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Bloomberg’s at 5,187 now. :)
- Thread starter M109Rider
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My feeling is that Bloomberg is not as interested in this tool anymore since production ramped up to good numbers.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
And/or they realized that Tesla was operating in a way to actively mess with it, and/or realized that patterns of self-reporting VIN was probably going to change and the percentage of owners reporting was going to drop, both meaning that the tracking method becomes less reliable even if they did stay on top of it. So now they have a page generating views, easier to just let it coast.
Another batch of 409 a few hours ago for Bloomberg to ignore. They are currently showing 4,495 per week, then up over 6,000 shortly. Haven't been seeing many people submitting VINs over 60,000 lately either. Only 3 up there.
RT
RT
A full completed month into Q3, Bloomberg only estimates 16,000 or so new Model 3's produced. That would be an average rate of 3,613/week.
Are they truly behind, more than before? Of course as the number get bigger, error margin increases.
Are they truly behind, more than before? Of course as the number get bigger, error margin increases.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Average of 3.6K/week is in the ballpark of what I expected, given Tesla's pattern so far this year. I don't think what Bloomberg is doing will be all that accurate at the weekly level, too much lag and Tesla has too many production swings. But at the monthly level it's probably a lot more inline.
Tom Randall : Outliers aren’t manually filtered. We did a few early on, but our model skips highest reported VINs. For registrations, we simply ignore the tiny batches (hundreds or less). Whenever there’s a significant batch (000s) we take the highest VIN, so the mini batches get lumped in
691 should be an easy day's production. Only makes sense if they are now consistently register such batches daily, as in 7 days per week.
Weren't there talks of 6,000 a week already, or was that in light of the 7,000 (S3X) peak week end of Q2?
Weren't there talks of 6,000 a week already, or was that in light of the 7,000 (S3X) peak week end of Q2?
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ℬête Noire
Active Member
They aimed at getting each section of the line M3 process to 6K/week to be able to hit the 5K/week overall, because you never quite get perfect meshing of each step of production with the next you need that extra capacity slack in each.
It's been a joke for a while now. The week Elon tweeted that they did 5k Model 3s, it wasn't showing anything close. It's never shown 5k at all (except for when this thread was started, and then it was adjusted down).
5 weeks from the Q2 result, Bloomberg sees 19,000 cars. 3,800 average. Tesla claims 5,000?
Then they would be on track for a really high sales number in Q3. Especially if they reduce the in-transit volume by delivering locally late in Q3. Which will be a challenge with a much thicker pipeline. 90-100K cars total might be on the cards. Will be hard to book a loss.
Then they would be on track for a really high sales number in Q3. Especially if they reduce the in-transit volume by delivering locally late in Q3. Which will be a challenge with a much thicker pipeline. 90-100K cars total might be on the cards. Will be hard to book a loss.
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