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Bloomberg’s at 5,187 now. :)

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by M109Rider, Jul 8, 2018.

  1. Relayer

    Relayer Member

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    FYI: ;)
    Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) Tweeted:
    #Tesla registered 7,903 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 89107. Recalls Model 3 VINs on Twitter
     
  2. Benihect

    Benihect Member

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    They have since said all 2625 were AWD. In addition to another 7k plus registered today all AWD as well
     
    • Like x 1
  3. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    Whoa, 7,903 dual motor VINS registered yesterday. :D

    Note to Bloomberg: Please update your painfully out of date graph to include the 10,000+ VINs that have been registered that you purport to be tracking :p

    Might have to rename the website Bloomberg Fake Modeling...

    [​IMG]

    And here is todays graph showing no change since July 28th, 8 days ago:

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Yuri_G

    Yuri_G Member

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    Seems like they've given up now that production has ramped, more or less.
     
  5. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    Add another 3,609 as of this morning. I think we are up to about 12,000 that Bloomberg isn't acknowledging. Their website states that it was updated this morning.

    RT
     
    • Like x 1
  6. BobCio

    BobCio Member

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    Yep, highest VIN is now 92929. At this pace, our VINs for M3s will need the extra digit... 100000. I want that one! (Actually I want ANY VIN! ha)
    - #Tesla registered 3,609 new #Model3 VINs. ~82% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 92929.
     
  7. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Bloomberg nog sees 20,030 car made since Q2 ended. In under 37 days, so still 3,800 per week. They'll be catching up, or adjusting when an official number happens to hit. I suspect only end Q3.
    If true that Tesla kept going at 5,000, even hitting 6,000 only at end Q3 would (without shutdowns) result in 69,000 Model 3's, let's say 84,000 total Q3. Could they work down in-transit cars by end Q3? Difficult with consistent ~6,000/wk production (we started the Q with just 2 weeks worth of cars in that sense). They could lose 10K or more in production vs sales, which is costly when trying to book first profitable quarter.
     
  8. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Hah, Tesla going crazy with VINs, trying to use Bloomberg to kill off the shorts before we even get to the end of the quarter? ;-) Would be fun to aim at 100,000 total cars for Q3 (produced, let alone sold), but that will be hard for Q3. Q4 might get it in at least one count.
     
  9. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    92,929 VINs reflected now.
     
  10. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Bloomberg sees some 32,000 Model 3 cars built since the start of the quarter. The VIN sightings do seem to be dense near 80,000. Might the 3 production be there already? Or are the gaps significant?
    Even their model comes to 4,364 per week over these 51 days. It really seems to me they are on track for 90K+ cars this quarter, and may even produce 100,000 although delivering will be difficult with such a widening pipeline, even after catching up the intentional Q2 delays. If Tesla wants a MASSIVE sales number, and 100,000 would for sure be tempting, focusing deliveries end of quarter to locations close to Fremont will be important. Not to places with long transit times. With all the negativity, 100K cars would be a shocker after 53K last time around. The stocked cars late Q2 that were a loss of income are now an opportunity, if they can do the exact opposite.
     
  11. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    The brand is called Tesla and they have 40,000-odd employees.
     
  12. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Almost 60,000 cars extimated and sill over 3 weeks to go for the quarter.
    Still on track for around 80,000 Model 3? With production now shifted to Domestic orders such as SR(+), the delivered number might again be close to the produced one. Although I still don't know how last quarter ended with just 1,100 units in transit. With 80,000 Model 3 and various price changes in S/X, 105,000 total might be on the cards.
    Good news for the many new owners, but a Q1 loss is to be anticipated anyway.
     
  13. M109Rider

    M109Rider Active Member

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    I’m aware of the brand and employees. :)
    You missed the context, and this is called semantics.
     
  14. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    I call it religion attribute so many going ons to one person.
     
  15. M109Rider

    M109Rider Active Member

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    Or Semantics. :)
     
  16. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Barely any more Model 3s this past quarter. Where does Tesla think they are on their S curve? From the data, it looks like they've hit a ceiling. And they touched it already mid-2018.
    Can this somehow be explained as a positive? This seems extremely bad for their future as a company. You cannot grow if you can't grow.
    S/X sales more than HALVED, that's insane. Even with cannibalization from Model 3.
    Seems they really dragged out the long needed S/X refresh out too long. And since people just want a hatchback, how could simply making a Model S Wagon NOT end up in production staying where it was, self limiting rather than demand limited? You can't impress the neighbor with a "new" Model S sedan because he got the V3 charging Model 3. Model S can't tow, it can't V3, etc. Had it been a big looking wagon... "Hiya neighbor, you got the cute letterbox? I opted for the large wagon."

    Very,very dire, in my opinion. We all agree they can do better, but it's hard to find why they aren't.

    And now we really need to ask, where is US Model 3 demand if you disregard SR? Seems they barely covered exports in Q1 and barely delivered anything locally. Are they SO production constrained? On the steep part of the S curve, Elon said??
    What are they realistically going to change to go from <5,000 to 10,000 a week which was a goalpost set for the past? They already have the tent as extra production line that was not taking into account. In a normal company, heads would roll. I fear this is all Elon. Overruling the people in charge, after which they decide to take a sabbatical without the will to return.
     

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