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Blue Origin: Future Plans

Discussion in 'SpaceX' started by Grendal, Sep 13, 2017.

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  1. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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    Full Blue Moon Event for those that want to view the whole thing.


    Edit: Watched it. Recommended. He's on a very similar page as Elon. Between the two of them, I hope to see what we want actually happen. The key factor for Bezos (and BO) is what he will do when an inevitable failure occurs. I don't expect for New Glenn to land on its first try. Maybe it will lose an engine or something that causes a catastrophic failure. I hope he maintains his vision in the face of adversity.
     
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  2. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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    Scott Manley comments on the presentation:
     
  3. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts/ issues with the plan:
    1. How did it solve the 3%/ year energy issue? Is there still enough solar panels to cover the suface of the Earth, but now they are distributed among the cylinders?
    2. O'Neil in general: Spinning objects don't have gravity, that bird is going to have serious flight issues. Not to mention in flight byproducts and anything not in contact with the shell will hover indefinitely. Also major issues with air stagnation (big circulation fans flowing from center to circumference would help all these issues) .
    3. Is Mars to Earth communication time really an issue? I email/ text way more than I call people.
    4. Scaling: one trillion people, each cylinder holds one million, so one million cylinders?
    5. Heavy industry not on Earth: If industry has been made clean enough to be sustainable in a closed environment, isn't it clean enough to be done on Earth? (Note: if you assume no need for heavy industry products on Earth, then it makes sense)
    6. Where does soil for plants come from? Are we talking hydroponics, or amended crushed asteroid?
    7. If you live in a cylinder, does it matter which planet you orbit? For that matter, do you need to orbit a planet?
    8. Also not sure what was up with the 1975 interview when Asimov said no one had thought of cylinder colonies. He himself published "Rendezvous with Rama" in 1973. O'Neil published his paper on the concept in a September 1974 article of Physics Today.
    9. The concept art showed people living in the end ring section as opposed to the cylinder. This would result in the sun being on a constantly low angle (90 degrees) relative to 'down'. The normal concept is habitation in the cylinder with sunlight bounced in through the 3 mirrors to the three non-glass sections so as to appear to be coming from above.
     
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  4. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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    Excellent points. As Bezos mentioned, it's up to future generations to make the science and engineering work. All off planet habitation and life will be a massive multi-generational endeavor. Personally, I like O-Neil colonies too. If they work, then they can be constantly expanded. Planets are all different with their own individual challenges. Karen Rei made a good argument for Venus in the "Off Planet Colonization" thread. There is no easy answer but off planet colonization is something that must happen if we are to continue to expand.
     
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  5. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

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    Asimov didn’t publish Rendezvous with Rama, that was Clarke.
     
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  6. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    That makes more sense, no idea how I misread the wiki article I linked to. Must have been due to Googling Rama and Asimov then only looking for the date.
     
  7. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I’ve now watched Bezos’s presentation twice. His vision is vast, but familiar to those who have read the many works of fiction that incorporated O-Neil cylinders or something similar (my favorite Ringworld series - Wikipedia ).

    However, the technology required to construct and maintain even a modestly-sized O’Neil cylinder is so far beyond what we are currently capable of that it makes creating a self-sustaining colony on Mars look like child’s play. The size of such a habitat dwarfs any structure humans have ever constructed. Add to that the fact that it has to be built in space using primarily non-terrestrial resources, and the challenge is immense.

    But that still isn’t the hardest part. Creating a functioning, balanced, closed ecosystem on that scale is likely even more difficult. It’s hard enough to do that on the scale of about 1 hectare (see Biosphere 2 - Wikipedia ) and on Earth. Bezos wants to do it in space where environmental controls will be much more difficult to maintain.

    While I admire Bezos’s vision and enthusiasm, I continue to believe that what SpaceX is doing is both logical and necessary and is far more likely to come to fruition even on a timescale of millennia.

    I confess to being annoyed by Bezos completely ignoring what SpaceX has accomplished to date. It seems to be personal with him. Obviously SpaceX has paved the way with reusable orbital-class rockets and been doing it for years now. Blue Glenn, which has yet to fly, is not completely reusable, the second stage is discarded. Starship will be 100% reusable. BO is lagging in that area.
     
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  8. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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    • Informative x 1
  9. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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    That's a big effing fairing!
     
  10. Nikxice

    Nikxice Active Member

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    The size of Jeff's fairing only impresses women who care or those who've actually performed in orbit.
     
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  11. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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  12. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Seriously dude.

    There is a person in this image (of course the perspective makes him look smaller).

    B8132F24-BFF5-4D96-A20F-6FAB7F0F9AB1.jpeg
     
  13. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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    Mostly just good to see that they’re actually posting evidence of tangible progress on hardware...
     
  14. Mo City

    Mo City Active Member

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    Agreed. If I had to choose which company in the world emerges as 2nd best to SpaceX, Blue Origin would be it.
     
  15. HVM

    HVM Savolainen

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    SS tank fab vs. NG
     
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  16. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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  17. scaesare

    scaesare Well-Known Member

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    • Funny x 5
  18. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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  19. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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  20. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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