Brexit

[Singer3000]

Oh, I know; given the history, however, I do feel sort of the same way as when I say "to hell with the Afrikaaners".


Bingo.



Certainly, but the main (hard right wing extremist) Unionist party is asking for the impossible and nonviable. The DUP simultaneously demands free movement to the UK and free movement to Ireland (because nobody wants the Troubles back) ***and*** refuses to vote no confidence in May. I mean, prior to the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, their actions would have BEEN a no confidence vote and caused fresh elections -- they need to actually take a side. They have three choices (close the UK border, close the Irish border, or toss May out and cancel Brexit) and they're refusing all three. (I know which one I'd choose -- #3, no confidence.)

Of course, the DUP are living in fantasy land -- I just checked, and the DUP is currently a hotbed of climate deniers, evolution deniers, HIV deniers, anti-gay-rights types, anti-abortion extremists, etc.

Most Unionist parties have been equally obstinate and pigheaded since the 19th century, frankly.



She'll be judged even more harshly for trying to run a government without confidence, without supply, after being found in contempt of Parliament, trying to force Parliament to vote the third time on the same bill... her behavior is looking very, very much like the behavior of the various Kings (Charles I, James II, etc) which caused Parliament to take power away from the King.

You’re smoking musk’s 420 if you think I’m going to get involved in discussing South African politics as well!

I don’t know about you but I’m quite looking forward to Season x of The Crown in a few years time when we’ll get to see a nice portrayal of Betty Windsor laying the final smack down to May. Which will happen behind closed doors any day now if it hasn’t already.

On your three options, I’ve touched on the mystery box 4 already but it bears repeating. The free movement of people between the UK and Ireland is enshrined in law predating even the European Coal and Steel Community by decades, yet alone the EU. The laissez fair customs border is of course barely two decades old. There are ways of maintaining both the intention of the early 20th century arrangement and WTO requirements using 21st century technology. But it needs goodwill, of which I don’t see much from anyone these days (Westminster, Dublin or Brussels).

 

[Singer3000]

Yes.

The Brexit affected the future life of a lot of young people who would have voted in higher numbers if they had known the outcome could have gone the other way.

What part of bets being betting markets showing 88% for remain did you miss ?

ps : This is similar to how everyone in US thought Hillary was sure to win and proceeded to act accordingly, there by enabling Trump to win. Whether Obama not talking about Trump Russia connection or FBI director disclosing a "reopening" with a week to go. Why would they not assume that - after all - some poll aggregators were giving >90% chance of Hillary win.

You may find this interesting on why the Brexit vote was perceived by some to be a shock but not to others.

Why Remainers were shocked by the referendum result, but Leavers less so | Coffee House

 

[neroden]

• May's letter makes it sound like she may resign if her deal does not get passed. When asked about this, her office issued a non-denial response.

She should have resigned months ago. Here's hoping? Betcha she refuses to leave, though -- it's in her character.

 

[neroden]

On your three options, I’ve touched on the mystery box 4 already but it bears repeating. The free movement of people between the UK and Ireland is enshrined in law predating even the European Coal and Steel Community by decades, yet alone the EU. The laissez fair customs border is of course barely two decades old. There are ways of maintaining both the intention of the early 20th century arrangement and WTO requirements using 21st century technology. But it needs goodwill, of which I don’t see much from anyone these days (Westminster, Dublin or Brussels).

Just to be complete here, I don't see any goodwill coming out of Belfast either.

 

[AndyH]

She should have resigned months ago. Here's hoping? Betcha she refuses to leave, though -- it's in her character.

This lady's not for leaving... Her style is more of a grand exit with pomp and circumstance and all.

 

[Buckminster]

2 week extension with no strings secured. May has wound up MPs by blaming them. EU/Macron seem intent on inciting UK public to push for a no deal. Merkel will play her conciliatory cards soon.

My update:
No deal - 25%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Theresa May deal - 45%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 5%

 

[Dutchie]

2 week extension with no strings secured. May has wound up MPs by blaming them. EU/Macron seem intent on inciting UK public to push for a no deal. Merkel will play her conciliatory cards soon.

My update:
No deal - 25%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Theresa May deal - 45%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 5%

Revoke Art. 50 as per online poll which has more than 2 million signatures in 24 hours?

 

[RobStark]

Revoke Art. 50 as per online poll which has more than 2 million signatures in 24 hours?

17.4 million voted to Leave in 24 hours on June 23, 2016.

 

[Buckminster]

I have no idea what is going to happen now. EU don't need to budge. May deal won't go through. May will then ask MPs to vote on 7 options apparently....

My update:
No deal - 30% creeping up....
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Theresa May deal - 25%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 25%
Remain following referendum - 10%

 

[EVNow]

Revoke Art. 50 as per online poll which has more than 2 million signatures in 24 hours?

That doesn't make any sense - they should ask for a new vote along with a general election. Only voters can reverse a previous vote.

 

[Dutchie]

That doesn't make any sense - they should ask for a new vote along with a general election. Only voters can reverse a previous vote.

Not quite true as the referendum was just a non-binding one. The government has the legal power to neglect it.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Revoke Art. 50 as per online poll which has more than 2 million signatures in 24 hours?

Online petition, not a poll. The UK government has an official petition site.

Petition: Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

3,882,926 as of now

There was another one that wasn't as popular.

Petition: Leave the EU without a deal in March 2019.

392,966

Teresa May might be trying to get the deal through, but at this point she might also just be trolling.

 

[STARR X]

I have no idea what is going to happen now. EU don't need to budge. May deal won't go through. May will then ask MPs to vote on 7 options apparently....

I don’t claim to be near as informed on this matter then you. But it seems all along to me, that the simplest solution for the people who want out of the EU is to do nothing at all and crash out. Easiest to do and then wait to see how painful it is. That will ultimately cause decisions to be made.

 

[EVNow]

Not quite true as the referendum was just a non-binding one. The government has the legal power to neglect it.

Not everything that is legal is democratic.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That doesn't make any sense - they should ask for a new vote along with a general election. Only voters can reverse a previous vote.

Revoking Article 50, doesn't mean that they wouldn't leave, but that they'd cancel the current leave. Then if they _do_ want to leave, with or without a deal they could get their act together and prepare, before invoking Article 50 again.

 

[Mader Levap]

they could get their act together and prepare

Judging by their performance in last 2 years, I wouldn't hold breath.

 

[EVNow]

Revoking Article 50, doesn't mean that they wouldn't leave, but that they'd cancel the current leave. Then if they _do_ want to leave, with or without a deal they could get their act together and prepare, before invoking Article 50 again.

They can do this by postponing the leave and going for a second referendum.

Yes, May can say she is too inept to be able to handle leave now - so she is going to cancel it, and then invoke it again once she gets ready. But this is as likely as Trump coming out against white supremacy apart from the fact that May will be forced out of the office.

 

[YoungStranger]

Revoking Article 50, doesn't mean that they wouldn't leave, but that they'd cancel the current leave. Then if they _do_ want to leave, with or without a deal they could get their act together and prepare, before invoking Article 50 again.

Sort of... but realistically it means Remain... unfortunately in 2016,people voted to turn the clock back 50 years... all that’s done is broken the mainspring

Whatever your views, gaining 5 million + signatures on a petition is a few days and bringing over a million people out into the streets of the Capital is impressive by any measure, and should have weight in any normal functioning democracy.

Mays Deal is very different from that which was sold in 2016. We deserve a vote on that.. Democracy is a process not a single action

 

[Buckminster]

Mays Deal is very different from that which was sold in 2016.

Given the range of views from "no deal" all the way to remain, I think the May deal is remarkably close to what was offered. Being trapped in the backstop is pretty much the only problem.

We could do fine in a "no deal" but we won't because we won't embrace it. Likewise, if we embrace the deal, we will do fine. Embracing the possibility of being trapped in the backstop is part of it - free EU membership! The EU would let us out if they thought we might enjoy it.

 

[Dutchie]

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Afterwards I thought my comment was a bit harsh as a lot of people of outside USA have complete misunderstanding of the USA and the role of history in that country too. Besides, the USA is really big. The USA has some good things. I have lived in several countries and I don't think it is the greatest country. I wouldn't want to live there. But this is my personal opinion