TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Brexit

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Buckminster, Dec 6, 2018.

  1. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2018
    Messages:
    4,327
    Location:
    Vienna
    #21 Fact Checking, Dec 13, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2018
    Yeah - and the introduction of the "Euro gold standard" in 2000 basically repeated economic history: it repeated the boom/bust cycles of growth followed by depressions that the U.S. suffered from every ~10 years.

    A little known historic fact is how stable today's modern economies are and how mild our recessions are, comparatively: in the 1800's and early 1900's there were multiple "Great Depressions" in the U.S. before the last, biggest one in 1929-1933, triggering depressions almost like clockwork:
    There hasn't been a pro forma depression (countrywide economic contraction) in the U.S. since 1929, only recessions (slow growth), which is pretty remarkable: those predictable boom/bust cycles ended in 1933-1934, when the gold standard was effectively abandoned under Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and the Federal Reserve started acting as an infinite backstop to the banking system.

    This is what I tried to point out in my argument to @avoigt: there's nothing surprising about the Eurozone outcome - it's literally a textbook outcome of the flawed economic rules of the Eurozone.

    But there's a remarkable ignorance in the German press regarding these economic arguments - these arguments get very little airtime and almost always get turned into a false 'Germany vs. Greece', "Ants vs. Grasshopper" morality play about debtors living beyond their means, cheating on taxes and not balancing their budgets. (Which is true in the case of Greece which did all of that and more, but misses the point.)

    If we want to talk countries the real story is not Greece but Spain who (unlike Germany) had a budget surplus before the Euro crisis hit, yet suffered an almost as bad fate as Greece...

    Bad assumptions and flawed logic are not limited to the ICE manufacturing industry! :D

    And no, I'm not picking on Germany with an U.S.-centric view or bias: the German education and health care system is exemplary compared to the U.S., and the role of money in politics much better regulated, the use of green energy is much more advanced than in the U.S. and the public transportation network is phenomenal.

    (Nor would I have a U.S.-centric viewpoint being a European myself. :cool:)
     
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  2. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    4,833
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    There was an interesting podcast by 538 on Brexit with 2 UK professors of political science.

    Politics Podcast: Theresa May Still Has A Job, But Brexit Still Has No Solution

    The main takeaway was that there is no solution to the Brexit question now - since none of the 3 groups backing different Brexit options have a majority and are all backed into a position that would require major loss of face to come out of.

    Postponing the March deadline is still possible if another Brexit referendum of some sort were to be held. Rest of the EU would probably agree to postpone the deadline.
     
  3. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    13,310
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    The biggest problem is that the only way to get a new referendum is to have a new general election and elect Labor. But the Tories and DUP are hanging onto power with their fingernails and won't allow it.

    This was, prior to the mid-19th century, a situation where the King or Queen would step in and demand the resignation of the Prime Minister (who has already been found in contempt of Parliament! for the first time EVER!) But instead Britain is having a constitutional crisis.
     
  4. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2015
    Messages:
    3,291
    Location:
    AB
    The UK doesn't have a constitution.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  5. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    4,833
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    UK doesn’t have a written constitution.
     
    • Like x 2
  6. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    999
    Location:
    UK
    So Corbyn probably has got himself in trouble by calling May "Stupid Woman". His opposition to government has been worse than useless. May getting stronger like the Terminator..
    Meanwhile, Brexit continues!
    Juncker threatening to make us into Cuba... Parliament have 3 weeks off, so everything must be okay.
     
  7. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    13,310
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    He didn't, though. He called May and the Tories backing her "stupid people"...

    ...which I think everyone agrees with. This is going to backfire on May.
     
  8. Wol747

    Wol747 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Location:
    Australia
    Can you post the source of that? It's the best chart on the issue that I've seen for those of us bears of little brain!
     
  9. Wol747

    Wol747 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Location:
    Australia
    Same as "giving" Canada to the USA - problem fixed.

    We Brits stood up to the Argentines during the Falklands row because we have the strange idea that people should be able to decide their own future. Exactly the same thing with THE referendum.
     
  10. Wol747

    Wol747 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Location:
    Australia
    Quite. For anyone who has no idea about it Google Target 2 - simply put, the Target 2 agreement allowed IOUs in Germany's favour to be made by EU countries, leading to billions of unfunded (and unfundable) promises to pay Germany for goods these last few years. I can't remember the latest figure (it goes up in the same way as that US deficit sign near Times Square) but it's around a trillion IIRC. Fortunately most Germans have been kept in the dark over it but when they realise their taxes will have to fund it.....
     
    • Informative x 2
  11. Wol747

    Wol747 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Location:
    Australia
    Perhaps you are joking?

    I'm not a professional lipreader but it was clear as air: he said "Stupid woman".

    So what? Argue about the first word, but by all accounts she is a person of the female persuasion: if the comment was "Stupid man" about the chancellor - would anyone get frothy about it? No.

    It again shows what a inept crowd are "running" (my quotes) the country when the most important constitutional issue of the last thousand years is on the table.
     
    • Love x 1
  12. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    999
    Location:
    UK
    So it seems that Corbyn has gotten away with it - saved by the drones... It will make a material difference at the polls though IMO - just as has the antisemitism issues. We are probably just after peak-feminism in the UK right now.
    Brexit is biggest constitutional issue since Charles I/Cromwell/Charles II. A mere 370 years.. Also Henry VIII Vs Pope & reformation was a big deal too.
    And we shouldn't forget the corn laws debacle only 150 years ago - lots of similarities with Brexit around free trade.

    On Brexit itself, looks like "no deal" vote will happen and get ruled out. No levers left other than to delay A50. I'm still sticking with my 10 year cap to the backstop plan. If the EU throw us that little bone, a lot of goodwill can be saved.
     
  13. cheshire cat

    cheshire cat Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2016
    Messages:
    481
    Location:
    county palatine of chester UK
    Happy new year and keep up the "educashun" of us lesser (fiscally speaking ) mortals
     
    • Funny x 1
  14. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    999
    Location:
    UK
    OT but interesting for this crowd:
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  15. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    8,114
    Location:
    Maine
    She's going to quit at the next election anyway, because she's already damaged from their ineptitude. Right now, she's just trying to play Hard Brexit chicken with the EU and parliament.
     
    • Like x 3
  16. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    999
    Location:
    UK
  17. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    8,114
    Location:
    Maine
    Not that it matters, since it's party members. All that matters at this point is whether any key decision-makers crack before the deadline: the EU (backstop not a lock in), parliament (votes for it in fear of Hard Brexit; vote of no confidence), or May (withdraws Brexit).
     
  18. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    999
    Location:
    UK
    I think that the Conservative party members are fairly important as they will be voting in the next Prime Minister. It will make back benchers think twice about backing May's deal even with a tangible change to the backstop. That is why the EU need to help now before momentum builds. If the deal is voted down in parliament then much more significant changes will be needed which the EU won't be able to deliver. At that point the no deal likelihood starts looking 50:50. The Brits have more pride than brains and the MPs believe in democracy at all costs.
     
  19. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    13,310
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    The lipreaders I know say "people" and "woman" look very similar.
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC