Not that much smaller than the S.The Model 3 is a small car (as small as many would want to buy). The average price for a Honda Accord is $23,800. A lot of what pulls up the vehicle average is trucks and SUVs more capable than the 3.
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Not that much smaller than the S.The Model 3 is a small car (as small as many would want to buy). The average price for a Honda Accord is $23,800. A lot of what pulls up the vehicle average is trucks and SUVs more capable than the 3.
Thank you. About a foot. That is a useful visual study. Cd benefits from the wide spoiler and vertical crease on the rear corner, and fewer parasitics up front. Wonder if the gap between the glass on the roof is enough to trip and get golf ball dimple effects.Not that much smaller than the S.
Ok. But if you're using that number to make an argument, you should probably understand it and make sure it's accurate/relevant.
From a velocity perspective at one car every 30 seconds, 6 days, 2 ten hour shifts is 750,000 cars a year. Camary sold 429K
The 10 Best-Selling Cars of 2015
Average 2014 transaction price from Wards snapshot was < $21K
Average Transaction Price a Stretch for Many Consumers
Absolutely a 3 is worth more. But it is not a truck or SUV. Look at the automotive volume excluding light trucks.
750,000 car velocity happens at $26K.
I know nothing about global markets except that Elon wants to serve them with local factories. So take global demand off the table.
The base price 3 at $26K is commanding a 20% premium over the Toyota Camary average transaction. And you need to sell almost twice as many.
I am not running the 3 down. I think it is great. What I am trying to do is make sure we don't have a situation where everything goes according to plan, and we lose. The factory does not work. And Tesla is a boutique car manufacturer.
To win, the plan needs to be to sell the high quality Model 3 at $26K before options. If the math does not support that, adjust something.
What has to happen to support that?
Make that happen. Then Tesla wins.
The difference in area between the S and the 3 is basically the same difference as between the BMW 5 series and 3 series. For a car, this is substantial difference - approx. 36in^2/232cm^2.Not that much smaller than the S.
Yes, the 3 is targeting entry-luxury sports sedans. If Tesla wants to tap into what's popular in the world market, they need a slightly shorter (~12"-18"/30cm-45cm) version of the 3 as a hatchback as we see with the A3. That should be possible for the $26K price point.I say again, the car you want is the one Musk mentioned coming up years from now, the economical model, not the Model 3.
I think you are right. I had better wait for the $26K price point.
Your assumptions are completely wrong, so it's no surprise your conclusion is completely wrong also. Tesla targets up to 400k annual Model 3 volume *worldwide* (not US only) in the long term (~500k total volume including Model S/X).From a velocity perspective at one car every 30 seconds, 6 days, 2 ten hour shifts is 750,000 cars a year. Camary sold 429K
The 10 Best-Selling Cars of 2015
Average 2014 transaction price from Wards snapshot was < $21K
Average Transaction Price a Stretch for Many Consumers
Absolutely a 3 is worth more. But it is not a truck or SUV. Look at the automotive volume excluding light trucks.
750,000 car velocity happens at $26K.
I know nothing about global markets except that Elon wants to serve them with local factories. So take global demand off the table.
The base price 3 at $26K is commanding a 20% premium over the Toyota Camary average transaction. And you need to sell almost twice as many.
I am not running the 3 down. I think it is great. What I am trying to do is make sure we don't have a situation where everything goes according to plan, and we lose. The factory does not work. And Tesla is a boutique car manufacturer.
To win, the plan needs to be to sell the high quality Model 3 at $26K before options. If the math does not support that, adjust something.
What has to happen to support that?
Make that happen. Then Tesla wins.
From a velocity perspective at one car every 30 seconds, 6 days, 2 ten hour shifts is 750,000 cars a year. Camary sold 429K
<snip>
It's going to be a loooooong wait. You'll probably die angry.I think you are right. I had better wait for the $26K price point.
This is great. I just want the team to be successful with the factory. I don't see a lot of cost in the 3. It is well done. Frontal area and Cd are close to impossible to beat. That translates directly into battery cost for range. It is a good shape. Make a lot of those. Anything else will lose range/market or add cost.It's going to be a loooooong wait. You'll probably die angry.
Does no one on this thread think that the OP is a troll? He/she is doing a great job of getting a rise out of a lot of people.
It's working because there is so much fundamental, outspoken confusion going on here: you've got a smorgasbord of faulty premises, business naiveté, bad analysis, etc. It's like a magnet for attempts at correction and helpful guidance.Does no one on this thread think that the OP is a troll? He/she is doing a great job of getting a rise out of a lot of people.
If Tesla was artificially increasing the list price by $7500 to capture the federal tax credit, that would arguably be contrary to the "legislative intent." I experienced that very situation in 2001 when I purchased a new bifuel Chevy Cavalier that was sold for list price only, when any gasoline-only Chevy Cavalier's price would have been significantly reduced with a little dickering. But in 2001 Arizona had generous alt fuels tax credits and Chevrolet wanted to capture as much of them as possible. So the original poster has it 180 degrees backwards - or is a bored troll. I am trusting that Tesla needs $35,000 out of every car irrespective of tax credits, and if so, prices should not be reduced by one cent after the tax credits expire, unless, of course, they can't sell the cars without discounting them.Sometimes incentives are abused, or gamed, which does not seem right. Is manufacturing and delivering as many cars as possible inside the credit window abusive?
The $7500 EV tax credit is there to create low cost production capacity of EVs, with the goal of competitive pricing after the incentive goes away. The behavior most consistent with that goal is to build a factory that can satisfy the entire demand inside the full rebate window. This maximizes production capability and efficiency, and is the best path to a "when we are all done" price that is as low as the credit incentivized price, say $26,000 dollars.
The goal of the program is a Model 3 that is profitably sold for $26,000 without incentives. Tesla is not supposed to just close up shop when the incentives expire. Manufacturing efficiencies are supposed to have improved to where $26,000 is the market price - cars move at that price without government help.
Tesla should be planning price reductions to match the incentive phase out schedule.
With that in mind, it is in Tesla's and the public's best interest to deliver as many cars as possible in the 2 quarter window of the $35,000 price point. They make $9K more per car than they do after they honor the price reductions implicit in the bill.
This says they produce 400,000 cars in 6 months. Then lower the price. It sounds like Henry Ford.
Does this sound right to you?
Nope. $35,000 (the current average new car prices) sounds right, maybe higher. As for the rest, Tesla is exactly what we want from the $7,500 incentive. EV manufacturing in the US with car the public wants.
There are also other reasons for the incentive as oil using vehicles have huge costs in pollution (climate change), imports (trade deficit) and national security (oil wars, $17T oil war debt, terrorism).
Actually, my math?, says they make more profit at $26K.
The factory capitalization gets smeared out over 2 to 3 to 4 times as many vehicles.
It's working because there is so much fundamental, outspoken confusion going on here: you've got a smorgasbord of faulty premises, business naiveté, bad analysis, etc. It's like a magnet for attempts at correction and helpful guidance.
Thank you.*The average price of a midsize car is $25,000
*The average price of a hybrid/alternate energy car is $26,000
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You don't seem to understand the difference between revenue and profit.