EVNow
Well-Known Member
How many cells can they fit in that space ? That should tell us what the max battery capacity is (or given the capacity, the size of the vehicle).
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WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
Glad you asked :smile:.
The Model S' track x wheelbase is 65.4" x 116.5" = 7,619 square inches
My BlueStar guess for track x wheelbase is 60" x 104" = 6,240 square inches
So, in theory, the BlueStar's battery could be roughly 80% of the Model S.
So instead of 85 kWh, you could go as big as 65 kWh using the same 3100 mAh cells.
A more precise analysis would yield a more precise estimate but I think this is a good guess.
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
My Guess For What BlueStar Might Look Like
I think Franz von Holzhausen used to work for Mazda during the time this concept was released - perhaps he contributed to it.
I'm thinking this could be the general aesthetic because it has very short overhangs front and rear relative to the wheelbase. It is aerodynamic and has a large passenger compartment. It has a "sportback" kind of rear end that would not induce drag.
http://www.netcarshow.com/mazda/2007-ryuga_concept/
I think Franz von Holzhausen used to work for Mazda during the time this concept was released - perhaps he contributed to it.
I'm thinking this could be the general aesthetic because it has very short overhangs front and rear relative to the wheelbase. It is aerodynamic and has a large passenger compartment. It has a "sportback" kind of rear end that would not induce drag.
http://www.netcarshow.com/mazda/2007-ryuga_concept/
Adm
Active Member
Prediction: Blue Star is about 3 years away. By the time it is presented, expectations here will be so high that there is no way in hell Tesla can deliver on those expectations. Several forum members will disappointed and cancel their reservation. [dejavu]
Or Tesla can deliver and I will be in shock :scared:
Or Tesla can deliver and I will be in shock :scared:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think it is likely that BlueStar will come in 3 range flavors 100-150-200 or 100-175-250. Also my guess is Tesla is banking on a certain price reduction by the time BlueStar comes out in 2015(?).
A near-luxury C segment car can be sold for about $30k (like A3). At $250/kWh, a 30kWh battery will add about $8k - which is close to the $7.5K tax credit. So, Bluestar can potentially be sold for $30k - if the battery costs $250/kWh and the base car has only 30kWh with 100 mile range.
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WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
The 40 kWh pack has about 2/3 of the cells of the 60 kWh pack. BlueStar has (by my guess) about 80% of the space of Model S. So 40 kWh could easily fit into BlueStar's battery pack with no upgrade to the battery chemistry.
Adm
Active Member
That said, Blue Star will come to market 2015/16 and it's likely that the 40kWh battery chemistry won't be available anymore, so I think it is safe to assume that a 40 kWh battery for Blue Star will be smaller and lighter.
but this means also, using the cells of the 85kw Model S in the BlueStar will get it with no problem over 200miles
So if they built it now 200Miles range would be possible!
So I think, shorten the platform of the model S, use same drivetrain, smaller batterypack, and "just" other bodypannels and we have a bluestar
Or a rocket on wheels! :biggrin:
No word on the Model S (or the X) having a pedestrian alert like the EV1 where pulling the turn signal stock towards the driver not only flashes the brights but also gives a smallish quiet horn to let parking lot people know you are behind them.
Please put the standaized feature in all EVs. Especially my Bluestar Model T.
Please put the standaized feature in all EVs. Especially my Bluestar Model T.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Generally $250/kWh is considered an inflexion point - when EVs start getting competitive with ICE. While Tesla's bare cell costs are lower than auto grade batteries others use, I'm not sure they are close to $200.
Remember, Tesla needs to decide on the basic design parameters for Bluestar now - to be able to deliver it in 2015. So, they will have to start making some assumptions about the battery price by 2015. If they use a low ball (aggressive) estimate, they may have trouble meeting the $30k price point.
As I wrote, I think they will think of base Bluestar as about 100 miles of range - if they want to price it around $30k (after tax credit).
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
Moving from 40 kWh to 60 kWh on the Model S, customers have to pay an additional $10,000 for 20 kWh or $500 per kWh at retail. Jumping from 60 kWh to 85 kWh, customers again pay an additional $10,000 for 25 kWh or $400 per kWh HOWEVER the range jumps up by the same 70 miles (160 to 230 to 300) so it's not clear if that extra 5 kWh is illusory. Mystery of the Missing 5 kWh
Tesla has stated that their gross margins are 25% so Tesla's cost should be about $450 x (1-.25) = $337.50 plus or minus $37.50. Elon reiterated in an article today he sees battery costs declining 7-9% per year so in 3 years that's a 20-25% reduction. So battery costs in 2015 would be $225 - $300 per kWh, $300 - $400 per kWh to the retail consumer.
I think that Panasonic should be long term greedy here. If Tesla can be successful and sell a lot of cars then two things will happen that benefit Panasonic greatly (1) Tesla will stay in business, continue to sell more and more cars and continue to buy millions of Panasonic batteries and (2) other car makers will switch to the Panasonic / Tesla technology and buy millions of batteries. This could be a tremendous growth area for Panasonic IF they bring the prices down that they charge Tesla as fast as possible, thereby reducing the EV premium and making the Model S, X and BlueStar more successful.
For the above reason I expect that in 2015 Panasonic will offer the 4.0 Ah batteries at prices only slightly higher than today's 3.1 Ah. Therefore I expect the 3.1 Ah batteries to be 20-25% cheaper than they are today. That will allow Tesla to lower prices on the Model S substantially ($4,000, $6,000 and $8,500 off each model respectively) or increase range by 33% (215, 300, 400 miles respectively) or add a lot more luxury features or most likely some combination of all 3.
It will also enable a Bluestar model for $30,000 - $35,000 with a range of 100-150 miles with the smallest battery pack.
I am hopeful that Panasonic makes it possible since battery cost will be the critical driver of EV adoption.
Tesla has stated that their gross margins are 25% so Tesla's cost should be about $450 x (1-.25) = $337.50 plus or minus $37.50. Elon reiterated in an article today he sees battery costs declining 7-9% per year so in 3 years that's a 20-25% reduction. So battery costs in 2015 would be $225 - $300 per kWh, $300 - $400 per kWh to the retail consumer.
I think that Panasonic should be long term greedy here. If Tesla can be successful and sell a lot of cars then two things will happen that benefit Panasonic greatly (1) Tesla will stay in business, continue to sell more and more cars and continue to buy millions of Panasonic batteries and (2) other car makers will switch to the Panasonic / Tesla technology and buy millions of batteries. This could be a tremendous growth area for Panasonic IF they bring the prices down that they charge Tesla as fast as possible, thereby reducing the EV premium and making the Model S, X and BlueStar more successful.
For the above reason I expect that in 2015 Panasonic will offer the 4.0 Ah batteries at prices only slightly higher than today's 3.1 Ah. Therefore I expect the 3.1 Ah batteries to be 20-25% cheaper than they are today. That will allow Tesla to lower prices on the Model S substantially ($4,000, $6,000 and $8,500 off each model respectively) or increase range by 33% (215, 300, 400 miles respectively) or add a lot more luxury features or most likely some combination of all 3.
It will also enable a Bluestar model for $30,000 - $35,000 with a range of 100-150 miles with the smallest battery pack.
I am hopeful that Panasonic makes it possible since battery cost will be the critical driver of EV adoption.
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I really think the starting range for the Bluestar has to be 120+ miles. Tesla needs to stand out from its competitors. The major manufacturers have targeted 100 miles (which is actually below that number) as their starting point. There also has to be a distinction between the Bluestar and the Model S in both vehicle size and range increments. The Model S is 160, 230, and 300 so the Bluestar should be able to hit 120, 160, and 210. With price jumps similar to the Model S of 30K, 37K, and 45K. So, if you spend 45K you get a little more range than the base level Model S but you're not driving as nice a car.
I partially disagree. I think that Tesla has hit the mileage numbers on the right targets with the Model S and I think that will hold true across all models regardless of the size of the car and the features. I would actually like to see them make it 150, 300 and 450 across all lines but I think what they have is adequate for most drivers in most cercumstances so it is ok. And I do not think that your proposed 20 mile increase over the competition is enough to warrant a distinction.
I'm sure that Tesla will need to make the range decision based on advances in battery chemistry and decreases in battery prices between now and then. I'm inclined to agree with Kevin H, however: Tesla will need to keep a premium range befitting of its premium market image, and 20 miles isn't enough of a premium.
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
Range will be driven by cost which will be driven by technology. TSLA can build a car with 600 miles range right now. But it will cost more than a Roadster and few people will buy it.
I don't think the technology will have improved beyond the 4.0 Ah Panasonic cells in 3 years. Therefore the costs will not have dropped more than 30%, therefore to hit the $30,000 price target the base model BlueStar will have to drop down to a 30 kWh battery (or less) and range will fall from 160 to 120.
In my opinion the most likely scenario is that the battery is more like 24-27 kWh but because the BlueStar will be smaller and lighter it will still get 120 miles of range - maybe slightly more.
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