Breaking News: Class Action Lawsuit Filed Against Tesla re: FSD

[Barklikeadog]

It's so, so, so much worse. Talking about "% of the time" is the worst possible metric because it betrays the implicit logarithmic nature of the statement.

Every 1 : 1,000 minutes the system fails: "This works 99.9% of the time."
Every 1: 100,000,000 minutes the system fails: "The system works 99.999999% of the time."

A <0.1% improvement means a 1,000x or 100,000% improvement.

Tesla says their drivers without autopilot are being involved in an accident every 2 million miles. If we assume half of the time they're at fault. That means Tesla humans make a fault every 4 million miles.

If we thought that FSD Beta was 10x less safe than a person that's the difference between FSD being 99.999975% reliable (Human) and 99.99975% reliable.

Likely FSD City Streets is probably at least 10,000x less safe than a human. Even if Tesla the distance between predicted accidents by 50% every 6 months...

log 10,000 / log 150% = 11 years.

(1.5^22.7 = 10,000)

Personally, I won't take the refund because I can't wait to see how Tesla plans to upgrade my car to stay up to date over the next 2-20 years for every necessary update.

What would that ratio be if the 'autopilot' driver never interfered?

Safety warning systems on autos are proven to reduce serious accidents. People willing to pay for more safety systems tend to already be better, more defensive drivers.

I've always looked at it from the perspective that autopilot/fsd has a human backup safety system. That human is on avg a 30-60 yr old six figure income earner which is far and away the safest driving demographic in the road.

 

[2101Guy]

The lawsuit calls out Tesla’s features terminology, including the name “Autopilot,” as well as Elon Musk’s public statements and tweets regarding the perpetually unfinished Full Self-Driving system. It specifically mentions Musk’s claim that an autonomous US cross-country trip will be performed by 2018, and his 2019 claims about putting 1 million robotaxis on the road, saying, “A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software... everything.”

 

[EvilNuff]

It's so, so, so much worse. Talking about "% of the time" is the worst possible metric because it betrays the implicit logarithmic nature of the statement.
...

Just to clarify, I was not talking about % of the time, I never said that (others do all the time I know but it was me you quoted ). I was talking % of the way to completion aka 100% functionality. With that said, I agree completely with your post, well said.

 

[hooty]

Tesla has made so much money on the free loans provided by consumers that they can afford to pay back everyone who wants their money. Not that they will choose to.

Assuming on average 300 thousand people paid 10,000 for FSD, that is 3 billion.

Punitive damages may then be in the ten$ of billion$

 

[hooty]

Anyway, mind boggling this took so many years. Such a relief that Musk’s chickens are finally coming home to roost

 

[johnnycnote]

IMHO, "Elon said/tweeted..." doesn't mean anything. What the contract promises is what matters, and the contract promises nothing about full FSD's availability by a specific time. But yeah, like others have stated ref the class action, Tesla will pay the lawyers billions and FSD buyers will get a 10% off coupon for the Tesla store

Anyone out there looking to purch a Tesla. Do it. It's a fantastic vehicle. But, don't pre-purchase FSD thinking that it will be ready for the masses anytime soon. If you gotta scratch that itch, pay for it on a monthly basis ($199 currently) until you decide it's not worth it

 

[2101Guy]

IMHO, "Elon said/tweeted..." doesn't mean anything. What the contract promises is what matters, and the contract promises nothing about full FSD's availability by a specific time.

You do realize that the California DMV and the law firm representing the class action suit, AND Tesla know this already, right?

 

[loquitur]

You do realize that the California DMV and the law firm representing the class action suit, AND Tesla know this already, right?

That's why gullibility pays sometimes, unfortunately. Neither the lawyers nor Musk are helping here.

As a San Francisco-based FSD beta driver, I think safety statistics "will out" favorably,
showing that the hybrid combination of human/FSD is likely safer than human-only in cities.
Here I use it when I can to help protect against the crazy "VRUs" here, like peds jumping off
medians, aggressive bicyclists, and skateboard punks, organ-donors all.

That said, in a previous life, I helped support someone through law school, and actually saw
a speech once by plaintiff's attorney Joe Cotchett. He's highly regarded and "tough as nails".
Any settlement may have to be rather larger than the usual two-cents-on-the-dollar
payouts for securities-related class-action suits.

 

[joenathan]

IMHO, "Elon said/tweeted..." doesn't mean anything.

The SEC would beg to differ.


"A federal judge has rejected Elon Musk’s bid to throw out a securities fraud settlement over tweets claiming that Musk had the funding to take Tesla private in 2018."

Elon Musk ordered to abide by SEC settlement over 2018 tweets

Elon Musk's request to scrap a settlement with securities regulators over 2018 tweets claiming he had the funding to take Tesla private is being denied by a federal judge in New York.

www.pbs.org

 

[johnnycnote]

The SEC would beg to differ.


"A federal judge has rejected Elon Musk’s bid to throw out a securities fraud settlement over tweets claiming that Musk had the funding to take Tesla private in 2018."

Elon Musk ordered to abide by SEC settlement over 2018 tweets

Elon Musk's request to scrap a settlement with securities regulators over 2018 tweets claiming he had the funding to take Tesla private is being denied by a federal judge in New York.

www.pbs.org

That's completely different, and much more serious IMO, than the CA FSD class action lawsuit we're discussing

 

[johnnycnote]

That's why gullibility pays sometimes, unfortunately. Neither the lawyers nor Musk are helping here.

As a San Francisco-based FSD beta driver, I think safety statistics "will out" favorably,
showing that the hybrid combination of human/FSD is likely safer than human-only in cities.
Here I use it when I can to help protect against the crazy "VRUs" here, like peds jumping off
medians, aggressive bicyclists, and skateboard punks, organ-donors all.

That said, in a previous life, I helped support someone through law school, and actually saw
a speech once by plaintiff's attorney Joe Cotchett. He's highly regarded and "tough as nails".
Any settlement may have to be rather larger than the usual two-cents-on-the-dollar
payouts for securities-related class-action suits.

Correct, it does pay sometimes. But very little. If people would have read the fine print instead of listening to the hype, it's not likely that they would have moved forward with the FSD purchase. The law firms representing the FSD class action suit will be the big winners

 

[2101Guy]

whats funny is even the Tesla/Elon supporters on this forum...arent giving Tesla (nor their new "hardcore litigation Lawyer team") a chance. Its "the law firm WILL win big/they will get the most money" as their verdict already. NO ONE is saying "this will get tossed out quickly, as Elon never said "i promise" or gave a timeline.

Dudes...at LEAST give Tesla/Elon/his "hardcore litigation team" at least a fighting chance on this one! you never now, Elon may fight and actually win this one. (unlike that last one with the multi million dollar settlement).

 

[Dewg]

That's completely different, and much more serious IMO, than the CA FSD class action lawsuit we're discussing

Yup - SEC rules are very strict with regards to market manipulation, and insider trading.

 

[eipi10]

honestly speaking, I don’t even know what the defense would be. Can you imagine what the emails of employees working on FSD say? Pretty sure they don’t say that there will be robotaxis in 2019.

 

[eipi10]

This is exactly the problem with FSD. What people not in software don't realize is that even if you (optimistically IMO) believe that its 90% or even 95% of the way to 100% automation, that's only roughly half (likely less than half) of the total effort needed to achieve level 5. Elon pushing the robotaxi idea is at minimum a full decade early. Likely not even possible with the current hardware. This class action is probably only the first of many anti FSD lawsuits.

I mean, is this even 50% of the way there? Driving satisfactorily 90% of the time seems like 5% of the way there to me. None of the hard problems have been solved. The hard problems are not how to stay in a lane, stay behind the car ahead of you, and stop at red lights and stop signs. The hard problems are how to handle the infinite number of random and unpredictable events and road conditions that can arise while driving. Realistically, we are several decades away from a computer that can solve those problems.

 

[2101Guy]

honestly speaking, I don’t even know what the defense would be. Can you imagine what the emails of employees working on FSD say? Pretty sure they don’t say that there will be robotaxis in 2019.

TMC defense advisors say that the defense will be "bUt eLoN NeVer uSeD ThE wOrd pRomise AnD tWeEtS dOnT CoUnT"

 

[2101Guy]

I mean, is this even 50% of the way there? Driving satisfactorily 90% of the time seems like 5% of the way there to me. None of the hard problems have been solved. The hard problems are not how to stay in a lane, stay behind the car ahead of you, and stop at red lights and stop signs. The hard problems are how to handle the infinite number of random and unpredictable events and road conditions that can arise while driving. Realistically, we are several decades away a computer that can solve those problems.

ALL of that gets solved by 12/31/2022, when FSD will be "finished"(c)ElonMusk

 

[hooty]

Will be interesting to see if people will demand refunds for their entire car
If you bought the car to get 'FSD/robotaxi' & would have otherwise not have done so, if you knew it couldn't be achieved, a legal argument may be able to be made for the entire car cost to be refunded
I think there was a legal case in Germany earlier this year where Tesla had to refund the entire car cost due to misrepresentations on autopilot

 

[Dewg]

Will be interesting to see if people will demand refunds for their entire car
If you bought the car to get 'FSD/robotaxi' & would have otherwise not have done so, if you knew it couldn't be achieved, a legal argument may be able to be made for the entire car cost to be refunded

There were a few people discussing this in another thread. Anyone could claim they made that decision, even if they didn't, allowing a refund of the car.

It would flood the market with used Tesla's which would drive down the price a bit. As long as the market remains hot for the cars, Tesla would make back a good portion of the funds they had to pay out for refunds. Likely the court would not require a complete refund, but a pro-rated refund, since that would be more reasonable. Probably Kelly Blue Book.

 

[DJT1]

Will be interesting to see if people will demand refunds for their entire car
If you bought the car to get 'FSD/robotaxi' & would have otherwise not have done so, if you knew it couldn't be achieved, a legal argument may be able to be made for the entire car cost to be refunded
I think there was a legal case in Germany earlier this year where Tesla had to refund the entire car cost due to misrepresentations on autopilot

Sure, if the car has zero miles on it. Otherwise, it’s proration.