You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Thanks for the video but they are wrong about China. Imho China will be the biggest influence on Oil abandonment and EV adoption. They do what's right for them and its harder for Oil corporations to influence them. They already have 200m+ EVs. The impact will be sooner than they say as well, imho.
I think Steve J. confirmed this in one of the TMC Connect things.
Thanks for the video but they are wrong about China. Imho China will be the biggest influence on Oil abandonment and EV adoption. They do what's right for them and its harder for Oil corporations to influence them. They already have 200m+ EVs. The impact will be sooner than they say as well, imho.
I think Steve J. confirmed this in one of the TMC Connect things.
+1 for the video! Thanks!
I don't know... China is just piling up tens of thousands of barrels of oil daily in it's reservoirs with hundreds of millions of barrel capacity.
Eventually, but the sheer numbers will make this difficult until you get to a point where EV's are outnumbering ICE sales. When will that happen? The U.S. is a mature market so total fleet size is pretty static as ICE are retired in lieu of EV, the impact is bigger. However in China they are putting so many new cars on the road that it is new demand. JMO
But China should be an ideal EV market considering their pollution problems. I wonder how many miles the average Chinese driver does a day.
... A positive side effect for them is that as the current low price none of the alternative oil sources (fracking and oil sand) makes economical sense. ...
But there is the baby with the bathwater problem. It is also killing algae, synthetic diesel (natural gas), and CNG, which are more eco-friendly ICE propellants than raw petroleum is. Less sulfur, less CO2, less NOx.
Someday, EV powertrains will be the norm for passenger cars, but it will be a very long time before they can replace ICE completely. Jet aircraft, ships, towing vehicles, heavy trucks, farm equipment, construction equipment will be ICE for the foreseeable future. You simply cannot have an electric infrastructure that can replace liquid fuel for these applications.
So cleaner alternatives in ICE technology will always be a good thing.
You don't have to worry about low oil prices displacing natural gas opportunities in transportation. Oil trades at 2 to 4 times the price of natural gas per unit of energy. So as the price of one goes down the other goes down seeking an equilibrium around 3 times.
Consider the currently oil is at $34.40/b and natural gas at $1.636/MMBtu. Also 5.55 MMBTU / b. So the oil to gas ratio is at 34.40÷1.636÷5.55 = 3.78. This is a little at the high side so either oil needs to come down or natural gas needs to come up a bit.
So if you operate a fleet with both diesel and CNG vehicles, you will utilize more CNG when the ratio is high and less when it is low. This kind of switching behavior pushes the oil to gas ratio to equilibrium. Both oil and natural gas are in a glut.
And alternative fuels often come with a high social cost in the form of polluted water, earthquakes, deforestation, etc. (because we don't make corporations clean up the messes they cause).
But due to processing, storage, transportation, etc, CNG and biofuels cannot currently be self-supporting below IIRC $4 per gallon petro equivalent.
As long as petro fuel prices are deflated, the smaller companies (where innovation often happens) are dying in the alternative fuel segment.
The day when electricity can power commercial aircraft and heavy equipment is far, far away. Unless we just write off these uses to stay petroleum forever, you will need synthetic liquid fuel. The energy density is just too high to avoid it.
I think there will be battery powered commercial planes before the last ice is off the road.
- - - Updated - - -
I don't think heavy equipment is far, far off. Mabye far off but maybe not. If you had an interchangeable battery and sold the machine with two of them. As long as the battery can charge faster than the equipment discharges it it's plausible. Maybe not today but I could see something along that line to fit some applications very well.