Blue Origin: Future Plans

[Grendal]

The New Glenn is much bigger rocket than the F9. The animation shows a pretty big ship to land on. SpaceX punched a hole in the ASDS for SES-9. I'd hate to see BO sink their ship in the early stages of their landing attempts. I think it is quite possible though.

Even though BO did very well with the New Shepard for landing and recovery, I think it is a little premature to assume that moving up to the New Glenn will be a simple upgrade as some seem to be doing. There are a vast amount of new variables involved in an orbital landing profile over a suborbital hop like the New Shepard did. I wish BO the best of luck but I am expecting to see a number of failures with New Glenn before they have a successful landing. It took SpaceX around 15 launches and 8 real attempts at a landing before they actually had one work. That's not even considering that BO is basically building the rocket from scratch too. Unless they have some magical formula, most new rockets have a spectacular failure early on in their development. I really hope it doesn't happen to BO but we shouldn't assume that it won't.

 

[RDoc]

The whole question of if there's a commercial market for such heavy lift is interesting. As has been pointed out, since it's not been available up to now, there is really not much demand. However, with Falcon Heavy available next year (hopefully) and New Glenn sometime in the early 20's, that will change.

The comparison between New Glenn and Falcon Heavy is interesting to me. Falcon Heavy has much more mass to orbit capacity, but New Glenn has much more volumetric capacity. Cost is totally unknown of course, but my guess is that the Falcon Heavy might well be cheaper since more of the launch system comes back for re-use, but who knows?

 

[cronosx]

SpaceX of course has the advantage of having a well defined mission statement that is driven by Elon’s personal ambition to colonize Mars. When I go to Blue Origin I cannot find a mission statement for BO. Sure, lowering the cost to orbit, taking tourists into space, but those things don’t fire the imagination in the same way.

Actually, Jeff Bezos explained the mission in a good way ( while not 'inspirational', it's the real reason ) during a ted talk, i don't remember when.. but the point is, he said something like "Amazon was successfull only because the infrastructure needed was already in place, we had high speed roads, we had company that ship at reasonable price, someone built the internet, someone built paypal, credit card etc, we 'just' needed to unify all and do our job, that was sell books. If we needed to make paypal from scratch we woulnd't be successfull. What i'm doing with BO is build the infrastructure with the right cost in a way that someone one day could say 'ok, we have all the infrastructure, now we could.. ' and do whatever they want, putting up satellite for whatever reason, bring people in space, go mining asteroids, whatever. none of this will happend without the infrastrucutre, and that's what we are building"

 

[ecarfan]

Thanks @cronosx I appreciate the info. Bezos makes sense, and Elon has also made the same general point in the past, but specific to Mars colonization. SpaceX is building the “highway” to Mars, and once its open people and economic development will follow (all based on both the need to ensure the long term survival of humanity and the human need for exciting exploration).

And now with the new BFR plan, Elon is broadening his “highway”.

It’s good to have more than one road leading into the future.

 

[Grendal]

Going to the Moon. “We’re going back to the moon and we’re going to stay.” Jeff Bezos
Bezos outlines vision of Blue Origin’s lunar future - SpaceNews.com

 

[RubberToe]

Going to the Moon. “We’re going back to the moon and we’re going to stay.” Jeff Bezos
Bezos outlines vision of Blue Origin’s lunar future - SpaceNews.com

Sounds like he is all in. I like it.

RT

 

[croman]

Sounds like he is all in. I like it.

RT

Someone has to be in order to make this more than a dream. I agree that there is strength in numbers as well as diverse approaches. The history of the American colonies will be an excellent primer on how NOT to succeed at colonizing an inhospitable location and how the subsequent waves of colonists were better distributed and chosen (i.e. sending families and focusing on subsistence rather than cash crops). Also the legal, ethical, and social issues will be similar. I think that any serious spacefaring company should hire historians to help craft policy before the colony is actually attempted. I know my educational background in Early American Law would ensure colonists focus on survival and not other issues.

This will be the hardest thing humanity has ever attempted, we should ensure more than the engineering is thought out before its go time.

 

[RubberToe]

Going to the Moon. “We’re going back to the moon and we’re going to stay.” Jeff Bezos
Bezos outlines vision of Blue Origin’s lunar future - SpaceNews.com

This paragraph really caught my attention:

“Today, we must go back to the moon, and this time to stay,” he said in an on-stage interview with journalist Alan Boyle after accepting the National Space Society’s Gerard K. O’Neill Memorial Award, named after the physicist who proposed the concept of space colonies more than 40 years ago.

Gerard O'Neill was the past generations Elon Musk. His 1976 book "The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space" laid out the vision that Musk and Bezos are only now, 40+ years later, pouring sufficient funds into to make it a reality. Unfortunate that someone or some entity didn't start running with this back then.

In The High Frontier, the moon is essentially the source of material that is used for constructing large solar power satellites in Earth orbit, beaming down the power in microwaves to antenna farms on Earth. Mass drivers on the moon essentially "shoot up" the lunar material to "catchers" in Earth orbit where the material is processed into the solar power satellites. Using lunar resources was the way to bring down the system cost, which was astronomical back then, less so now with first stage reuse. The sale of the power from the solar power satellites is what would have paid for the overall investment required.

The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space - Wikipedia

I'm curious what Bezos plan is WRT generating $$$ from this, or at least making it self funding, other than the fact that he is pouring billions of his own money into it.

I just recently read the book 2312, and there are thousands of space colonies similar to what O'Neill proposed. It is one of the primary themes in the book.

 

[ggies07]

Going to the Moon. “We’re going back to the moon and we’re going to stay.” Jeff Bezos
Bezos outlines vision of Blue Origin’s lunar future - SpaceNews.com

I'm not sure Bezos understands Musk with this statement. If Musk made it the first time, they would go again, and if the mission failed on the second trip, Musk wouldn't just give up, he'd try again. We are going to Mars.

“I don’t like to skip steps, and I always thought that this idea of going to Mars without building a permanent base on the moon would end the same way Apollo did, where we would do it, there would be a ticker-tape parade, and then 50 years of nothing.”

 

[ecarfan]

@Grendal I too am baffled by what Bezos said (what you quoted). Obviously SpaceX is not going to land people on Mars and then turn around and bring them home and never go back.

Maybe Bezos was misquoted.

 

[Grendal]

I'm not sure Bezos understands Musk with this statement. If Musk made it the first time, they would go again, and if the mission failed on the second trip, Musk wouldn't just give up, he'd try again. We are going to Mars.

@Grendal I too am baffled by what Bezos said (what you quoted). Obviously SpaceX is not going to land people on Mars and then turn around and bring them home and never go back.

Maybe Bezos was misquoted.

Bezos is talking about Apollo. It is one of the talking points about going to the Moon fifty years ago that we went there but then dropped it. So he is saying that Blue Origin intends to not just go to the Moon then drop it.

It has nothing to do with SpaceX and Elon.

The article I posted also illustrates the difference between what Blue Origin's goals are compared to SpaceX. Bezos long term goal with BO is to industrialize space. People will come with the industrialization. More than likely, money will come with that industrialization. We all know Musk and SpaceX's goal is colonizing Mars or creating the infrastructure needed to allow for Mars colonization. In some ways the two goals are similar since industrialization will result from lowering costs to get into space and creating the infrastructure for Mars colonization. A lot of the media wants to characterize this as Bezos versus Musk. That is not really true. Both have similar but different goals for space.

 

[ecarfan]

Bezos is talking about Apollo. It is one of the talking points about going to the Moon fifty years ago that we went there but then dropped it. So he is saying that Blue Origin intends to not just go to the Moon then drop it.

I understand that he is saying BO wants to establish human activities on the Moon for the long term. But I don’t interpret his statement (that you quoted upthread) the same way you do. I interpret it as him saying that for humans to establish a long term presence on Mars it is first necessary to do that on the Moon. And I disagree with that approach. As does Elon.

 

[Nikxice]

If BO sticks with their motto 'Gradatim Ferociter' there will be another fifty year gap waiting for them to put together any kind of moon village. Jeff's still working on his first mission goal, heading up the space tourist boomerang club. I like his passion and determination to go lunar, just not convinced he can follow through within a decade or two. Elon time often gets mentioned with an eye-roll, but his record and chutzpah make any Musk prediction much more compelling.

 

[Grendal]

I understand that he is saying BO wants to establish human activities on the Moon for the long term. But I don’t interpret his statement (that you quoted upthread) the same way you do. I interpret it as him saying that for humans to establish a long term presence on Mars it is first necessary to do that on the Moon. And I disagree with that approach. As does Elon.

Jeff Bezos doesn't comment on SpaceX unless asked directly. When that happens he just wishes SpaceX and Elon the best. His answers are always about what Blue Origin is going to do. BO is planning on going to the Moon and industrializing it. I'm sure he is figuring that the government will back that move to some extent. He has maneuvered a bit to get support from Alabama politicians and he is working with ULA. As far as I can tell, he is ignoring SpaceX and what they are doing and moving forward with his/BO's plans.

Long term there may be cooperation between the two companies on certain projects. Maybe a Moon base with government support of both companies. Elon has shown a willingness to work on Moon/government projects.

If BO sticks with their motto 'Gradatim Ferociter' there will be another fifty year gap waiting for them to put together any kind of moon village. Jeff's still working on his first mission goal, heading up the space tourist boomerang club. I like his passion and determination to go lunar, just not convinced he can follow through within a decade or two. Elon time often gets mentioned with an eye-roll, but his record and chutzpah make any Musk prediction much more compelling.

Possibly. Bezos has said that New Glenn will have its first launch in 2020. That doesn't seem too outrageous. The important thing is having the BE-4 working well. That seems to be happening slowly but surely. The factory is built, the ship is bought, and BE-4 has been tested. New Glenn does have a decent launch niche based on its theoretical numbers. It's a heavier lift than F9 but not as good as FH (expendable) and probably equal to FH reusable. Since it hasn't launched, it's hard to say for certain though. My personal opinion is that BO has a long way to go before they prove they can compete with SpaceX on any level. Recovering a booster from New Glenn is very different from recovering and reusing he New Shepard booster.

 

[ecarfan]

Elon has shown a willingness to work on Moon/government projects.

Yes, he has. It was clear to me during his 2017 IAC presentation that he deliberately emphasized that the BFR could be used to establish a Moon base because he through there was a possibility that at some point in the future the US government might come to its senses, cancel the SLS, and return to the Moon in a significant way. The BFR could provide lunar transport relatively economically. Elon was basically saying “If the government wants to pay for a BFR to get America to the Moon then SpaceX will be happy to provide that service”.

However, in my opinion nothing will cause SpaceX to divert its focus on Mars colonization. SpaceX will only build a BFR for lunar transport if the government provides the funding.

In contrast, BO is going to the Moon with Bezo’s money. No government money may be required.

But I am skeptical of the feasibility of “industrializing space” by doing heavy manufacturing on the Moon if the manufactured products would be used on Earth. It seems like the economics wouldn’t work. Similar products made on Earth would be much cheaper. On the other hand, if you want to colonize space by manufacturing components for habitats not based on the lunar surface, and you didn’t really care how expensive they would be, then maybe the Moon is the place to start doing that.

 

[Nikxice]

Reuters has just put up a short story that Blue Origin has set a minimum price of 200K per ticket for their New Shepard suborbital flights. Tickets could price out as high as 300K, which would surpass the 250K asking price for a ride on VG.

What doesn't add up is how Bezos intends to profit from this. Offering just six seats on a rocket estimated to cost 10 million per flight isn't sustainable, unless perhaps your name is Jeff Bezos. I suppose he could run it as a loss leader for PR purposes to help bolster bids on profitable launches?

With Space tourism about to heat up (Bring on SpaceX cislunar), might consider eventually creating a unique thread for this topic.

 

[Cosmacelf]

$10M per flight for a reusable suborbital single engine rocket? Are you sure it’s that much?

 

[Nikxice]

$10M per flight for a reusable suborbital single engine rocket? Are you sure it’s that much?

An article this morning claims 10 million per flight.
Blue Origin's suborbital flights might cost $200,000 per ticket
I think the Reuters story I referenced earlier quoted the same cost from a space financial analyst.

I'm guessing the BO New Shepard/Capsule system will be more labor intensive to turn around versus VG's White Knight Two/SpaceShipTwo aviation concept. For these two companies it'll be an interesting race to the Karman Line. Yikes. Just realized it's bizarre to discover that by the end 2019 the only accessibility to Space for anyone in the US might be on par with the Mercury astronauts of the early 1960's.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yeah, well, I’m going to need more info before I believe the $10M figure from a “space financial analyst”. BO, SpaceX, and VG are so different from traditional rockets companies like ULA, that you can’t use the same metrics.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yes, he has. It was clear to me during his 2017 IAC presentation that he deliberately emphasized that the BFR could be used to establish a Moon base because he through there was a possibility that at some point in the future the US government might come to its senses, cancel the SLS, and return to the Moon in a significant way. The BFR could provide lunar transport relatively economically. Elon was basically saying “If the government wants to pay for a BFR to get America to the Moon then SpaceX will be happy to provide that service”.

However, in my opinion nothing will cause SpaceX to divert its focus on Mars colonization. SpaceX will only build a BFR for lunar transport if the government provides the funding.

No doubt in my mind that nothing will divert SpaceX from its focus on Mars. However, my opinion is that providing BFS services to NASA to enable economical moon exploration and even support for a NASA funded moon base, would not divert SpaceX from its focus on Mars. Once the first few BFR/BFS are operational, many options open for exploring/exercising it's unique capabilities. Ones that SpaceX chooses to participate in at some level will not delay the planned BFS mission(s) to Mars. One of those recently discussed in the Gywnne Shotwell market for private flights thread, was SpaceX generating revenue by taking large groups of space tourists to LEO and perhaps down the road, on lunar loop flights.

I haven't read specifics of what Elon has said regarding SpaceX BFS involvement in future NASA moon activities. I'm not sure why SpaceX would need or want NASA to pay for their own BFR/BFS rather than purchase services from vehicles SpaceX has already built for it's own use. Unlike Commercial Crew, SpaceX is using its internal resources to develop BFR/BFS. No doubt the total cost to SpaceX to develop and then build the first few BFS is going to be quite expensive. How expensive is not clear to us looking in. (That would be a great thread to see what members think it will run.) However I haven't see examples of SpaceX not proceeding full speed ahead now with the development for lack of company resources. Now that F9 block 5 is the workhorse for commercial launch services, SpaceX should be generating enough revenue each year to finish BFR/BFS, use it for early Mars missions and find ways to use those first ships to generate additional revenues.

Once China does moon flybys leading to new moon landings, U.S. government and NASA are going to figure out how they want to renew U.S. lunar exploration and how much budget those plans will require. When a budget for a plan using BFS is compared with the same plan using SLS, that should be the final nail in SLS coffin and the whole thing will be cancelled.