Breakdown of types of reservations

[Sans Gas]

Is there enough information to breakdown the reservations into groups such as:

Employees of Tesla
Present owners of one or more Teslas
Location, i.e West coast or East coast, and possibly states with highest ownership

As I understand these and possibly other categories will determine order of deliveries.

For my planning purpose, I (Florida, own two S's) would like to know probability of delivery in 2017.

 

[dsvick]

Short answer: No one can say when anyone will get their car, there are too many variables.

Long answer: The only thing I recall hearing, and it was a couple of months ago, was that 7% of reservations were from prior owners, so that would be about 28,000 reservations out of 400,000 (I rounded because I'm lazy). Between them, Tesla and Space-X have about 20,000 employees, being generous maybe 75% placed a reservation, so that's 15,000.

All of that gives about 45,000 reservations with some sort of priority. What that exactly means no one knows since there are other factors involved and how they are applied has not been explained. So prior owner in FL .... maybe you'll get it in 2017, in additon to everything else when you reserved will have a large effect as well as options you choose.

 

[Troy]

Hi,

It could be possible to calculate a rough delivery time but I'm not clear about the term "region" in the following sentence:

In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region.
Source: Reserving your Model 3

There is also this section from the same blog post:

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets. It is not possible to ship to all regions simultaneously because regulators in each part of the world have slightly different production requirements. Staggering deliveries in this way also allows us to provide the best possible customer experience.

Let's say we are comparing these four Model 3 buyers:

A. California, Tesla owner
B. California, not a Tesla owner
C. Florida, Tesla owner
D. Florida, not a Tesla owner

If the entire USA is one region, that would mean they will deliver in this order: A, C, B, D.
If West Coast is one region and the rest of the USA is another region, then it would be A, B, C, D.

Any opinions on what region means in that sentence?

 

[dsvick]

Hi,

It could be possible to calculate a rough delivery time ...

Let's say we are comparing these four Model 3 buyers:

A. California, Tesla owner
B. California, not a Tesla owner
C. Florida, Tesla owner
D. Florida, not a Tesla owner

If the entire USA is one region, that would mean they will deliver in this order: A, C, B, D.
If West Coast is one region and the rest of the USA is another region, then it would be A, B, C, D.

Any opinions on what region means in that sentence?

You can't even say that those are the delivery orders. You didn't account for reservation date, which they've said will determine when you configure, and you don't know how they'll move from one region to the next or when.

As for what a region is, no one knows. It could be time zone, it could be population based, or based on the number of reservations in an area, it couldbe any number of things. There are way too many variables and not enough definition on how they'll be applied to make a decent estimate. About the only thing that you could resonably say for sure is that employees living closest to the factory will get theirs first.

 

[WileyTheMan]

And more than likely they will move on to another region before they fulfill all reservations in the current regions, which again throws in complexity. There just isn't enough information to even make an educated guess on when us non-Tesla/SpaceX employees will start getting delivery..

 

[Neohippy]

I'm in Florida and a non Tesla owner. I stood in line for my reservation. I'm hoping to get my car mid 2018 but that's if production is on time. Honestly with all the issues of the first cars I'm ok with waiting. Having a reliable car is more important to me then being one of the first on the road.

 

[SureValla]

I'm in Florida and a non Tesla owner. I stood in line for my reservation. I'm hoping to get my car mid 2018 but that's if production is on time. Honestly with all the issues of the first cars I'm ok with waiting. Having a reliable car is more important to me then being one of the first on the road.

This is exactly the timeline I tell everyone that asks me this question (CT east coast line waiter)

 

[Trips]

I would expect a current US owner to receive one in 2017.

Original Plan: Employees, Current owners, Presale (Line waiters), After reveal group.
Delivered by region, starting in California moving east and then to the rest of the World.

April 1st 2016
EM "Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..."

April 3rd, 2016
Twitter User: "it's unfair that previous #tesla owners get first dibs for #Model3. Seems that lot of new customers won't get the $7500 rebate"
EM: "Our production ramp should enable large numbers of non x/S customers to receive the credit"
Twitter User: "AWESOME! Planning on delivering up to vehicle 199,999 and then waiting until the next 2 quarters to deliver the rest?"
EM: "We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty."

May 4th 2016
EM said he expects to produce as many as 200,000 of the Model 3's in the second half of 2017.

May 7th 2016
Twitter User: “ya think those of us who ordered pre reveal will see it late 2017?”
EM: "I think so"

 

[Jason Bourne]

I'm in Florida and a non Tesla owner. I stood in line for my reservation. I'm hoping to get my car mid 2018 but that's if production is on time. Honestly with all the issues of the first cars I'm ok with waiting. Having a reliable car is more important to me then being one of the first on the road.

I am in PA and a non-owner. I reserved instore on the morning of 3/31. Tesla has publically announced that they intend to delivery approximately 100,000 units before the end of 2017, so based on that I predict I'll get mine in 2017.

 

[tga]

The reason given for CA first was so that the early cars would be "close to home" if there were major issues that needed to be addressed. If there are indeed ~15,000 employee reservations, that might be enough of a CA-based test fleet (assuming the bulk of employees are in CA). So deliveries to the entire US could start soon after (ie, west coast residents may not get a huge bump).

 

[pinski]

This is exactly the timeline I tell everyone that asks me this question (CT east coast line waiter)

Same here - another east coast line waiter. I'm hoping mid-2018, but will be thrilled if it's available sooner than that. The gas shortage here thanks to the Colonial Pipeline issue has only further emboldened me and I think finally got my wife fully on board .

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Check out this new tool I created:

Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator

 

[Big Dog]

I would expect a current US owner to receive one in 2017.

I'm betting that is optimistic; only a few will be delivered in Dec-17, IMO.

 

[Red Sage]

I'm betting that is optimistic; only a few will be delivered in Dec-17, IMO.

Well, I differ with that opinion. Optimism beats pessimism or even realism any day of the week. Remember, since Tesla originally only expected to have sold around 15,000 of the Model S per year worldwide...? That means they will have sold on the order of 11 years worth of them by the end of 2016. A whole big huge pile of things on the 'What IF...?' pile have to go drastically wrong between now and the end of 2017 for the Model ☰ to not reach that goal. That is, of 115,000 Reservations made prior to the Model ☰ Reveal Part I, and 7% of them were current Tesla owners, that would be 8,050 cars. If Tesla Motors cannot deliver over 10,000 of the Model ☰ before the end of 2017, they'd might as well give up now and offer the whole company to Warren Buffet for something like $2.50 per share.

 

[FirstSea]

I want to believe, but I truly think Tesla is just going deliver ☰s for employees in 2017. The ☰ is going to make or break Tesla, so they have to make the launch a success; Tesla can't afford to have the same problem they had with the X at the scale of the ☰.

Yet, Elon might prove me wrong, I won't be surprised if he did.