Brexit

[Fact Checking]

Every serious economist said that the "balanced budget" and "no free money from the central bank" rules of the Eurozone treaties -- DEMANDED BY GERMANY -- would cause massive unemployment. Which they did.

Yeah - and the introduction of the "Euro gold standard" in 2000 basically repeated economic history: it repeated the boom/bust cycles of growth followed by depressions that the U.S. suffered from every ~10 years.

A little known historic fact is how stable today's modern economies are and how mild our recessions are, comparatively: in the 1800's and early 1900's there were multiple "Great Depressions" in the U.S. before the last, biggest one in 1929-1933, triggering depressions almost like clockwork:

• Panic of 1873 - Wikipedia
  
• Panic of 1884 - Wikipedia
  
• Baring crisis - Wikipedia
  
• Panic of 1893 - Wikipedia
• Panic of 1896 - Wikipedia
• Panic of 1907 - Wikipedia
• Depression of 1920–21 - Wikipedia

There hasn't been a pro forma depression (countrywide economic contraction) in the U.S. since 1929, only recessions (slow growth), which is pretty remarkable: those predictable boom/bust cycles ended in 1933-1934, when the gold standard was effectively abandoned under Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and the Federal Reserve started acting as an infinite backstop to the banking system.

This is what I tried to point out in my argument to @avoigt: there's nothing surprising about the Eurozone outcome - it's literally a textbook outcome of the flawed economic rules of the Eurozone.

But there's a remarkable ignorance in the German press regarding these economic arguments - these arguments get very little airtime and almost always get turned into a false 'Germany vs. Greece', "Ants vs. Grasshopper" morality play about debtors living beyond their means, cheating on taxes and not balancing their budgets. (Which is true in the case of Greece which did all of that and more, but misses the point.)

If we want to talk countries the real story is not Greece but Spain who (unlike Germany) had a budget surplus before the Euro crisis hit, yet suffered an almost as bad fate as Greece...

Bad assumptions and flawed logic are not limited to the ICE manufacturing industry!

And no, I'm not picking on Germany with an U.S.-centric view or bias: the German education and health care system is exemplary compared to the U.S., and the role of money in politics much better regulated, the use of green energy is much more advanced than in the U.S. and the public transportation network is phenomenal.

(Nor would I have a U.S.-centric viewpoint being a European myself. )

 

[EVNow]

There was an interesting podcast by 538 on Brexit with 2 UK professors of political science.

Politics Podcast: Theresa May Still Has A Job, But Brexit Still Has No Solution

The main takeaway was that there is no solution to the Brexit question now - since none of the 3 groups backing different Brexit options have a majority and are all backed into a position that would require major loss of face to come out of.

Postponing the March deadline is still possible if another Brexit referendum of some sort were to be held. Rest of the EU would probably agree to postpone the deadline.

 

[neroden]

The biggest problem is that the only way to get a new referendum is to have a new general election and elect Labor. But the Tories and DUP are hanging onto power with their fingernails and won't allow it.

This was, prior to the mid-19th century, a situation where the King or Queen would step in and demand the resignation of the Prime Minister (who has already been found in contempt of Parliament! for the first time EVER!) But instead Britain is having a constitutional crisis.

 

[S'toon]

The biggest problem is that the only way to get a new referendum is to have a new general election and elect Labor. But the Tories and DUP are hanging onto power with their fingernails and won't allow it.

This was, prior to the mid-19th century, a situation where the King or Queen would step in and demand the resignation of the Prime Minister (who has already been found in contempt of Parliament! for the first time EVER!) But instead Britain is having a constitutional crisis.

The UK doesn't have a constitution.

 

[EVNow]

The UK doesn't have a constitution.

UK doesn’t have a written constitution.

 

[Buckminster]

So Corbyn probably has got himself in trouble by calling May "Stupid Woman". His opposition to government has been worse than useless. May getting stronger like the Terminator..
Meanwhile, Brexit continues!
Juncker threatening to make us into Cuba... Parliament have 3 weeks off, so everything must be okay.

 

[neroden]

So Corbyn probably has got himself in trouble by calling May "Stupid Woman".

He didn't, though. He called May and the Tories backing her "stupid people"...

...which I think everyone agrees with. This is going to backfire on May.

 

[Wol747]

The image was not visible on the desktop - here is a better inline image of the latest global warming data:

I predict that as temperatures rise, people will be more willing to purchase EVs and will be more willing to invest into $TSLA as well, which is the obviously the more 'future proof' investment, compared to coal, oil and natural gas industry investments.

This probably has an effect on $TSLA price action already, it's just that we don't know the exact extent of it.

Can you post the source of that? It's the best chart on the issue that I've seen for those of us bears of little brain!

 

[Wol747]

The easiest is to give Northern Ireland back to the Republic (I think the majority of people of Northern Ireland and the Republic want that anyway) and go cold turkey in March

Same as "giving" Canada to the USA - problem fixed.

We Brits stood up to the Argentines during the Falklands row because we have the strange idea that people should be able to decide their own future. Exactly the same thing with THE referendum.

 

[Wol747]

Very few in Germany understand the collective responsibility they have for the Eurozone situation of asymmetric inflation rates in a single shared currency. The Eurozone is basically a modern experiment for how the gold standard would work in modern economies: it would be terribly inefficient and wasteful.

Quite. For anyone who has no idea about it Google Target 2 - simply put, the Target 2 agreement allowed IOUs in Germany's favour to be made by EU countries, leading to billions of unfunded (and unfundable) promises to pay Germany for goods these last few years. I can't remember the latest figure (it goes up in the same way as that US deficit sign near Times Square) but it's around a trillion IIRC. Fortunately most Germans have been kept in the dark over it but when they realise their taxes will have to fund it.....

 

[Wol747]

He didn't, though. He called May and the Tories backing her "stupid people"...

...which I think everyone agrees with. This is going to backfire on May.

Perhaps you are joking?

I'm not a professional lipreader but it was clear as air: he said "Stupid woman".

So what? Argue about the first word, but by all accounts she is a person of the female persuasion: if the comment was "Stupid man" about the chancellor - would anyone get frothy about it? No.

It again shows what a inept crowd are "running" (my quotes) the country when the most important constitutional issue of the last thousand years is on the table.

 

[Buckminster]

Perhaps you are joking?

I'm not a professional lipreader but it was clear as air: he said "Stupid woman".

So what? Argue about the first word, but by all accounts she is a person of the female persuasion: if the comment was "Stupid man" about the chancellor - would anyone get frothy about it? No.

It again shows what a inept crowd are "running" (my quotes) the country when the most important constitutional issue of the last thousand years is on the table.

So it seems that Corbyn has gotten away with it - saved by the drones... It will make a material difference at the polls though IMO - just as has the antisemitism issues. We are probably just after peak-feminism in the UK right now.
Brexit is biggest constitutional issue since Charles I/Cromwell/Charles II. A mere 370 years.. Also Henry VIII Vs Pope & reformation was a big deal too.
And we shouldn't forget the corn laws debacle only 150 years ago - lots of similarities with Brexit around free trade.

On Brexit itself, looks like "no deal" vote will happen and get ruled out. No levers left other than to delay A50. I'm still sticking with my 10 year cap to the backstop plan. If the EU throw us that little bone, a lot of goodwill can be saved.

 

[cheshire cat]

He didn't, though. He called May and the Tories backing her "stupid people"...

...which I think everyone agrees with. This is going to backfire on May.

Happy new year and keep up the "educashun" of us lesser (fiscally speaking ) mortals

 

[Buckminster]

OT but interesting for this crowd:

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

He didn't, though. He called May and the Tories backing her "stupid people"...

...which I think everyone agrees with. This is going to backfire on May.

She's going to quit at the next election anyway, because she's already damaged from their ineptitude. Right now, she's just trying to play Hard Brexit chicken with the EU and parliament.

 

[Buckminster]

Incredibly, a no deal scenario is picking up momentum in the UK. As Trump would say:
Bad for the EU
Bad for the UK
Brexit: most Tory members would choose no deal over May's plan
EU need to through us a bone on the backstop before we actually shoot ourselves in the foot..

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Incredibly, a no deal scenario is picking up momentum in the UK. As Trump would say:
Bad for the EU
Bad for the UK
Brexit: most Tory members would choose no deal over May's plan
EU need to through us a bone on the backstop before we actually shoot ourselves in the foot..

Not that it matters, since it's party members. All that matters at this point is whether any key decision-makers crack before the deadline: the EU (backstop not a lock in), parliament (votes for it in fear of Hard Brexit; vote of no confidence), or May (withdraws Brexit).

 

[Buckminster]

I think that the Conservative party members are fairly important as they will be voting in the next Prime Minister. It will make back benchers think twice about backing May's deal even with a tangible change to the backstop. That is why the EU need to help now before momentum builds. If the deal is voted down in parliament then much more significant changes will be needed which the EU won't be able to deliver. At that point the no deal likelihood starts looking 50:50. The Brits have more pride than brains and the MPs believe in democracy at all costs.

 

[cheshire cat]

Poems - Norman and Saxon. Tory Members Back No Deal Over May's Deal by More Than 2 to 1 - FYI. Happy and prosperous new year to ALL

 

[neroden]

Perhaps you are joking?

I'm not a professional lipreader but it was clear as air: he said "Stupid woman".

The lipreaders I know say "people" and "woman" look very similar.