Oh you can definitely trust my analytical ability with finances.
The 35K SR will be gone, making the low end $39,500 starting for SR+. You are 45K all in. Only significant difference is you get basic AP.
$3,750, and $1,875 tax credits are expected to be gone in two years.
So yes, $25,000 seems very realistic to me. Unlimited miles really means you can drive as much as you want - or as little as you want. If you drove it 1000 miles in two years, you will get more than $25,000. If you drove 40,000 miles, you wont get $25,000 but you'll get $20,000 possibly.
eh, there's BIG assumptions built into that. Hard to know how the political winds will blow regarding tax credits. Looks grim now, but could completely change direction in 2 years. And maybe the buyer has read these thread of people buying in California, who do some math on federal, state, and local credits and come up with like $12K off. (Some days I wish I lived in California, but then I remember how much the house costs, and then the car doesn't feel so economical any more...)
Also hard to know about the SR. They just had to introduce a LOWER trim level in Canada. Why would they bother to completely eliminate the SR option for the US when they're being forced to continue producing it for Canada anyway? That would only take away their ability to claim they could make a $35K car, and for no good reason.
I think if a buyer comes in knowing you might have gotten a 35K car for 10K+ off, they're not going to pony up 25K after 2 years. But maybe not all buyers know that. Maybe you're selling in a state with crappy state/local incentives. So maybe 25K, I just don't think it's a given. I'd feel better if the math was based on 20K and came with the asterisk "but you may do better."
Still, it should be better than the Tesla lease any way you slice it. Just not cheaper than the i3 lease.