Maybe. But BFR isn’t just a bigger Falcon rocket with more engines; it includes the largest crew compartment space ever contstructed in any spacecraft, and to make that project even more difficult, it is the first ever crewed ship designed to go to Mars and return. Neither SpaceX nor any other organization on Earth has ever attempted to build a vehicle like that. SpaceX does not have essentially unlimited resources like Blue Origin does. It’s going to be incredibly difficult, and there are going to be numerous unforeseen problems and delays.
So while I believe it likely that SpaceX will get a BFR with a few people on it to LEO and return it safely to Earth by 2022, I do not believe it likely at all that by 2028 BFRs will be launching “far more than a dozen times a year”. If there are two BFR launches a year by then I will consider that a real success! Of course I could be wrong about what will happen in the future.
No disagreement that developing BFR/BFS will be challenging in some ways beyond the ones overcome in building F9 and FH.
Always refreshing on TMC for posters to admit the possibility of being wrong! I may well be wrong to think it will be operating frequently sooner than ten years out. However...
The rocket design and manufacturing conventional wisdom was that landing and reusing boosters wasn't possible and not worth trying. Over 4 years or so, SpaceX figured it out and since the first success there have only been one or a few misses. They surmounted the challenges with less resources than available now and much less than they will have to complete BFR.
Designing a much larger crew compartment space will in some ways be more challenging than Dragon 2 and in some less. But, cramming as many subsystems into a small capsule is complex and hard. And expensive. Removing the space constraints relieves some of that. Dragon 2 must handle many of the same tasks as BFS. Navigation, docking, life support, reentry heat shielding, etc. Yet it was developed by just a portion of SpaceX staff over 4 - 5 years. Not suggesting BFS won't have to do all those things longer, bigger, better, etc., Just saying it's solutions will be built on the company's very substantial skill and knowledge base.
If all the parts are built, tested and integrated over the next five years, I don't think Elon and Gwynn will be slow to find launch jobs for it.
Early Mars missions, launching more StarLink satellites and space tourism are all likely to be in that mix. Hopefully my optimism is not too misplaced!
