Best Guess for NSW Q2-2015 Aus Sales

[brewster]

In another week or so Tesla will announce their Sales for Q2 2015.
To provide a build up for the Oz component of their sales, what would be your best guess for sales in NSW - as this seems to be the only data source that has been available.
Closest to the actual number will be deemed 'Best Sales Predictor'

Correct me if this is wrong, but I think the stats for NSW so far have been:

Q4 2014 - 65
Q1 2015 - 54
Q2 2015 - ??

Until we get the definitive answer for that number, my guess for Q2 2015 is 45

I can update this first page with all your guesses until announced if that's okay 'cause that will effectively bumping this thread.
Do we have an estimate for Australian numbers based on NSW Sales or actual Australian Sales of the Model S?

What is your best guess for Q2 in NSW???


Davide - 424
Higgy - 340
Aussie Yank - 110
Trav - 65
baillies - 60
MangroveMike - 55
brewster - 45

 

[Aussie Yank]

Since the total sales in Oz at the end of Q1 was approaching 250, and their outlook originally was 500 for the year...now pushing 1k for the year total, I think your numbers are light.

NSW in Q2 110, total Oz at 200

IMHO. Aussie Yank

 

[baillies]

I was going to go lower but after Aussie yanks insider info I will split the difference and go with 60. I think 1K is still possible as there is probably a lot of D backlog but these will not deliver till late Q3 with a big finish in Q4 when they clear the backlog. Also I think the Vic deliveries and orders will have picked up with the service centre opening.

Hopefully they start rolling out superchargers and even better a 2016 plan to Adelaide with more regional locations near the capitals then we may have 2K sales in 2016 and a good network ready for the ☰. Would be good to have the Brisbane service centre at least started this year.

 

[Higgy]

And my guestimate is just over 300 to the end of May - so expect around 340 by end of June.

 

[Davide]

424 my guess!

 

[brewster]

And my guestimate is just over 300 to the end of May - so expect around 340 by end of June.

424 my guess!

For Q2 NSW? Just checking:smile:
My guess is very weak then

 

[raynewman]

NSW Tesla registered vehicles as at 31 March 2015 was 119 and new registrations for 1 Jan to 31 March 2015 were 54. see Registration

 

[Trav]

Due to the delay in the RHD D models I am guessing only 65 for Q2

 

[MangroveMike]

55 - I think there will be backlogs into two following quarters for S70D and P85D. Hmmm is that figure sales or deliveries ? I guess it's the same thing as it's only fully paid for upon delivery.

 

[Dborn]

The question here is what are we counting? If I go in today and order a D, is that a sale or not? After all, I will have to put down a deposit. I note that there is a serious distinction made in the USA in relation to this issue for accounting purposes.
I would regard it as a sale. Others including accountants would possibly not. If it is a sale then all the D orders are sales otherwise not and that would make a huge difference to the estimate. Therefore, I would guess either 120 or 40, depending on what you accept.

 

[brewster]

The question here is what are we counting? If I go in today and order a D, is that a sale or not? After all, I will have to put down a deposit. I note that there is a serious distinction made in the USA in relation to this issue for accounting purposes.
I would regard it as a sale. Others including accountants would possibly not. If it is a sale then all the D orders are sales otherwise not and that would make a huge difference to the estimate. Therefore, I would guess either 120 or 40, depending on what you accept.

The number will be based on the report of sales for NSW per Transport of NSW found at this link: Registration as indicated by 'raynewman'.

 

[TesAus]

If we are using the RTA published "registrations" as our source of sales data (in the absence of anything better) then that only reflects cars registered in that period. I don't know how we could determine "sales" if it was measured as deposits placed.

My guess (to be measured against RTA registrations!) is 73.

 

[Mark E]

The question here is what are we counting? If I go in today and order a D, is that a sale or not? After all, I will have to put down a deposit. I note that there is a serious distinction made in the USA in relation to this issue for accounting purposes.
I would regard it as a sale. Others including accountants would possibly not. If it is a sale then all the D orders are sales otherwise not and that would make a huge difference to the estimate. Therefore, I would guess either 120 or 40, depending on what you accept.

You can never recognise the revenue until you have shipped the product - even if you (as a vendor) get to keep any deposits.

 

[brewster]

Update

Update ....

In another week or so Tesla will announce their Sales for Q2 2015.
To provide a build up for the Oz component of their sales, what would be your best guess for sales in NSW - as this seems to be the only data source that has been available.
Closest to the actual number will be deemed 'Best Sales Predictor'

Correct me if this is wrong, but I think the stats for NSW so far have been:

Q4 2014 - 65
Q1 2015 - 54
Q2 2015 - ??

Until we get the definitive answer for that number, my guess for Q2 2015 is 45

I can update this first page with all your guesses until announced if that's okay 'cause that will effectively bumping this thread.
Do we have an estimate for Australian numbers based on NSW Sales or actual Australian Sales of the Model S?

What is your best guess for Q2 in NSW???


Davide - 424
Higgy - 340
Aussie Yank - 110
TesAus - 73
Trav - 65
baillies - 60
MangroveMike - 55
Gabz - 50
brewster - 45
Dborn - 40

 

[Gabz]

ok i'll take 50 new registrations (won't call them sales as it may include demo vehicles)

 

[houdini]

ok i'll take 50 new registrations (won't call them sales as it may include demo vehicles)

I'm going 75

 

[meloccom]

I'll throw my hat in at 52.

 

[brewster]

Update ....

Update ....

Originally Posted by brewster
In another week or so Tesla will announce their Sales for Q2 2015.
To provide a build up for the Oz component of their sales, what would be your best guess for sales in NSW - as this seems to be the only data source that has been available.
Closest to the actual number will be deemed 'Best Sales Predictor'

Correct me if this is wrong, but I think the stats for NSW so far have been:

Q4 2014 - 65
Q1 2015 - 54
Q2 2015 - ??

Until we get the definitive answer for that number, my guess for Q2 2015 is 45

I can update this first page with all your guesses until announced if that's okay 'cause that will effectively bumping this thread.
Do we have an estimate for Australian numbers based on NSW Sales or actual Australian Sales of the Model S?

What is your best guess for Q2 in NSW???


Davide - 424
Higgy - 340
Aussie Yank - 110
houdini - 75
TesAus - 73
Trav - 65
baillies - 60
MangroveMike - 55
meloccom - 52
Gabz - 50
brewster - 45
lonewolf313 - 44
Dborn - 40

 

[lonewolf313]

I'll have a go at 44 (a combination of my 2 favourite numbers)

 

[baillies]

Not all of the numbers seem to be up but the tesla registrations at end of q2 are 150 up from 119 q1 so I guess Dborn is closest with 44. If the orders are close to 1000 then there must be a lot coming in the second half with the D and/or the NSW is not as big a share of AU as previously.

Update now showing 90 new registrations for H1 2015 so 90 - 54 = 36 new registrations, so Dborn is still the WINNER! I wonder where the other 5 have gone? I guess probably just interstate transfers.