Bigger Model S battery before Gen 3?

[clmason]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed before.

Will Telsa introduce a bigger battery before the Gen 3 is available? And if they do offer a 100kwh+ pack, how would that change things?

In two years a used Model S 60kwh will come down to a price that is within reach to a lot more people. I personally could see buying a used 60kwh then upgrading the battery after a year or two of saving up.

Point being, used Model S market with eventual battery pack upgrades could take a lot of pressure off Gen 3 developent. While I, along with many others, are holding out for gen 3 due to the price, going used could get my foot in the door. Knowing a battery upgrade is just a simple purchase and quick install seems like a game changer.

It buys Telsa time to hold out for the battery tech they really need for a compelling $30k-$40k gen 3. The used S market may be very strong over the next 5 years. If they build them, people will buy them, new or used.

Well, just a thought on Saturday AM as my family is still snoozing. Have a great weekend, I hope you S owners are going for Sunday Drives!

PS- limited edition S's. I hope they come soon and you early adopts trade up, fueling the Used S market. I just may get one.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Maybe, but I don't think so.

The Supercharger network takes care of a lot of range issues and more capacity would have limited appeal. Their price targets are extremely aggressive and they're trying to get to Gen 3, so I think they'd be more likely to pursue the same capacity at higher density with lower price/higher margin. Post Gen 3, they might be able to go crazy and introduce a Tesla Model S 130 Performance OMFG Plus or something.

 

[SCW-Greg]

I've said this before, with the Model X, with two motors and AWD option, I believe they will introduce a larger pack to give that version the same 300 mile range that the S has now. It would not look so good to have an AWD model with max range of a 40 or 60KWh S.

If true, I wouldn't be surprised if it is even a bit better than 300 miles. Also seems more plausible that the launch of the X was pushed back, presumedly while they test, refine, get some new Panasonic cells produced, etc.

 

[RDoc]

While I think the Supercharger network is a great thing, IMHO it's no where near large enough to give anything like complete coverage. There are many trips I've taken where a Tesla with the current range and proposed Supercharging network would be quite inconvenient. As SCW-Greg points out, that will only get worse with the model X. Whether the answer is a bigger battery or many more Supercharger stations, I'm not sure, but the while the current batteries and Supercharger network plans are OK, they are very far from enough. My plan is to rent an ICE once or twice a year after I get the X.

 

[Mayhemm]

Personally, I would rather see a bigger battery than more superchargers. The SC network is very US-centric (as is appropriate for an American company) but a bigger battery would be of benefit no matter where you are. Especially somewhere like Canada with sparse population and long distances.

 

[smorgasbord]

I've said this before, with the Model X, with two motors and AWD option, I believe they will introduce a larger pack to give that version the same 300 mile range that the S has now.

Ayup.

 

[TD1]

Since Tesla was compared several times to Apple, I wouldn't be to sure about the price degradation of a Model S.
If it comes to Apple Products they are the most price stable bar none.
A Used Macbook loses way less in price over time then any other Notebook, we could argue why thats the case.
But I think as long as the Model S is absolutely superior to any EV and GenIII isn't out the used prices wont drop by that high margin.
Also a big used market will only then occur if
1. the Model S sucks and the owners want to go back to ICE
or
2. Model X satisfies their need more then the Model S

3. Model S 2.0 is released

4. A different carmaker produces an EV that is superior to the Model S

I think 1., 3. and 4. are highly unlikely for the next 5-6 years


and the Model X transistion will be mainly in 2014 I think, so the used Model S market will open up a little in end 2014 begin 2015 and will get pretty tight from there on again.