Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

[AviP]

It looks to me like we are looking at a goal to make a sustained 1000/week for the last 2 or 3 weeks in Q1. The 2500/week goal is still way out in the future. The goal of 5000/week is not happening until 2019. I am optimistic that Tesla will make 5000/week and that the Model 3 will be a big success, But it will take a lot longer to do that.

When they solve the current problem and make 1000/week for 3 weeks in a row, Then that will stress the supply chain more than it has ever seen in the past, and so they will have new problems to resolve.

This is not a battery issue alone. This is a issue with the entire supply chain. when they solve one problem, they will never shoot up drastically in volume. They will only go up to where the next problem comes to the surface. Progress will be in little steps.

That's a very good point. Fixing one bottleneck usually leads to finding the next one and so on and so forth.

As to the timing, I still have to go by simple math. 500K pre-orders, assume 10% cancelled so Tesla has 450K pre-orders. 10K produced so far, so that's 440K pre-orders to fulfill. Assuming 1K/wk in Q1(remainder), 2.5K/wk in Q2 and 5K/Q3 as our optimistic production rates, we'll get ~5K in Q1, ~30K in Q2, ~65K in Q3 and continue at that rate for the rest of production. So that would optimistically add another 165K cars at most in 2018. That leaves an unfulfilled backlog or 440-165K = 275K. AT 65K/quarter, we are talking Q1 2020 for fulfilling all pre-orders.

And that assumes no bottlenecks, which I think is unreasonable. So mid- to late-2020 is a reasonable expectation.

 

[DanL3]

As to the timing, I still have to go by simple math. 500K pre-orders, assume 10% cancelled so Tesla has ......

10% cancelled is way off. By the end of the year the cancel rate... Or rather the cancel + I won't configure rate will be closer to 50% rather than 10%.

 

[ChrisH]

10% cancelled is way off. By the end of the year the cancel rate... Or rather the cancel + I won't configure rate will be closer to 50% rather than 10%.

I hope you are right (so i can get my car ASAP)but where do you get that estimate from?

 

[DanL3]

I hope you are right (so i can get my car ASAP)but where do you get that estimate from?

I found the 50% number in a business article about Tesla. I think it was based on what happened on the Model S.

 

[ChrisH]

I found the 50% number in a business article about Tesla. I think it was based on what happened on the Model S.

Ah. The S is a way more expensive car. I could see maybe 1 in 4 cancelling or not immediately configuring but that’s after the initial 200k delivered or so I would think.

 

[bro1999]

Very interesting that Bloomberg's tracker has the weekly 3 production rate decreasing the last few weeks. What is going on? The reported production line shutdown(s) last month must have evidently been true.

 

[TheDoktor]

Very interesting that Bloomberg's tracker has the weekly 3 production rate decreasing the last few weeks. What is going on? The reported production line shutdown(s) last month must have evidently been true.

Bloomberg has ZERO insight. They have access to no information that people here on the various forums have.

 

[ChrisH]

Bloomberg has ZERO insight. They have access to no information that people here on the various forums have.

I wouldn’t say ZERO insight. Thy are still getting information from those who know about their project and are providing VINS right?

Yes, their numbers aren’t 100% accurate but I think it is a decent guide/tool to help us see trends. Just because they aren’t glued to this forum like we are doesn’t mean they don’t have ANYTHING useful.

 

[MikeDog77]

I am not sure if Bloomberg is accurate but it is EXACTLY what I would guess is the rate based on all the information/pictures that are here and other places around the web. So I find it very helpful and it saves me time from having to read though 1000's of post here and on twitter.

As far as the cancellation rate, Tesla doesn't care about that. A new survey out today says that 17% of Americas would buy a Tesla Model 3 right now for 40k. That is with 0 advertising and not even having a presence in many states. And that is only in the USA!!! The demand in Europe and China is even higher.

Tesla Model 3 Demand is Basically unlimited at the moment. They could easily sell 1,000,000 plus a year globally if they could make them.

 

[ChrisH]

I am not sure if Bloomberg is accurate but it is EXACTLY what I would guess is the rate based on all the information/pictures that are here and other places around the web. So I find it very helpful and it saves me time from having to read though 1000's of post here and on twitter.

As far as the cancellation rate, Tesla doesn't care about that. A new survey out today says that 17% of Americas would buy a Tesla Model 3 right now for 40k. That is with 0 advertising and not even having a presence in many states. And that is only in the USA!!! The demand in Europe and China is even higher.

Tesla Model 3 Demand is Basically unlimited at the moment. They could easily sell 1,000,000 plus a year globally if they could make them.

17% of americans? That seems like a lot. I feel like that survey must have been 17% of Americans who know what an electric car is haha. Still. That’s great! I want a $46,000 model and could make it work financially. They just have to be willing to sell me a $46,000 version!!

 

[MikeDog77]

17% of americans? That seems like a lot. I feel like that survey must have been 17% of Americans who know what an electric car is haha. Still. That’s great! I want a $46,000 model and could make it work financially. They just have to be willing to sell me a $46,000 version!!

Survey Says Big Surge In Tesla Inc (TSLA) Model 3 Sales Coming Soon

Above is where I read that. You actually bring up a good point. As electric car's continue to become more mainstream that number is bound to grow. The thing that really amazes me is how many teenagers(my daughter is 13) are obsessed and know about Tesla. It has to be the most desired car among the younger generation. Once again demand is not an issue.

And I hear you on your 46k model, I am still waiting for my $49,000 M3!!!

 

[ChrisH]

Survey Says Big Surge In Tesla Inc (TSLA) Model 3 Sales Coming Soon

Above is where I read that. You actually bring up a good point. As electric car's continue to become more mainstream that number is bound to grow. The thing that really amazes me is how many teenagers(my daughter is 13) are obsessed and know about Tesla. It has to be the most desired car among the younger generation. Once again demand is not an issue.

And I hear you on your 46k model, I am still waiting for my $49,000 M3!!!

Yeah. $46,000 is still A LOT for a car. That’s close to a $1000/mo payment. Kiddos are gonna have to wait a bit to get a Tesla I think. Nice to know they are interested though!

 

[SpiceWare]

Most kids I know end up with a used car (bought specifically for them, by [grand]parents or themselves) or a hand-me-down ([grand]parent bought themselves a new one). By the time that 13 year old is driving a used early model Tesla might be low enough in price.

 

[EVNow]

Survey Says Big Surge In Tesla Inc (TSLA) Model 3 Sales Coming Soon

Interesting survey by Munster. Here is the original link.

Last week we surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3. We found a surprisingly high number (17%) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by 3x, the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5%.

More People Interested in Buying a Model 3 Than You Think | Loup Ventures

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think the shape of the curve is pretty accurate even if the actual numbers are not. They have adjusted the numbers several times, so they are probably getting better with more data.

 

[mongo]

Random thought/ wishful thinking:
Fremont is stockpiling packs (and everything else) so that they have the parts needed to end Q1 with two solid weeks of 2.5k/wk production, and that is why production seems down. Untimately, they will make the same number in Q1, but a chunk of deliveries will get pushed to Q2.

I'll see myself out...

 

[bhzmark]

Interesting survey by Munster. Here is the original link.



More People Interested in Buying a Model 3 Than You Think | Loup Ventures

Thanks. That is an amazingly succinct and intelligent article. 17% of americans polled are interested in buying a Tesla at 40k, plus predicted m3 production yielding market share of 1.5%, up from .5 by end of year.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The tracker now includes a blog at the bottom with any info about updates. For example, it discusses the recently announced shutdown and how it relates to their model.

 

[RedOctober]

Like someone mentioned earlier in the thread, it would be nice to know if the German equipment has arrived. I was thinking that was the reason for the 4 days shutdown, they may have been installing the equipment at the GF and getting it online.

 

[kengchang]

Like someone mentioned earlier in the thread, it would be nice to know if the German equipment has arrived. I was thinking that was the reason for the 4 days shutdown, they may have been installing the equipment at the GF and getting it online.

It's supposed to arrive in March though according to the earning call