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Best guesses on when we'll be invited to configure our models...

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Pieter Knispel, May 8, 2016.

  1. Pieter Knispel

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    With the updated build plan and new objective to build between 100-200k Model 3's in 2017, does anyone have a best guess in terms of when everyone will be invited to configure their models? And has that changed at all, as a result of the new build plan?

    Im really curious as to when we will know all of the upgrade options, and their prices. Any insight or thoughts would be great! :)

    Thanks!
     
  2. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    All guesses this far out. But Assuming they can meet the (impossible) July 1 date, then I would guess sometime around April/May. If it's more like the original (late 2017) then I would say August/September.

    All will depend on how successful they are at sticking to the timeline, which has many many variables. But rest assured, the second the first TMC member configured, we'll see screen shots of the whole design studio. ;)
     
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  3. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Member

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    What do you think the lag time will be from configuration to delivery? With a new model like the 3 I expect it to be considerable...maybe 6 months?

    Dan
     
  4. NoPetrolDream

    NoPetrolDream Member

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    Elon said, in essence, during last week's earnings call that the July 1 date was impossible for all involved, but was imposed in order to give all involved a kick in the butt to get going, and consequences if July 1 passes with no results. It is both an internal and external deadline, to my understanding. He said that even if 98% of all things required to produce a car is ready by July 1, the missing 2% means the car can't yet be made. I see the July 1 date as a way to push the existing percentage ratio ( do have vs. don't have) closer to 100% "do have" so the remaining "don't have" % is not so large.
     
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  5. tga

    tga Active Member

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    But they will only open it on those dates for the luck few initial deliveries. We won't all be invited to configure at once; they will stage it based on regional priority, current owners, employees, etc. Similar to what they did with the X - people were invited to configure in batches base on where they were in the queue.
     
  6. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    I agree - I should have been more specific. It will open to employees, then owners (I am an owner) first - then continue via whatever order Tesla has worked out. I guess I was more addressing when the OP will find out about options and prices - which will be when the first TMC member (likely owner or employee) posts the info here. :)
     
  7. Swampgator

    Swampgator Member

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    And even for owners we don't really know the way they will do that.
    My guess is that employees first, then owners in the San Fran Area, then owners in the rest of California, and then who knows.
    If you are an owner in New York for example, you very may well get to configure AFTER non owners in the San Fran area.
     
  8. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    You are absolutely right - but i do hope they don't do it that way. It sort of makes "owner priority" meaningless....

    Edit to add: my understanding is the invitation to configure is based on your place in line (when you ordered), But I am assuming the actual delivery date will depend on the other factors (options/owners/geography.)
     
  9. Swampgator

    Swampgator Member

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    There just are a lot of factors involved. Tesla has said the date of reservation matters, they have said the geographical region matters, the options selected, etc.
    I would still say that where I live (Fl) the first Model 3 owners will be previous Tesla owners who order a loaded car. So they DO get priority within their region. Now if a non owner orders a loaded PXXD in Florida he MAY get his car before a Model S owner that specs out a base Model 3
     
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  10. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    My $0.02:
    October 2017 - event (2nd reveal) and design studio open to US owners with CA owners getting delivery after Bay Area employees. This is not to say cars will be produced that day - but by December 31st, 2017 if at all possible in order to have a Q4 success story and great momentum for 2018.

    If everything goes near perfectly, then conceivably the above could accelerate 3 months, but not the full 6 months. To Elon's point, with 6000+ parts in a car, it's not good enough to have 99% of the parts available. Shades of the movie Gung Ho, except that the market will not be as kind to TSLA as was the Japanese executive at the end of that movie.
     
  11. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    wet finger in the air says.....
    September - maybe

    As an aside - wet fingers in the air are not generally known for accurate guesses, but in most cases regarding Tesla they are just as accurate as other methods :)
     
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  12. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    Logically, the configuration should be offered at a relatively fixed point from anticipated production date. The delivery date is going to be 100% tied to production date, otherwise they have a bunch of cars just sitting in a lot.
     
  13. Camera-Cruiser

    Camera-Cruiser Fully Charged

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    I don't know (like everyone else here, and probably at Tesla), but I think they should open the door to everyone simultaneously, or nearly so. Reason being that the data collected would be incredibly valuable. They would also get a much wider pool of data points. Meaning that data from early adopters who select higher priced options, might skew their thinking, so a larger data set would smooth that out and help material and parts ordering from sub-contractors.

    They could also request more money at this time too. So if you stood in line, and are an employee, or current owner, and on the west cost that configures and throws in another $1,000 bucks you move ahead in the que. If they really can make the cars quickly, and can report hundreds, and then thousands of deliveries in the early weeks then it will be a great rollout - which they really need.

    To me, I don't want to see Elon get on stage and deliver 10 cars. I want to see a parking lot with 1,000 M3s, and a gate silently slide open with 1,000 owners and their families streaming through to get in and drive away. All with requisite drone footage with a perfectly timed SpaceX launch in the background. As the cars clear the lot, the first stage rocket comes into to land as the last M3 to leave reveals the landing target.

    Camera zooms into returned rocket, a door opens revealing Musk in his designer space suit, he flips the visor open, looks directly into the camera and says "Mars was great! I planted potatoes for the next crew, but they better suit up because I've reduced interplanetary travel between Earth and Mars to 3 days, but don't worry, by next year it'll be down to 12 hours."

    He closes hatch, skin falls off of the rocket revealing Model W, and he flys away. Because we all know, the Model W, stands for wings.

    Fade to new Tesla logo with added rocket streak under it, in plaid. Because all Model 3s ship that way.
     
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  14. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    What is the rationale behind the expectation that the initial orders will have a statistically significant optioning difference?
     
  15. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    Storongly agree. This is the only way to give final priority to the "queue" and the concept of "highly optioned" first. I'm willing to drop $70K, so take me early....!
     
  16. Camera-Cruiser

    Camera-Cruiser Fully Charged

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    Sorry, you missed my point. It's not that the options will be different at all, but that by opening up configuration and provisioning to all depositors, Tesla would get the best dataset to understand how to allocate resources appropriately.

    I was trying to say that opening it up to the first early adopters for provisioning might skew their data set to more highly optioned cars, since early adopters may have greater disposable income.

    And, please note, that I used "might, and "may", because if I could predict the future I might not be posting here. But, maybe elsewhere ;). And be giving my Mom a MS for Mother's Day too.
     
  17. arjay

    arjay member

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    Let's take Elon at his word that June 30, 2017 is the deadline for suppliers to provide parts for production to begin July 1. Then backing up six months to a config date of Jan 1, 2017 in order for Tesla to know the required parts needed for that first wave of "highly optioned" cars. That would put the configuration date coincident with many auto shows for added PR impetus and also places the second reveal sometime late this year. Actually I would think Tesla could use the data and the dollars associated with configuration earlier than that, so maybe we could think three months sooner. What the heck: Config October 2016, Second reveal September 2016.

    That's my pitch and if I can get Camera-Cruiser to be DP it we've got ourselves an exciting imaginary blockbuster on our hands. Title and trailer TBD.
     
  18. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    That's true. The only pre-optioning impracticality I can imagine is if the options change in the months or perhaps years following start of production. It would be desirable for Tesla to be as flexible with the available options as possible and not have to unnecessarily commit resources. Or if competitive features arise, not be able to address those without reorder. Also the more time between order and production, the more likely a buyer is to change their mind on initial option choice.
     
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  19. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Active Member

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    #19 Az_Rael, May 8, 2016
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
    How far in advance of production did Signature buyers get access to configure on the S and X?

    Edit: did some digging. First Sig holders for the S were invited to configure in March 2012. First deliveries were in June 2012.
     
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  20. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

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    With two orders (early morning in store 3/31, pre reveal online 3/31), I hope those open up in about September for me, so that I can choose Immediate delivery (2017) on one and January+ on the other (2018).
     

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