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Also, pigs have been known to fly. Fact. Some woman convinced Delta (IIRC) employees that her pig was a service animal and it was allowed to travel in the cabin with her. Published somewhere, I remember reading about it several years ago. 
So goats are a better reference.
Tesla will surely (IMHO) start X manufacturing slowly: something like make 50, check and adjust the line, make 100, check/adjust, make 100, check/adjust, and so on. I'd guess that it'll take 2-3 months for them to reach full production capacity on Model X. And I believe they've said that the goal is to make 35,000 Model X in 2015, so one can reasonably assume a production rate of 3,000/month. First month is likely to be 500 or so, though.
I think it's highly likely that Model X will miss its "first deliveries in 2014, with volume production in Q1/2015" target by at least 3 months if not 6 months. If they were going to start production in 60 days, I think (a) we'd have seen the final production vehicle revealed by now, (b) we'd have started to see test drives, and (c) Sig owners would have been asked to configure their cars.
So goats are a better reference.Tesla will surely (IMHO) start X manufacturing slowly: something like make 50, check and adjust the line, make 100, check/adjust, make 100, check/adjust, and so on. I'd guess that it'll take 2-3 months for them to reach full production capacity on Model X. And I believe they've said that the goal is to make 35,000 Model X in 2015, so one can reasonably assume a production rate of 3,000/month. First month is likely to be 500 or so, though.
I think it's highly likely that Model X will miss its "first deliveries in 2014, with volume production in Q1/2015" target by at least 3 months if not 6 months. If they were going to start production in 60 days, I think (a) we'd have seen the final production vehicle revealed by now, (b) we'd have started to see test drives, and (c) Sig owners would have been asked to configure their cars.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Also, pigs have been known to fly. Fact. Some woman convinced Delta (IIRC) employees that her pig was a service animal and it was allowed to travel in the cabin with her. Published somewhere, I remember reading about it several years ago.
Tesla will surely (IMHO) start X manufacturing slowly: something like make 50, check and adjust the line, make 100, check/adjust, make 100, check/adjust, and so on. I'd guess that it'll take 2-3 months for them to reach full production capacity on Model X. And I believe they've said that the goal is to make 35,000 Model X in 2015, so one can reasonably assume a production rate of 3,000/month. First month is likely to be 500 or so, though.
I think it's highly likely that Model X will miss its "first deliveries in 2014, with volume production in Q1/2015" target by at least 3 months if not 6 months. If they were going to start production in 60 days, I think (a) we'd have seen the final production vehicle revealed by now, (b) we'd have started to see test drives, and (c) Sig owners would have been asked to configure their cars.
Right you are. I believe we'll se symbolic deliveries in Q2 (founders, a couple of Signatures) and ramp-up in Q3.
engle
Member
Tesla Factory store called me out of the blue this morning to see if I'd "heard about the new Model S D" and was interested in getting one. He knew that I have a very low P reservation for the X. Not a good sign. Have the stores been calling other people, too, besides inviting a bunch of us to go to Hawthorne for test rides in the D? I did ask when test drives would be available at the Fremont factory store. He said he thought they'd pull a few off the line for test drives when the first production D's (P85D's presumably) are produced in December. I do plan to test drive it, but I'm not switching out of the X at this point.
Of course, when I asked about the X, the salesperson said "we have no idea". (They're always the last to know anything.)
Of course, when I asked about the X, the salesperson said "we have no idea". (They're always the last to know anything.)
Zapped
Model S - PURE EV
I received voice mail to see if I was interested in the Model S (P)xxD from the Vancouver showroom.
When I called back and asked about the X, the reply was "...soon"
When I called back and asked about the X, the reply was "...soon"
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Q3 conference call is exactly a week from now. I would expect an update on the X.
I'm as impatient as everyone else (and I don't even have a reservation), but an automobile is a very complicated product that often can't be kept on schedule.
Using Honda Motor Co. as an example:
9th Generation USDM Honda Civic was delayed 6 months; The newest USDM Honda Fit was delayed 3-4 months; Acura RLX hybrid went so long without news that people forgot about it when it finally went on sale. Acura TLX SH-AWD suffered months of delays due to a manufacturing issue. This is an established automaker with decades of experience and a reputation for being conservative and quality-minded.
The problem I think is that Tesla does not set realistic expectations. Model X was supposed to be a late 2013 release from what I can remember from the announcements. They should not have made such statements so early in the development process. The result has been irritated reservation holders.
I think that Elon tends to forget this sometimes with the timelines he quotes.
Edit:
And while I did delete my post since I thought it may come off too snarky I will put it back for completeness since it did get quoted above
Sorry but Tesla doing anything on time or ahead of schedule is ridiculously impossible and as likely as goats or pigs learning to fly (without a jet pack).
NigelM
Recovering Member
The Martian day is longer than an a Earth day and the year is almost twice as long as ours; don't even think about comparing the lengths of Earth vs Mars seasons.
Timekeeping on Mars
Nubo
Test Mule
"[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The twins keep us on Centaurian time, standard thirty-seven hour day. Give it a few months; you'll get used to it. …..or... you'll have a psychotic episode." -- Zed, Men in Black[/FONT]
Thank you.
I don't care so much about being ridiculed even, but it stings if it feels like the point is missed - and sometimes excessive humour is a surefire way of drowning the point underneath. Some of this thread is testament to that.That said, even I would be interessed to witness some goats with jetpacks. Hilarity, or cruelty towards animals depending on the POV, would surely ensue.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Thank you.
That said, even I would be interessed to witness some goats with jetpacks. Hilarity, or cruelty towards animals depending on the POV, would surely ensue.
As the person who made the original reference to flying goats, i'd like to clarify (again) that it was in no way ridiculing any one person, but rather was used as an analogy. That's all it was. No one was ridiculing you.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
There was somewhat encouraging X ramp up information on the last earnings call in early August (link below of transcript)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/236...arnings-call-transcript?page=2&p=qanda&l=last
1. Tesla had announced that they expect to exit 2015 at a 100,000 vehicle per year production run rate. Answering the first question on this call, Elon quite clearly indicated that the goal would include a roughly 1,000/week run rate for X production by late 2015, so better than double the 2,000 per month run rate I saw some speculation about in this thread.
"Well, and this is sort of give you rough guesses on the 100K run rate within the next year,... We're expecting that to be sort of roughly split between X and S. So we're talking a little -- roughly 1,000 units a week of each."
2. Towards the end of the call, after Baird's Ben Kallo's question, Elon described how he expects production of the X to get up to several hundred/week over the course of about 3 months, half the time this progress took with the S.
"Model S had a long production slope, starting off very slowly and then taking kind of six months to reach the 400 unit per week level. In the case of the X, I mean we're going to try to move to sort of several hundred units a week within three months of production. So it's like half -- maybe less than half the length. Yeah.
But because of that, we really wanted to [indiscernible] validation on the car, test the heck out of it before going into volume production."
As an X reservation holder myself (bit under #3,700), I get how it's challenging to wait. I may be off (wording is a bit ambiguous), but when you look at that last sentence in the second comment from Elon, I think we may have traded 3 months or so longer time that Tesla will be testing "the heck out of the car," (I believe he means pre production cars) for ~3 months quicker to several hundred X produced each week once production actually begins. For all but the very earliest reservationists, I think we break even on this in terms of time, and we all get cars with much more testing behind them. That is, if your reservation number is high enough, you benefit from the ramp to 400/week production in 3 months rather than 6, so some of what's seemed like an added 3 months of waiting really wont be. Any Sig holders feeling bummed out about this are free to trade spots with me :tongue:
As other's have said, next earnings call is next Wednesday after the market closes, we're likely to hear more.
One final tidbit... I spoke on the phone with someone at Tesla's headquarters in a senior position (no connections on my end... just how they passed my call along). Anyway, at the end I lightly fished for a comment about an X reveal. I was told I'd probably see someone outside of Tesla spotting one in testing and putting a spy shot up on the web before a Tesla reveal (okay, keep your eyes open!). For whatever reason, I think this will happen by the end of 2014.
Disclaimer: Seeking Alpha putting up these transcripts is a nice service. For anyone not familiar with them, their "articles" are in fact blogs not edited for factual accuracy... the result (at least with Tesla), an onslaught of nonsense shots at Tesla. I don't look for anything useful on Seeking Alpha other than these transcripts.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/236...arnings-call-transcript?page=2&p=qanda&l=last
1. Tesla had announced that they expect to exit 2015 at a 100,000 vehicle per year production run rate. Answering the first question on this call, Elon quite clearly indicated that the goal would include a roughly 1,000/week run rate for X production by late 2015, so better than double the 2,000 per month run rate I saw some speculation about in this thread.
"Well, and this is sort of give you rough guesses on the 100K run rate within the next year,... We're expecting that to be sort of roughly split between X and S. So we're talking a little -- roughly 1,000 units a week of each."
2. Towards the end of the call, after Baird's Ben Kallo's question, Elon described how he expects production of the X to get up to several hundred/week over the course of about 3 months, half the time this progress took with the S.
"Model S had a long production slope, starting off very slowly and then taking kind of six months to reach the 400 unit per week level. In the case of the X, I mean we're going to try to move to sort of several hundred units a week within three months of production. So it's like half -- maybe less than half the length. Yeah.
But because of that, we really wanted to [indiscernible] validation on the car, test the heck out of it before going into volume production."
As an X reservation holder myself (bit under #3,700), I get how it's challenging to wait. I may be off (wording is a bit ambiguous), but when you look at that last sentence in the second comment from Elon, I think we may have traded 3 months or so longer time that Tesla will be testing "the heck out of the car," (I believe he means pre production cars) for ~3 months quicker to several hundred X produced each week once production actually begins. For all but the very earliest reservationists, I think we break even on this in terms of time, and we all get cars with much more testing behind them. That is, if your reservation number is high enough, you benefit from the ramp to 400/week production in 3 months rather than 6, so some of what's seemed like an added 3 months of waiting really wont be. Any Sig holders feeling bummed out about this are free to trade spots with me :tongue:
As other's have said, next earnings call is next Wednesday after the market closes, we're likely to hear more.
One final tidbit... I spoke on the phone with someone at Tesla's headquarters in a senior position (no connections on my end... just how they passed my call along). Anyway, at the end I lightly fished for a comment about an X reveal. I was told I'd probably see someone outside of Tesla spotting one in testing and putting a spy shot up on the web before a Tesla reveal (okay, keep your eyes open!). For whatever reason, I think this will happen by the end of 2014.
Disclaimer: Seeking Alpha putting up these transcripts is a nice service. For anyone not familiar with them, their "articles" are in fact blogs not edited for factual accuracy... the result (at least with Tesla), an onslaught of nonsense shots at Tesla. I don't look for anything useful on Seeking Alpha other than these transcripts.
Last edited:
I didn't think you were, bonnie. My apologies if it felt that way. Merely saying I don't mind so much even if someone was ridiculing me (who knows, maybe some people were), but it does suck if the point discussed is drowned out by the noise. Hence I thanked Johan for his comment.
Oh well. I've resigned to the fact that this thread is now all about goats.
I agree with it being a thread about goats. (GOAT is also an acronym for Greatest Of All Time)
In other news, I've reserved a Model X as of today. Got a sequence number in the low-mid 14000s, I'm looking forward to seeing the Model X info before I either buy a S P85D, or a X P85D.
Hoping for a few upgrades such as LTE Connectivity, as well as the Autopilot being active before I buy. I wanna test drive and see if its actually better than my S550 in terms of Driver Assistance.
Are we expecting information this week in the Q3 Earnings Call?
In other news, I've reserved a Model X as of today. Got a sequence number in the low-mid 14000s, I'm looking forward to seeing the Model X info before I either buy a S P85D, or a X P85D.
Hoping for a few upgrades such as LTE Connectivity, as well as the Autopilot being active before I buy. I wanna test drive and see if its actually better than my S550 in terms of Driver Assistance.
Are we expecting information this week in the Q3 Earnings Call?
We should at least get an update on where they are with the general timeline, such as when they expect to start the beta phase and if production is still on schedule for 2015 Q2. I'd expect any specific details about the Model X to come later in their own event or press release.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
I would assume that would be January 2016 for a European delivery. January 2015 seems highly unlikely (impossible). It is of course always possible that the store models will be pre-production/beta units like they did with the Model S. Not for sale though.
