@jhm, a few thoughts to chew on.
Since this thread was started (May 28, 2015), TTM revenues have increased 7.3X while market cap has increased just a bit more (8.3X).
I would argue that revenue increases alone understates Tesla's performance in that time period, as operating margins have gone from strongly negative to moderately positive, free cash flow has gone from strongly negative to moderately positive, risks have decreased substantially, etc.
In other words, I think TSLA is priced lower now than it was when you started this thread in 2015 relative to performance, risk, future potential and valuation. It may feel different now because we have had such a rapid share price increase in the past 12 months, but that came after ~5 years of TSLA bouncing around in a fairly narrow range while the company grew dramatically.
Another issue is that from the very beginning the LTPTs sounded insanely optimistic but in fact are very conservative once you assume ~50% annual growth.
For example, Elon's original napkin math was that 50% annual growth would result in $350B in revenue in 2025, and with estimated 10% margins that would generate $35B in profit. But to get a market cap of $700B he applied a P/E of only 20.
In 2025, if Tesla has a 15+ year record of 50% annual growth and is still growing strongly as Elon's more recent targets like multiple Terawatt-hours per year suggest, then a P/E of 20 is ridiculous. Amazon has a P/E well over 100, and its growth is far less than Tesla's.
The other wrinkle is Full Self Driving, which was barely in the picture in 2015. It seems to me that at this stage for a "blind faith" valuation should have a scenario that assumes that Tesla will succeed at Full Self Driving within a reasonable period of time. Of course that leaves the challenge of estimating what success looks like, what a reasonable period of time is, and what successful FSD would add to the bottom line.