Bet ValueAnalyst at your own risk

[ValueAnalyst]

Yep, that's why I don't put any $ on short term speculations. It's all stocks, and now some LEAPS for me. I don't like some of the entry point on my LEAPS recently, but consider myself lucky that I didn't get into any short term bets with real money.

It's near impossible to ever like an entry point in a LEAP. The chances of picking the exact day/time for a purchase price is near zero, and because options are so volatile, the emotional swings of liking/disliking are exaggerated.

It seems to me that you and I think and invest very similarly.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

tl;dr: If Tesla is $1000 by next June I'll FedEx a bottle of Gran Patrón Platinum to a P.O. Box of your choosing. Next June's not enough time.

Deal, but Café Patron.

 

[Alketi]

Deal, but Café Patron.

This? What's your counter offer? I'll give you odds down to $800.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This? What's your counter offer? I'll give you odds down to $800.

Haha yep, that!

Wait, your initial offer, which I have already accepted, didn't say anything about a counter.

 

[Alketi]

Wait, your initial offer, which I have already accepted, didn't say anything about a counter.

HAHA, no worries. If the share price is $1000 by next June there will be coffee tequila coming your way.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

HAHA, no worries. If the share price is $1000 by next June there will be coffee tequila coming your way.

Deal. I have the shot glasses ready.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Since this is where I keep track of my bets:

 

[Alketi]

Since this is where I keep track of my bets:


View attachment 252382

I think you could have talked Donn down to 200K total. Maybe even 150K. We need to work on the negotiation tactics!

 

[Alketi]

I think you could have talked Donn down to 200K total. Maybe even 150K. We need to work on the negotiation tactics!

Well, VA, I'll take the bet with you that Donn Bailey should have --

Model 3 2018 deliveries will be closer to 150K than the 270K you're now predicting.

210K is a push.

 

[elasalle]

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

OK shall we call this bet over, or shall we wait till EOY

 

[ValueAnalyst]

OK shall we call this bet over, or shall we wait till EOY

It ain't over 'till...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Well, VA, I'll take the bet with you that Donn Bailey should have --

Model 3 2018 deliveries will be closer to 150K than the 270K you're now predicting.

210K is a push.

Deal

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@Fallenone: Powerpack + Powerwall revenue will be less than $1B in 2018.

@ValueAnalyst: Deal. I'll take the upside.

 

[zdriver]

If semi deposits/reservations are =>$1B by end of 2017, I'll pretend to eat a sock, chewing and all. (Then I'll spit it out)

If I'm wrong, my call options will be worth more than enough to make up for some sock chewing.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If semi deposits/reservations are =>$1B by end of 2017, I'll pretend to eat a sock, chewing and all. (Then I'll spit it out)

If I'm wrong, my call options will be worth more than enough to make up for some sock chewing.

Deal I love the type of bets where I don't have to do anything if I lose.

Similar to how @D-egg-O will send me his dividends if Tesla pays any by 2020.

Win - No Lose

 

[D-egg-O]

Deal I love the type of bets where I don't have to do anything if I lose.

Similar to how @D-egg-O will send me his dividends if Tesla pays any by 2020.

Win - No Lose

Woah woah woah. I said I would send you the first dividend only. Sheesh.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Woah woah woah. I said I would send you the first dividend only. Sheesh.

Tried to slip that one in there but you're a smart cookie

 

[ValueAnalyst]

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

Accept.

@elasalle You win; I lose.

@ValueAnalyst: Short interest as a percentage of outstanding shares will decline below 10% by end-2017 and 5% by end-2018.

@SteveG3: No way. Short interest and FUD will remain higher than 10% into 2020s.

@Alketi: Really? I project things differently. I don't think the short interest ever goes away.

@SteveG3 You win; I lose.

I am now 1-2 on my bets.

 

[DurandalAI]

Reminds me of my prediction early in 2017 for 30,000 copies of Model 3 in 2017. Far far from that number, disappointingly. But at least the Model 3 will be in the top 10 BEVs for December and likely the top 4 in January of this year. VA, on M3 production we were both off by a long ways.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Reminds me of my prediction early in 2017 for 30,000 copies of Model 3 in 2017. Far far from that number, disappointingly. But at least the Model 3 will be in the top 10 BEVs for December and likely the top 4 in January of this year. VA, on M3 production we were both off by a long ways.

Depends on how you define off. I was certainly off by more than you, but if defined as number of weeks you may be only off by 3 to 5 weeks, which is nothing for a long-term investor, as I assume that you are.