Bloomberg Report - 200,000 units already surpassed? No tax credit?

[igotzzoom]

Does this mean the Model 3 will not be eligible for the $7,500 federal credit?

"Tesla delivered 25,000 vehicles in the first quarter, which vaulted its aggregate number of produced vehicles above 200,000. That milestone won’t be considered achieved until the company’s board has confirmed the number, according to the filing. The Palo Alto, California-based company has said it’ll begin building the more affordable Model 3 in July and has predicted its annual output could soar to 500,000 vehicles by 2018."
​

Musk Nearing $1.4 Billion Windfall as Tesla Achieves Milestones

 

[MorrisonHiker]

No. The tax credit starts to get phased out once they have sold 200,000 cars in the US, not 200,000 cars produced for the entire world.

 

[Topher]

NO! This is total global sales. Only US sales count for US tax credit. Also, once the 200,000 US sale is completed, there are several calendar quarters of full and then reduced credits.

Thank you kindly.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Inside EVs estimates put Tesla at about 120k sales as of March 1st. If Tesla's sales volume is also around 50k vehicles for all of 2017, they'll be at ~170k vehicles as of 2018Q1.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

They also have an estimation of tax credit expiration, with Tesla starting hitting 200k US sales in 2018Q2/Q3, seeing half of the federal credit in 2018Q4/2019Q1, and one quarter in 2019Q2/Q3.

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

Maximizing the tax credit is probably why Tesla has finalized the design and minimized complexity of the 3.

 

[dsvick]

Inside EVs estimates put Tesla at about 120k sales as of March 1st. If Tesla's sales volume is also around 50k vehicles for all of 2017, they'll be at ~170k vehicles as of 2018Q1.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

They also have an estimation of tax credit expiration, with Tesla starting hitting 200k US sales in 2018Q2/Q3, seeing half of the federal credit in 2018Q4/2019Q1, and one quarter in 2019Q2/Q3.

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

Maximizing the tax credit is probably why Tesla has finalized the design and minimized complexity of the 3.

Keep in mind that their credit expiration estimate is based on Tesla only producing and delivering 15,000 model 3s this year. I want to think that most of the other predictions I've seen call for hitting it in Q1. Of course they're all just speculation anyway.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Inside EVs estimates put Tesla at about 120k sales as of March 1st. If Tesla's sales volume is also around 50k vehicles for all of 2017, they'll be at ~170k vehicles as of 2018Q1.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Interesting, IIRC historically Tesla sells a little over 60% of their cars in the US. But according the your link, in Q1'17, Tesla sold only 10400 of the total 25000 Q1 sales in the US. That's a big shift in the market geographic breakdown.

 

[McHoffa]

If they hit 120k US deliveries by March 1, then that's 20k since sometime in December, which means they delivered 20k in 3 months, so that's 6.5k per month (the chart shows 10k in Q1 though in the US, so not sure which is right)

So in the time from March 1 to December 31, they would deliver 65k more, not counting any Model 3 deliveries. That would mean at December 31 they would be at 185k US deliveries (140k if the chart is right).

That would put them at 200k in Q1 2018, without even counting any Model 3 deliveries. At end of Q3, September 30, they would be at 165k without counting any Model 3 deliveries (or 130k if that chart is the correct figure).

Estimates are as high as 80k Model 3s this year. If Model 3 deliveries are on track, we're hitting 200k in Q4 for sure either way. I think the only way we won't hit 200k this year is if they get behind on production.

 

[JeffK]

I agree, even with Model 3 they are probably going to hit 200,000 (US deliveries) in Q1 2018, especially if some early Model 3 are going to the Canadian west coast..

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think it's more likely they'll hit 200k in Q4 2017. Close to 100% of initial production of the Model 3 will go to the US, and that's likely something in the 50k-75k area for 2017.

 

[JeffK]

I think it's more likely they'll hit 200k in Q4 2017. Close to 100% of initial production of the Model 3 will go to the US, and that's likely something in the 50k-75k area for 2017.

Well close to 100% will go to North America.
From the FAQ

Once production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east.

Elon said they would try to maximize the US Tax credit. The smartest way to do that is to delay the 200,000th car until January 1st so the full tax credit will end at the end of June instead of at the end of March. The worst thing possible would be delivering that car on Dec 31st.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Agree with Jan 1st.

 

[JeffK]

Agree with Jan 1st.

Yes, if they had full ramp up (125,000 cars/quarter) then by not delaying, that's nearly half a billion dollars in tax credit they'd be giving up for consumers.

 

[McHoffa]

I hope so, because while I'll probably be getting the one I stood in line for in Q4, the one I ordered prior to reveal will probably be Q2 2018

 

[JeffK]

I'm just hoping for full tax credit on a Performance version. I might be pushing my luck.