summer.

    Jon McNeill did an outstanding job of reducing inventory in Q3 and Q4 in 2017. It took some serious discounting but he cut inventory over 6,000 units. Unfortunately, he is gone and as soon as he left inventory started rising again, and as of the end of Q2 this year is right back where it was last year at the end of Q2. Only no one seems concerned this year. In 5 weeks we will have the numbers for Q3. None of the inventory sites are reporting any large efforts to move this older inventory.

    At the end of Q2 there were 1,400 unsold Model 3's. And these are in addition to the 11,166 that were in transit. A service center I visit regularly has a Model 3 that has been sitting on the lot since May 3, 2018. If you read the threads here on this site others are monitoring inventory and seeing cars sitting in the same place for weeks. Are these rework cars? Customer rejects? No one is saying.
     
  12. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Oh yeah? Again I don't see an article like:

    "I'm short Tesla but the press is too focused on all the negatives and it is unfair", by Donn Bailey


    I cannot believe you are so dense that you don't know that Tesla waited until Q3 to sell it's 200,000th unit.

    I think GM initially had a plan to delay it's 200,000th sale until next year. Though, GM not hitting 200,000 until next year is going to be no one buying Bolts, not because GM held themselves back. :D
     
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  13. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    You do not work your options for Tesla's benefit from the articles I have read
    I still remember your "Tesla Semi Killer from Nikola Motors, largely premised upon 1,000,000 free miles of Hydrogen ! as a cost competitor.
    that was a "doozy"/ Duesenberg
    have fun on SA
     
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  14. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #14 EinSV, Aug 23, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
    Pretending to be an "options trader" is what most shorts do when they get called out.

    It's BS. Anyone can read your comments on Seeking Alpha and judge for themselves. Donn Bailey's Comments | Seeking Alpha

    A few recent examples are below. There are also the gems below from TMC.

    If you want to claim the stock is overvalued, fine. But don't pretend to be a disappointed long (or now "options trader"). It's insulting and it's dishonest. (Not to mention a big no-no as far as the SEC is concerned, which is why Seeking Alpha requires you to disclose that you are short via options).


    "The only way Musk goes to jail is if some whistleblower releases some recorded conversations or leaked emails showing direct efforts to manipulate the stock price or to conceal ugly financial truths. Otherwise he is looking at fines at worst.

    He is right alongside the masters of deception in 2008. None of them went to jail either.

    Tesla shareholders will be the losers in the long run..."

    "Musk wants to go private so that he does not have to report the declining prospects for this company every quarter.

    "The one thing any buyers should demand is that the deal closes after Q3 reporting. That will be an eye-opener."
    Aug 21, 2018. 01:48 PM

    They would if they could actually deliver 60,000 Model 3s. But actual number will be lucky to hit 50,000 based on the high number of cancelled deliveries over damaged or rejected cars. Spend some time on the Tesla forums. The news is not good at all and they are quickly burning through all existing orders."
    Aug 20, 2018. 11:18 AM

    "The only place I think you are off is in the number of deliveries. I think Model 3 will top out at 42,000. They just are not getting them delivered in a timely manner. The number of people being assigned new VINs is unreal."

    "I would not be writing about Tesla much at all if it was priced appropriately for a company that has never had an annual profit in 15 years and was valued at about $10 billion. At $50-60 billion it is insane.

    No one will be writing about Tesla's finances if it goes private until they file for BK. Then we will all be writing "we tried to warn you" articles."
     
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  15. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Lol... Sleep in? Doesn't the market open at 11:30 your time?
     
  16. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Winfield! You beach bum. Are you still in Hawaii?

    Hydrogen is still a better option I think for long distance. Time will tell. EVs are being geared to shorter routes and will be more effective there IMO.
     
  17. bird2730

    bird2730 Member

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    Donn, are you getting paid by any external sources to publish these articles? That is what I really want to know...
     
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  18. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Guess you need to read some of the articles. "Tesla needs a COO". Who disagrees with that? I wrote that a while back.
     
  19. bird2730

    bird2730 Member

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    I closely watch the inventory showroom deals for S/X and they are usually sold within days. I am in the market for a 2nd X and keep a snapshot every day to see how fluid this list gets. It doesn't take a genius to do this. Most of the cars are test cars or loaners so they are constantly switching them out.
     
  20. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    Not a dime, nor would I accept any. I am semi-retired now and write for the fun of it. Mainly for the comments that I get to respond to. Everyone told me I was nuts to voice an opinion at all. But I feel everyone deserves to look at any stock from both sides of the coin. Options traders just ride the waves up and down. TSLA has been a topic for me because it reminds me of NFLX when it was going crazy. You have to admit TSLA is not a boring stock!

    The odd thing to me is anyone believing that anything anyone writes on SA, myself included (or any other forum) moves the stock one way or the other. That is total horsepucky. SA only allows authors to discuss other published data like the inventory results I write about. You are not allowed to write "news" type stories. So there is nothing we write about (long or short) that is not already public knowledge. We can only express an opinion about the data that is out there.

    The only new ground it seems is Toni Saccanaghi and I asking or writing about inventory. No one else seems to care much at all about it, but they should.
     
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