BMW Shifting Focus of I Brand

[mhpr262]

Not a good decision by BMW, IMHO. If they had built a sleek, stylish carbon fiber runabout along the lines of the Z4, two seats, 4WD, powered by dual i3 motors and at least a 50kwh battery I am sure they would have found customers. They could have kept a horse in tha race that way. And it wouldn't have looked so much like tucking their tail between their legs and running away from the competition.

At least I think it is safe to say that nobody is laughing at Tesla anymore.

 

[zenmaster]

They could have kept a horse in tha race that way. And it wouldn't have looked so much like tucking their tail between their legs and running away from the competition.

Their strategy is actually kind of bizarre when you consider the known EV tech trends (battery) allowing for steadily reduced production costs. If the Model 3 is, as Musk claims, "the best car you can buy" and it targets the 3-series, why does BMW ignore for so long? The only thing I can think of is if Tesla's (or any EV manuf.'s) potential in the market is something harmless, like less than 5-10% of BMW's. But I'm not sure how that could be when Jefferies had Tesla at 19m potential customers worldwide a year ago - before that Model 3 interest was shown. BMW's current car market is something like 80m worldwide I believe?

 

[tvuolo]

BWW had a real electic BMW. The BMW ActivE. With a 32kw battery and 150km EPA range. I thought for the production model they'd step their game up and go more efficent and bigger battery (i.e 45kw) for 250km electric range or so.
Obviously it mutated into the i3 later which has the desireability of a bicycle with flat tires...

If BMW had actually sold these where I live, I would have bought one instead of a Leaf! I don't understand why BMW doesn't pick up where they left off with these.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Speaking of bicycle tires, I didn't realize until today that i8 has them too. Followed one in my neighborhood as I was going home. Strange looking stance from behind, almost like a slot car. Still pretty otherwise...

 

[zenmaster]

BMW to develop driverless car technology with Intel, Mobileye | Reuters

 

[zag2me]

I really don't see how their strategy of not building new electric cars and driverless technology fits. Surely you need electric cars with computing power to make the drivelers solution work?

 

[zenmaster]

Surely you need electric cars with computing power to make the drivelers solution work?

Computing power sure, electric car why?

 

[ecarfan]

Surely you need electric cars with computing power to make the drivelers solution work?

You do not need EVs to do autonomous driving, Google had been doing autonomous driving for years with modified Prius and Lexus ICE cars.

But I think autonomous driving will be easier to implement in an EV because the car is more responsive to computer commands and easier to control via computer than an ICE.

 

[zenmaster]

But I think autonomous driving will be easier to implement in an EV because the car is more responsive to computer commands and easier to control via computer than an ICE.

Why do you think that?

 

[YBT]

Electric motors respond much quicker to throttle input (one of the neat advantages relative to ICE)

 

[wdolson]

I really don't see how their strategy of not building new electric cars and driverless technology fits. Surely you need electric cars with computing power to make the drivelers solution work?

Julian Cox here
Why Tesla Model 3 Will Upend The Global Auto Industry (Cleantech Revolution Tour Video)

addresses the question of ICEs with autonomous driving. He points out that it is technically possible, but the biggest advantages with autonomous driving comes only with electric cars.

Where autonomous cars becomes an economic issue is with autonomous taxis. If you can put a self driving taxi on the road that is also electric, it will cost you about 6 cents per mile to fuel. If you charge 12 cents a mile, you're making 6 cents a mile profit with no workforce except a few maintenance people. With a fleet of BEV taxis out there that are self driving, suddenly that starts sending ripples throughout the transportation industry.

That starts making buses economically unfeasible, it also puts Uber out of business unless Uber is the one putting these cars on the road, in which case it puts all their drivers out of work. With transportation that cheap, a lot of people don't bother buying cars and the market starts to shift towards on call transportation rather than a car you own. Many people will still want to own their own car, but it will become a luxury item.

Among the small number of shrinking ICE owners some would appreciate autonomous driving, but he also makes the point that people will be choosing to lease ICE rather than buy as they wait in line for a BEV. The ICE companies will look on the surface like business as usual, but when those leases are up, they will find they can't sell the used cars because demand will have shifted to BEVs. It will be a bubble like the housing market that will implode and take down most of the ICE makers. An ICE with autonomous driving may become a curiosity of a bygone era when the technology was changing fast and the ICE makers put their money on the wrong key tech.

Autonomous driving will be a wave of the future, but the bigger wave is the BEV. Cars that have both will find a place in the new market, ICEs won't.

 

[WannabeOwner]

put a self driving taxi on the road that is also electric, it will cost you about 6 cents per mile to fuel

Something that has been vexing me is that my electric fuel is so cheap because I am not paying any fuel-tax when I fill it up, compared to filling up an ICE car. Government will lose all that tax revenue, so will need to raise it differently. $-per-mile perhaps? That then becomes the same (assuming they get rid of tax on ICE-fuel as well!!) whether an ICE vehicle or a BEV one.

Personally I would welcome $-per-mile (well ... cents per mile!) tax, particularly if it was related to time-of-day, because it would move some short-journey traffic off the highways and could move some freight traffic to nighttime etc. and aim for more efficient occupation of the existing road infrastructure.

Pipe-dream though, probably ...

 

[wdolson]

Something that has been vexing me is that my electric fuel is so cheap because I am not paying any fuel-tax when I fill it up, compared to filling up an ICE car. Government will lose all that tax revenue, so will need to raise it differently. $-per-mile perhaps? That then becomes the same (assuming they get rid of tax on ICE-fuel as well!!) whether an ICE vehicle or a BEV one.

Personally I would welcome $-per-mile (well ... cents per mile!) tax, particularly if it was related to time-of-day, because it would move some short-journey traffic off the highways and could move some freight traffic to nighttime etc. and aim for more efficient occupation of the existing road infrastructure.

Pipe-dream though, probably ...

Many US states are coming up with solutions for the tax thing. Some have proposed bills that would require EV drivers to report their miles to the government every year, though I'm not sure any of those passed.

Here in Washington State they've had a $100/year surcharge on EV registrations that went up to July 1 to $150. With my ICE I was paying about $20 a year in road taxes, but since I work at home I haven't been putting a lot of miles on that car in recent years. In the last month I put more miles on my new Tesla than I put on my old car in 4 months.

The $150 a year surcharge is equal to the road tax on 28 gallons of gasoline a month. More than I was buying, but probably less than a lot of people who drive to work every day.

The people who are really getting away with it are those who have hybrids, though plug in hybrids capable of more than 30 miles on battery. They are exempt from any registration surcharges. So people who drive 50 mpg Priuses get away paying less taxes than anyone.

 

[WannabeOwner]

in Washington State they've had a $100/year surcharge on EV registrations

We still have incentive for EVs. There were plans to scrap the [old, flat-fee] road tax because it was costing more to administer than it was raising!, and is disproportionate to road-use for many motorists. Then it changed to being a sliding scale depending on how polluting your vehicle is - it ranges from £ 0 (BEVs and ultra low polluters - less than 100 g/km CO2) to about £ 500 p.a. (more than 255 g/km CO2), and vehicles above the half-way cutoff pay 1.5x that in the first year with the vehicles at the top end paying 2x that in the first year.

61 per cent of the petrol / diesel pump price goes to the government as fuel duty and VAT (Sales Tax). Electric vehicle bypasses all of that tax (by my Man maths calculation if I recharge on cheaper overnight electricity, charge at work / SuperCharger 50% of the time then I will save GBP 100 per month for every 10,000 I drive annually), but the time will come where the government needs to recoup that.

Having an annual tax on BEVs is nuts, if they are serious about addressing climate change; I think pay-per-use would be better - maybe difficult to get a "meter reading" though ... we have very few toll highways in the UK, they are more common on the continent, and of course as a consequence we built our highways without the massive space for toll booths, but there has been on-off talk for a long time about installing cameras and charging "per mile" of highway usage. Maybe that would a) raise taxes proportionate to road usage and b) move some traffic off the congested highways (or to cheaper-times-of-day/night)

 

[wdolson]

Eventually EVs will be taxed everywhere. In the end the government always wants their cut.

Washington's tax structure was once very favorable to EVs. They had a sales tax holiday on all EVs for some time, but some legislators didn't think it was good to be giving a tax break to the rich, so it got limited to cars costing less than $35K, and just recently got modified to cars less than something like $42K, but only the first $31K is tax free or something like that (I'm too lazy to look it up at the moment, but it's in that ballpark).

Most of the rest of the world was more aggressive about taxing gasoline back in the 50s and 60s and those high taxes are still in place. In the US both the feds and the states have a tax on gasoline, but the federal tax on gasoline hasn't changed in many years, it's still 18.4 cents a gallon. Washington state has the second highest state gas tax in the US at 44.5 cents per gallon. Our tax is 62.9 cents a gallon. The price changes quite a bit, but at $2 a gallon, we're paying 31.45% in taxes. As the price goes up, the percentage in taxes goes down as the rates are flat and not a percentage.

The US is home to the oil industry and for most of the 20th century was home of the biggest car makers too.

 

[JeffK]

Speaking of "back burner":
BMW i3 Police Car Catches Fire in Rome, Bad News for the LAPD

 

[wdolson]

Everyone was hair on fire when there were a couple of Tesla fires, but this will probably go as just a media footnote because it's a BMW and not a Tesla.

 

[BluestarE3]

Everyone was hair on fire when there were a couple of Tesla fires, but this will probably go as just a media footnote because it's a BMW and not a Tesla.

And even if it turns out the fire was caused by the range extender ICE, the mainstream media will characterize this as yet another electric car infernal.

 

[RoaldH]

BWW had a real electic BMW. The BMW ActivE. With a 32kw battery and 150km EPA range. I thought for the production model they'd step their game up and go more efficent and bigger battery (i.e 45kw) for 250km electric range or so.
Obviously it mutated into the i3 later which has the desireability of a bicycle with flat tires...

I've driven this car in the beginning of 2013 and was impressed.

 

[WarpedOne]

If BMW had been selling those, I would already bought one.
In my universe though, BMW is selling i3 and I'm waiting for model 3.