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Bitcoins, anyone?

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by stealthology, Aug 30, 2013.

  1. stealthology

    stealthology Member

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    Hi all,

    I know a decent chunk of you all are/were Tesla investors and we all know how that went.

    Is anyone into Bitcoins on here? I admit, if you would have asked me last week about them I'd have been like 'wtf that's probably a scam or something'. I knew hardly anything about them until my girlfriend explained it to me the other day and I did some research. Very, very interesting concept and pretty hard to grasp how it works at first. Seems like we have a decent risk/reward here. I am thinking of snatching up a starter bitcoin position, and seriously consider snagging more if/when it drops.

    Looks like the most reputable 'brokers' would be CoinBase, Bitstamp, LocalBitoins.com (and Mt. Gox, but they seem to be a lot of media hype).

    Anyone into this stuff?
     
  2. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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  3. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    It's been a good investment so far. Got in when it was trading at around $85 and now at $130. Performed better than TSLA in the last two months. Don't know why you would want to stay away? It's here to stay I guess, and is the biggest and most established digital currency. With all the ASIC mining software coming online this autumn difficulty in mining is going to skyrocket, so a lot of people who have been investing in the mining aspect of BTC will go straight to buying the currency outright instead. I expect $200 per BTC come year's end.
     
  4. fiksegts

    fiksegts Active Member

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    I've got some at $90..... no risk no reward... I think it could really blow up in a huge way so I wanted to have a piece of it...
     
  5. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    I'm an ASIC miner myself.

    I've done some research on the expected influx of all the ASIC hardware from all the various ASIC manufacturers. I expect a cap of around 11x difficulty increase by January if every manufacturer out there delivers every device they've committed to on time (yes, even BFL). i.e. Difficulty of 761-ish.

    It's enough to shake out every existing non-ASIC miner in the world (and most existing ASIC miners as well), but it's not as bad as people make it out to be.

    The thing is after the next 10x growth, the difficulty graph should rapidly change into a sigmoid function. You can't really make an ASIC chip much faster from this point on. Double, yes, but the 100x growth/$ that happened between GPU and ASIC can't happen again. ASIC 28nm miners are pretty close to state of the art in chip manufacturing.

    To scale further means more physical devices. So the people who advocate based on the current 110% historical difficulty saying we're going to see a difficulty rate in the millions by next year are a bit out there. BFL is not going to manufacture a billion miners at $1 each...

    My bet is instead we'll see around 600 difficulty by end of this year, 1100 by May of next year, and 4000 by end of next year. So if you're satisfied with a 1-year return on a miner, AND you can pay less than 0.120 BTC per GH/s AND get around 1W per GH/s, mining may still be profitable (in BTC at least - who knows in fiat).

    Of course, nobody yet has a shipping product at 0.12 BTC per GH/s, but there are a few upcoming (BFL Monarch, Cointerra TerraMiner, HashFast Baby Jet, KncMiner Jupiter). The question is which horse to back.
     
  6. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    I briefly looked into mining at one point (As many others on these forums I'm a software engineer who loves to tinker with things) but based on the short research I did, it would cost more in electricity and cooling then I would get back in return for mining. So my question to you is, how is it possible that you're making money doing this? Do you not pay for electricity? I thought that break even point was crossed a year or so ago and you'd just lose money every hour now instead of make money.
     
  7. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    I have a 20 Ghash/s contract with cloudhashing.com with mining starting Sept 26th. Yes I know they've used my mpney tp buy ASIC chips that they started mining with probably 2-3 weeks ago, and that for every day that goes by difficulty is going up, resulting in a days worth of mining now is worth a lot more than the same day in a few months. BUT I'm with you deonb in that the difficultu curve will flatten out after a while. That coupled with the fact that I see BTC vs. USD/EUR/etc. going up makes me pretty confident I'll recoupe my investment in less than 6 months, and then have 18 months of mining for pure profit. Cloud services make sense for me when it comes to mining. Economics of scale and all that.
     
  8. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    That was then.

    ASIC miners created an order of magnitude performance increase against the same power usage, so electricity is less of an issue with ASIC miners (for now at least). What is more of the issue is recouping your ROI. I expect electricity to become the gating factor again in a year or so.

    The future of the mining business changes on a day-to-day basis. It makes Tesla's volatility look like a T-note :).
     
  9. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    I don't see how its possible to support that statement. Bitcoin is under review by U.S. regulatory agencies (and probably in the E.U. as well), and the folks I've spoken to who work in and around the U.S. government expect to drop the hammer before the year is out, or by 2014 at the latest if a determination is made that new legislation will be required.

    Current activities -

    Forget piracy, U.S. government is going after Bitcoin | VentureBeat
    Every Important Person In Bitcoin Just Got Subpoenaed By New York's Financial Regulator - Forbes
    Thailand Run : Reason.com
    U.S. feds make their first-ever Bitcoin seizure

    Middle ground -

    Why Bitcoin lives in a | Ars Technica

    Alternative view of someone who obviously is on crack -

    Government Ban On Bitcoin Would Fail Miserably - Forbes

    Discussion of the real economic flaws underpinning the system -

    Golden Cyberfetters - Paul Krugman *Betting against Paul Krugman is a relatively straightforward way to lose money.
    Bitcoin is ludicrous, but it tells us something important about the nature of money *Ezra is just plain smart

    Frankly, its just a modern version of the gold standard, economically speaking. The only advantage that I see is that it might be a handy tool if you want to break the law. But I think it is fairly overrated even in that capacity.

    And if the U.S. decides to regulate it out of existence, I'll bet on the NSA before I bet on Bitcoin.
     
  10. wallet.dat

    wallet.dat Member

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    I started mining late 2010 with an ATI 5870. I quit after difficulty started getting way too difficult and could only mine maybe 2 BTC a day. In retrospect I should have kept at it, but I'm sitting on a pretty nice stockpile of coins at this point.
     
  11. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    What mostly have been taking flack (when governments actually try and understand things rather than like Thailand just passing random laws) isn't BitCoin itself, but some of the business practices surrounding this.

    E.g. Mt Gox acts as an exchange & bank, which should be subject to banking rules but which they don't comply with. A little bit more regulation in banking level areas isn't a bad thing. There should be guarantees between the time you send off your coins to a central party and the time you get it back. So where financial services are involved, regulation is prudent. Nobody wants BitCoin to be littered with ponzi schemes and scams.

    Contrast Thailand to Germany, where BitCoin is now an official unit of accounting.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100971898

    For that matter, even Texas declared it an official currency:
    http://rt.com/usa/bitcoin-sec-shavers-texas-231/


    I'm glad that you say it's akin to a gold standard. At least it's backed by something real, which is the tremendous amount of computational power provided by the BitCoin mines, which exists to keep the integrity of the transaction system alive. I believe we're now at a stage that even the largest worldwide BotNet can't create a fake transaction anymore. Now compare that to how easily cash is forged.

    The huge advantage of BitCoin is that it provides the only secure form of payment on the internet where the customer is in real control of his money. Any centralized system is subject to central vulnerabilities and get their information leaked all the time. How many times have you received a new credit card just because some or other way your previous one was compromised?

    So now we have to guard our credit card numbers for dear life, and even then you get screwed every now and again because of someone else's fault. I've once left for a 14 day trip to Europe only to have my credit card revoked while I was on the flight over as a precautionary measure about a web site that was cracked 3 months prior! Not fun trying to get a new card issued from 5000 miles away when you move countries every 2 days.

    In contrast, here's my BitCoin wallet address. Knock yourself out. You aint getting a penny (or a satoshi) out of it that I don't want you to have.
    19KBY9fAGRfbZ9r2GCnSSYf2pgYyqBQ45N


    The NSA can archive every transaction in the blockchain if they want. Doing so would give them much better traceability than a cash transaction would ever get them. If you have a bitcoin address, try the following. Click on:
    http://whatismyipaddress.com/

    Then find your IP address, and type it into blockchain.info:
    http://blockchain.info

    It's a bit muddled, but essentially most of your transactions are there.

    Or alternatively, look at this test example. The following is 'BTC Guild', a mining pool, sending some BTC to me (green arrow), followed by me sending it somewhere else (red arrow). In 2 transactions, you have found my exact IP and approximate address, complete with map and everything, by starting from either 'BTC Guild', linking forward, or the guy I sent the money to, linking backwards.

    Bitcoin.png

    Sure you need to start SOMEWHERE first (like finding someone's wallet and work backwards from there, or hey, just start from the IP address - something easily obtainable by law enforcement). But this is not an untraceable currency by any means. It provides MORE transparency than you would ever be able to get with case or even with wire transfers. The NSA will love it.
     
  12. wallet.dat

    wallet.dat Member

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    I'm still trying to get used to them being over $1 heh
     
  13. W.Petefish

    W.Petefish Active Member

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    I am working on building my own mining rig using FPGAs. (low cost, high core count, can be upgraded on the fly)
     
  14. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    As opposed to using ASICs?

    Why?
     
  15. W.Petefish

    W.Petefish Active Member

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  16. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    I started mining BTC around April, but discovered soon that it's not really worthwhile. Since then I've kept up a bit with the alternative coins. They provide far higher returns as they are extremely volatile. I also mine alternatives (Florin coin for example seems to have become high income stable coin that is about 5x-7x more profitable than BTC). However I always convert all the alternates to BTC and withdraw to my wallet in 1 BTC increments. So mining without ASICs is still profitable :)
     
  17. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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  18. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Bitcoin value drops after FBI shuts Silk Road drugs site

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology

     
  19. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    It's back up close to where it used to be. Bitcoin is no longer that dependent on sites like Silk Road, so after the initial shock, people bought back in.

    But the dip was sweet - I got some at a 20% discount yesterday :).

    Bitcoin has been under severe attack over the last week, DDOS'ing the largest pools, forum was hacked, DPR got arrested, and yet the currency is holding up well.
     
  20. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Trading at $181 today at MtGox.com. Just sayin'. Don't hate on the Bitcoins.
     

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