Bob Lutz blames fascination with Musk for dismissal of Ford's CEO

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I wonder if they feel they'll same way when they're 22? I personally haven't seen that; the kids I know get their licenses as quickly as they can after turning 16, just like we did.

Lots of people get a license and a car when they feel an increased need for mobility.

Autonomy would provide much greater convenience than mass transit at a slight premium. If mass transit responds, it'd just make mass transit better as well. Where there is no mass transit (as with where I live) autonomous ride-share taxis would provide a replacement system.
Autonomy would result in a system with comparable convenience to ownership but at a much lower cost _and_ you wouldn't have to drive the vehicle.

And as McRat mentioned, the working poor would flee ownership. No loan if hours are cut or you lose your job, no worry about breakdowns, no driving uninsured, shared registration fees and an easy ride-share system to lower the cost even more.

 

[Snerruc]

So, how much do you think this will cut car sales? 50%? 75%? And they will look like Google cars.

 

[sandpiper]

Lots of people get a license and a car when they feel an increased need for mobility.

Autonomy would provide much greater convenience than mass transit at a slight premium. If mass transit responds, it'd just make mass transit better as well. Where there is no mass transit (as with where I live) autonomous ride-share taxis would provide a replacement system.
Autonomy would result in a system with comparable convenience to ownership but at a much lower cost _and_ you wouldn't have to drive the vehicle.

And as McRat mentioned, the working poor would flee ownership. No loan if hours are cut or you lose your job, no worry about breakdowns, no driving uninsured, shared registration fees and an easy ride-share system to lower the cost even more.

Autonomy doesn't really provide anything new. It provides exactly the same service as Uber or a taxi. It might be a bit cheaper if there's no driver. But driver wages are a fairly small part of a taxi fare. I just don't see where the revolution is.

The fact that the car might be electric is really irrelevant; you can have an electric taxi too and any savings will would eventually show up in reduced fares.

 

[jbcarioca]

?.. his seventeen-year old told us that "none" of his classmates are getting drivers' licenses. "No one's driving any more".

Even from just the perspective of North America - a dangerous one, indeed - McRat's observations appear more and more on the money.

While on a place far South, in Rio de Janeiro, two of my nephews no longer have cars- they prefer Uber and the Metro. Several of our friends and relatives are going careless also. Ten years ago every person we knew had a car or were planning to have one. Poor or rich, no difference.

To the Northeast, in Helsinki, a fairly well-off couple who are long-time friends just sold their three cars and plan to have none.

All these are anecdotes but the driving license issuing statistics keep indicating a small and growing percentage of people who are not even getting licenses. It's easy to overstate this trend, but...

Globally there are more and more hourly car rental operations, from obvious places like San Francisco (there are Model X on GetAround) to Fortaleza, CE, Brazil with Vamo (my choice there is a BYD E6). From France, Germany, Tokyo and almost worldwide people in urban areas who want cars rent by the hour more and more frequently.

The trends are unmistakable. These are invisible to 20th century guiding lights such as Bob Lutz. He's obsolete, sure, but GM would probably not have done the Volt without him. I feel sad that he's lost his vision; thirty years ago our shared infatuation with hot cars and fast airplanes made me admire him greatly. I recall a time when I flew my Lear 25D into PTK (Pontiac, MI) only to see him on the ramp in his L39. Neither of those two aircraft are viable today, even fewer with owner pilots.

Most of that generation have either died or changed with the times. Bob Lutz seems to be stuck firmly in the 1990's. He'll never understand Elon, nor the enthusiasts whose fervor is not for BEV's. Here we have impassioned arguments about relative merits of BEV's complete with personal assaults. Then it was about kerosene and gasoline. It is very sad to see a legend fail while still alive.