Full Blue Moon Event for those that want to view the whole thing. Edit: Watched it. Recommended. He's on a very similar page as Elon. Between the two of them, I hope to see what we want actually happen. The key factor for Bezos (and BO) is what he will do when an inevitable failure occurs. I don't expect for New Glenn to land on its first try. Maybe it will lose an engine or something that causes a catastrophic failure. I hope he maintains his vision in the face of adversity.
My thoughts/ issues with the plan: How did it solve the 3%/ year energy issue? Is there still enough solar panels to cover the suface of the Earth, but now they are distributed among the cylinders? O'Neil in general: Spinning objects don't have gravity, that bird is going to have serious flight issues. Not to mention in flight byproducts and anything not in contact with the shell will hover indefinitely. Also major issues with air stagnation (big circulation fans flowing from center to circumference would help all these issues) . Is Mars to Earth communication time really an issue? I email/ text way more than I call people. Scaling: one trillion people, each cylinder holds one million, so one million cylinders? Heavy industry not on Earth: If industry has been made clean enough to be sustainable in a closed environment, isn't it clean enough to be done on Earth? (Note: if you assume no need for heavy industry products on Earth, then it makes sense) Where does soil for plants come from? Are we talking hydroponics, or amended crushed asteroid? If you live in a cylinder, does it matter which planet you orbit? For that matter, do you need to orbit a planet? Also not sure what was up with the 1975 interview when Asimov said no one had thought of cylinder colonies. He himself published "Rendezvous with Rama" in 1973. O'Neil published his paper on the concept in a September 1974 article of Physics Today. The concept art showed people living in the end ring section as opposed to the cylinder. This would result in the sun being on a constantly low angle (90 degrees) relative to 'down'. The normal concept is habitation in the cylinder with sunlight bounced in through the 3 mirrors to the three non-glass sections so as to appear to be coming from above.
Excellent points. As Bezos mentioned, it's up to future generations to make the science and engineering work. All off planet habitation and life will be a massive multi-generational endeavor. Personally, I like O-Neil colonies too. If they work, then they can be constantly expanded. Planets are all different with their own individual challenges. Karen Rei made a good argument for Venus in the "Off Planet Colonization" thread. There is no easy answer but off planet colonization is something that must happen if we are to continue to expand.
That makes more sense, no idea how I misread the wiki article I linked to. Must have been due to Googling Rama and Asimov then only looking for the date.
I’ve now watched Bezos’s presentation twice. His vision is vast, but familiar to those who have read the many works of fiction that incorporated O-Neil cylinders or something similar (my favorite Ringworld series - Wikipedia ). However, the technology required to construct and maintain even a modestly-sized O’Neil cylinder is so far beyond what we are currently capable of that it makes creating a self-sustaining colony on Mars look like child’s play. The size of such a habitat dwarfs any structure humans have ever constructed. Add to that the fact that it has to be built in space using primarily non-terrestrial resources, and the challenge is immense. But that still isn’t the hardest part. Creating a functioning, balanced, closed ecosystem on that scale is likely even more difficult. It’s hard enough to do that on the scale of about 1 hectare (see Biosphere 2 - Wikipedia ) and on Earth. Bezos wants to do it in space where environmental controls will be much more difficult to maintain. While I admire Bezos’s vision and enthusiasm, I continue to believe that what SpaceX is doing is both logical and necessary and is far more likely to come to fruition even on a timescale of millennia. I confess to being annoyed by Bezos completely ignoring what SpaceX has accomplished to date. It seems to be personal with him. Obviously SpaceX has paved the way with reusable orbital-class rockets and been doing it for years now. Blue Glenn, which has yet to fly, is not completely reusable, the second stage is discarded. Starship will be 100% reusable. BO is lagging in that area.
The size of Jeff's fairing only impresses women who care or those who've actually performed in orbit.
Agreed. If I had to choose which company in the world emerges as 2nd best to SpaceX, Blue Origin would be it.
Bezos is happy with the BE-7: This Blue Origin engine will take a woman to the moon for the first time - CNN
"NASA is planning on sending a woman to the moon in 2024, and when she makes the trip, she'll be in a BE-7 engine from Jeff Bezos' rocket venture, Blue Origin." [emphasis mine] Seems like a strange place for a passenger.
Interesting speculation...Jeff is stepping down from Amazon later this year (Jassy will take over). This could result in Jeff spending more time on Blue. Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO, Andy Jassy to take over in Q3