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Best "value" Model S

Discussion in 'Model S' started by pellep, Jan 22, 2016.

  1. pellep

    pellep Member

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    Hi everyone, first post:

    I interested in opinions concerning a "frugal" Model S. I'll be in the market in about a year or so. Normally drive cars for about 6 years and 120K miles. While I technically could afford a new Tesla, I'd rather prioritize some other financial goals first.

    So I'm wondering about the likelihood of this prediction in 1-2 years:

    CPO Model S, 85D
    35k miles
    $50-55k

    Does this seem realistic? Watching the CPO list, I think it might be. Financially, a significant amount of depreciation will have taken place, hopefully landing in the "value" sweet spot.

    Tell me if crazy (or not)

    Paul
     
  2. DCGOO

    DCGOO Member

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    Just one opinion, and difficult to predict because there are so few Teslas in circulation. But I would have to say that is unrealistic. Typical residual on 3 year old vehicles is in the 60's. You of course might stumble in to a great deal, but I think it will be very hard to find, and unlikely to be local to you.

    BTW, if you have not gone for a test drive yet, I would suggest NOT doing that. If you go on a test drive, you absolutely will be buying one. Mark my words, heheh!

     
  3. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    In 1-2 years I think it's possible to get a stripped 85D. For a "best value" I'd go with CPO, new cars will take a big hit.
     
  4. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    In two years you can buy an 85D for somewhere between what a 2014 85 Rear Wheel Drive would go for and what a 2014 P85 would go for. In other words in 2 years you can buy an 85D for around $60K to $65K. So you are in the right ballpark and perhaps just $5K short.

    The only caveat here is if you are averse to potentially very high repair bills for door handles and other things that might fail out of the 4 year CPO warranty and you plan to keep the car for more than 4 years you should consider buying the same car private party with an Extended warranty so from the time you buy the car you have about 6 full years of coverage.

    Nicely equipped 2014 P85 for $65K:
    https://www.teslamotors.com/models/preowned/P50000

    Nicely equipped 2014 85 RWD for $60K:
    https://www.teslamotors.com/models/preowned/P32680

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh and if you want to buy a "best value" Model S NOW, the best values are the 2013 and 2014 P85s. Unless you absolutely must have AWD and Autopilot, you can get a CPO 2013 P85 for the mid to late $50Ks or a 2014 P85 for the mid to late $60s.

    Why not buy a 2013 r 2014 P85 now, drive it for 4 years while it is under warranty and then buy a 2017 100D in 4 years? :)
     
  5. pellep

    pellep Member

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    I like your thinking :smile:.

    My current car should be fine for another 2 years, and I guess I'm trying to be as fiscally responsible as possible...

    I was initially thinking of a new Audi A6, but then realize a new well optioned A6 is close to a CPO model S

    Maybe the 70D will be closer to the $55k ballpark. I hate to get into a debate about dual motors/all season tires vs RWD/snow tires, but (having owned all combos) I prefer AWD in my climate (Boston area).

    - - - Updated - - -

    I won't test drive until I'm ready...I know how that would turn out :smile:
     
  6. brkaus

    brkaus Member

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    Best "value" Model S

    I would have to guess that CPO will not come down much more, unless overall prices come down. Reason I guess that is they wont warranty an older, higher mileage car. So in 2 years the oldest car will be 2014-2015 and probably not have any pre-AP cars.

    Just a guess though.

    Private sale is a different story.
     
  7. Model S M.D.

    Model S M.D. Ludicrous Radiologist

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    Agree 1000%. I made the "mistake" of going for a random test drive after being dead set on buying a Panamera in a year--I was hooked after the first press of the GO pedal :)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Whether you buy CPO or not, the 85D is definitely the sweet spot car in terms of performance, cost, range and efficiency. Good luck!
     
  8. tstafford

    tstafford Member

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    It seems that the prices should be even lower IMHO. Or that the delta b/w an 85D and P85D will be so small as to make it logical to go with the P85D. I say this because my car has a buy out clause at the back end of the lease of $69K. I can't see why an 85D would cost $65K if there are a bunch of P85Ds coming off lease with purchase prices under $70K. Anyway just another data point that might suggest that $60K or less will get a solid 85D in two years.
     
  9. JeffS

    JeffS Member

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    #9 JeffS, Jan 22, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2016
    Two opinions from me...a guy you don't know...and have no reason to consider. With that said...
    1. You could be dead in 2 years. So could I. So could anyone. Owning a Tesla might be a bucket list item for you. It is for me. If it is, then those two years are lost years. Owning a Tesla for me, is the end-all-be-all. If I won a $500Million in the lottery, all I would do is get a P90DL or three. Not sure if you have driven it yet, if not...as stated above...don't. If you have, you might be in the same spot. I have no idea. Just throwing it out there.

    2. I personally think you are $10k - $15k low for a D unless your idea of stripped includes sans AP. At this moment, the difference in demand on the cars is only significant pre and post the release of AP & D. It's not about the year with Tesla. A 2013 and a pre AP 2014 are pretty much the same value if miles are held constant. A 2014 with AP and/or D is the same as a 2015 if miles are held constant. Since you are thinking D - then the only depreciator is going to be miles. Figure $1/mi for the first 20k. Then $.50/mi after that. A new 85D with AP is, at a minimum, $90k. With 35,000 miles, depreciation will put that car at $62,500. If it's a CPO, call it $65,000. Just my guess. But I purchased used, did a lot of research, and I think I'm pretty spot on.

    Caveat - if AP2.0, or some other massive quake in features, range or price that cannot be retro-fitted or upgraded on existing cars (as happened when AP and D were announced), then all bets are off. Just as they were for cars that were produced before AP hardware was included. Imagine the folks who took delivery of non AP cars that were built in August of 2014...? Uffda. I don't see that happening though. The S is old news now. The X and the upcoming 3, plus PowerWall and Gigafactory will be sucking up all of the engineering resources in my opinion.
     
  10. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    Let's not forget larger battery packs will make the 85D less desirable. 5%/year, right? In 2 years, if we believe Elon Musk Time, we'll have a 100kWh battery pack.
     
  11. JeffS

    JeffS Member

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    Personally - I don't think so but I might be an outlier. There's a sweet spot on range. And I think 265-270 rated is the sweet spot. And that's the 85. I'm in WI, and even in the dead of winter coldness, I still haven't had to adjust my day to accommodate my tank of electrons. The only time I ever wish the battery was bigger is if I'm hopping SC to SC, and would prefer to leapfrog over every other one. And that's a once a year event at best. Again, I might just be an outlier. But I think 270 miles of range is the sweet spot for electric cars. Advances will come in the form of lighter, cheaper and more energy dense cells before we start striving for 350 or 400 miles of rated range...in my opinion.
     
  12. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    If you can wait 2 years, the Model 3 will be on the market as well. If I could afford a Model S now, I'd still wait off on purchasing to see what the Model 3 is going to be like. That's just me though.
     
  13. Justicepool

    Justicepool Member

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    Ditto. I had originally planned on buying one in two years, then I went for a test drive and ordered one that day!!!!

     
  14. swengl

    swengl Member

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    You nailed it with the bucket list comment. That was exactly my justification (mainly to myself). I don't regret it a bit. Sure, I could have continued driving my ICE mindlessly for a few additional years, but driving is SO MUCH MORE fun in my 85D. Once the AP hardware and the dual motor option was made available, I was out of excuses for putting it off ;)
     
  15. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    I got a 70D, which only has 240RM, and even in the winter for day-to-day driving it's way more than enough.

    To add to that, in the past 6 months I have over 15k miles and about half of them (maybe?) are roadtrip SpC to SpC miles. Not once did I think "damn, those extra 30 miles would help me get to the next SpC", and I often "hop" over superchargers (there's a handful that are close together, making skipping a few on a full charge, doable).


    But nonetheless, the 70D's range is inferior to the 85D (acceleration aside), and the 100D's range will be inferior to the 85Ds. Even when buying used, people want the latest and greatest they can afford, and if they can afford a 100D, that'll put a damper on the resale of the 85D.
     
  16. pellep

    pellep Member

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    Part of my rational was related to the availability of the additional models. I'd guess maybe 20% of current Model S owners probably would have chosen a Model x or 3 if they had the option. So if in a couple years the X is in full production, and a new Model 3 is comparable or less than a CPO Model S, maybe that softens the market a bit.

    I totally understand the YOLO thought, but in the next year I'll get the mortgage paid off, and paying cash is important to me. Plus my 2 kids will be out of car seats by then (you ever see what those things do to leather:smile:)

    Thanks so far for all the info, very helpful.
     
  17. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    I'm in that 20%, actually, I plan on getting a Model 3 "for my wife" (aka, I keep the 3, she gets the S).


    And my kids are in carseats and boosters, and after 6 months, yep, I've seen what they do to the leather.
     
  18. !S4

    !S4 Member

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    Trust me. It's really easy to go from shopping Hyundai Genesis -> A6 -> CPO Tesla -> new base Tesla -> new loaded Tesla. ;)

    No regrets, but glad I waited to test drive as long as I did.
     
  19. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

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    You aren't kidding. My plan was to buy in maybe 8-10 months, or wait for the M3. I went for a test drive last weekend. Now I can't stop thinking about it!
     
  20. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    Take a look at this eBay ad for good value ... a brilliant piece of advertising (no affiliation with the seller) :cool:

     

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