EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, 34% want Brexit now (Brexit party + UKIP) ? Sounds like Brexit will lose a second referendum - no wonder they are so opposed to it.
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Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Mader Levap
Member
You seem to not understand I was making fun of your extremely selective and biased worldview.
You pay for civilisation (that you seem to take as granted and funded by Santa Claus) with your taxes. Get over it.
busaman
Member
i do not have a baised or selective worldview i simply say it as i see it if more peolpe and poiticians were as honest we would not have the problems we do now..
bhtooefr
Active Member
34% have Brexit as such an important issue to them that they'll vote for a single-issue party whose issue is to deliver it.
Labour & conservatives licking wounds from council elections. Now contemplating losing to Farage in EU elections. Change UK party didn't get traction. Predictably, Boris has appeared as a shoo-in for PM. May to resign following June Brexit vote. Boris will soon have his colleagues clamouring for positions to work for him. Some will run against him hoping to stand down so that he gives them a top job. This is what polarisation does.
The May deal is good - we should take it. Will the EU provide my 10 year backstop sunset clause? Seeing Farage getting an army of MEPs in a few weeks might change their minds. I expect Boris to ask for no backstop, then sunset clause and if not threaten no deal. Not sure whether the no deal threat will carry any weight given the previous votes.
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 10%
Hard Brexit - 20%
Theresa May deal or similar - 45% (with May or Boris at helm, with or without Corbyn assistance)
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 20%
The May deal is good - we should take it. Will the EU provide my 10 year backstop sunset clause? Seeing Farage getting an army of MEPs in a few weeks might change their minds. I expect Boris to ask for no backstop, then sunset clause and if not threaten no deal. Not sure whether the no deal threat will carry any weight given the previous votes.
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 10%
Hard Brexit - 20%
Theresa May deal or similar - 45% (with May or Boris at helm, with or without Corbyn assistance)
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 20%
May gone.
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit - 25%
Theresa May deal or similar - 30%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 20%
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit - 25%
Theresa May deal or similar - 30%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 20%
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Whats the difference between No Deal and Hard Brexit ?
With a new (probably more Rt Wing) PM, looks like a crash out seems quite likely now.
No deal would be complete carnage.
A Hard Brexit would encompass things like:
- Canada style trade deal
- Managed "no deal". EU agree a series of basic deals from the ground up.
- A significant change to the May deal (somehow remove the backstop)
I expect Boris to win in July. He has stated we will leave in Oct with or without a deal. I assume that his plan will be to threaten no deal in order to get May's deal with backstop changes. Failing that, plead with EU for managed no deal discussions to begin ASAP (60% of the May deal broken up into baby steps?). Expect many more plot twists (some of them involving N. Ireland).
Macron keen for us to leave. EU sticking to their no change to May deal policy.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure threats actually work. The Parliamentary impasse has given the advantage to EU. Obviously France has more say now in what EU will do than U.K.
I think there is a much bigger chance of no deal Brexit now, followed by problems in N Ireland and Scottish independence.
Idle threats don't work but Boris will try to appear to be crazy enough to through with it (Trump style but can he pull it off?). EU will eventually learn that it is not worth it. UK brexiteering public (now~40%? - down from 52%) still want it at all cost. They still crazy.
Major NI problems following no deal and EU erecting border - 5% likelihood
Scottish independence following Brexit - 10% likelihood. We think Brexit is bad, imagine the Scots outside of UK and waiting 5 yrs for EU membership. They wouldn't be able to truck their shellfish overnight across England cheaply to a French public that won't want to pay import fees twice. Plus they will not be fresh following UK & French customs checks.
Exports to the rest of the UK make up 61 per cent of Scotland’s total exports, nearly four times the amount of trade with the EU market.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think this is a universal miscalculation leaders make. They think if only they act “determined” others will give in. History teaches us that others don’t want to appear to give in and will dig in even more. Afterall nobody wants to appease a crazy guy.
Same with NI and Scotland. They will start saying if Brits can do crazy stuff like Brexit, they can definitely declare independence and then have trade deals with Britain. They can quickly sign on to free trade deal with EU while waiting for membership.
If Brexit is a backlash against (whatever), we should expect backlash against Brexit in areas that didn’t vote for it.
No deal is a nightmare - nobody wants it. If everyone expects it then surely there will be a deal. I would think that a no deal is most likely in the situation of an expectation that a deal will be done but doesn't happen and then we drop into the default.
Again, it sounds like you want this all to happen to make the brexiteers pay for their idiocy - what about the rest of us? NI folk live in a first world internet connected country - I find the idea of them killing each other again (over class/religion) ridiculous. Things were very different before.
Scots are sensible. Brexit is bad enough - why would they want to repeat an even worse event? 20% of them live in England for a start. Also, them leaving UK could give the brexiteers a majority which in turn would make their lives worse given their geography.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm just talking about unintended but foreseeable consequences. Bush didn't want ISIS to become a big force in Iraq or Clinton didn't want slave trade to resume in Libya. But these consequences were discussed widely as likely events (well, atleast the ME chaos) before the war.
Internet - as we have seen - can be used for good or bad. Lynchings in India by goons connected with Modi's party primarily organize using WhatsApp. Srilanka recently wisely banned facebook, twitter soon after the bombings precisely because of this. Infact Brexit and Trump are in part because of Internet, not inspite of it. Internet doesn't change one's basic behavior - just emboldens them when they find out there are a lot of people just like themselves.
Scotland referendum needs just 5% of the people to switch compared to last time. Do you think a bad Brexit deal won't propel even 5% of Scotts to switch ?
bhtooefr
Active Member
Especially considering that one huge reason for Scotland to vote no on independence was EU membership.
Now, they're likely out of the EU either way, and their only way back in is independence.
As far as delays on getting back in, my guess is that, considering that Scotland voted to remain in the first place, even if EU membership was delayed, trade and policy deals could be quickly reached to resume the status quo from before Brexit, with new (albeit much longer) shipping channels being created to bypass England.
Now, they're likely out of the EU either way, and their only way back in is independence.
As far as delays on getting back in, my guess is that, considering that Scotland voted to remain in the first place, even if EU membership was delayed, trade and policy deals could be quickly reached to resume the status quo from before Brexit, with new (albeit much longer) shipping channels being created to bypass England.
You Americans have a curious view of Scotland etc. It is true many Scots dislike England. However, leaving the UK is like Texas wanting to leave the US when Trump left the TPP in order to stay in the TPP because of their loyalty to Canada. England is not really a country in its own right - no English parliament etc. We are all governed by the UK. The Scottish parliament is new and has less autonomy than a US State.
How do I perceive myself in order of priority (pre Brexit vote):
1) Tesla / Elon fanboi etc.
2) Member of planet earth - I grew up watching Star Trek and looking to expand this one
3) British / UK citizen (Military, Government, we enter the Olympics as Great Britain although not important to me)
4) Southern English / London area citizen - my workplaces in the past 5 have been wonderfully cosmopolitan
5) Arsenal fan
6) English citizen - haven't been to Northern England, Scotland, Wales, in 5+ years but go to Europe continent regularly (we are 2 hrs by train to Paris). Never been to Ireland or N Ireland. I am only English when we are doing well in the soccer World Cup. St George's flag is vilified increasingly - symbol of English football hooligans.
7) European citizen. Norway / Switzerland are more important to me than Latvia etc. I have been to Switzerland and plan to go to Norway.
8) Member of EU. We don't use Euro, not members of Schengen, can't easily / cheaply drive across the continent like many other EU countries where another country is just an hour's drive away.
9) Member of the Commonwealth although many personal ties with India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
Being a member of the EU has felt less important to us and that comes from a remainer... We are learning that perhaps it is more important than we thought. This is why we got ourselves into this mess.
It is also true however that if you repeated this for a Scot, Scotland would be significantly higher than England for me and member of UK lower. Having said that, the idea that they would vote to leave UK just seems mad to me. 100's of years of deep integration at every level including logistics, business, people & culture.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think the difference is - for people like us in US - it is not that much of an emotional issue. We can look at it more like an outside independent observer.
Last time they had a vote on Quebec independence they lost by 1% - some 50,000 votes. These things are not always rational - and big events like Brexit will have unintended consequences. Just like Iraq war did. The British leaving India did. It is just inevitable. Ofcourse it is difficult to figure out with certainty what the consequences are - but the likely ones are some kind of trouble in N.I. and Scottish independence. Then there are things like disintegration of Tories & Labor party.
About Texas leaving US - yes, it can happen. But only when something really weird happens in US that Texans just hate. BTW, remember Texas is turning Democratic and some recent polls show both Biden & Sanders beating Trump there. So, the chances of Texas leaving US is receding. OTOH, what will happen if Supreme Court bans abortion or if there is 2000 type recount fiasco that Supreme Court decides in favor of Trump - will the blue states leave US ?
ps : The few Scottish twitter accounts I follow are absolutely in favor of independence.
We have several steps before that. I can guarantee that if one of those extreme coup-type scenarios happens, the blue states will start to simply refuse to recognize the authority of the unelected federal government.
However, I think those extreme scenarios are becoming less and less likely since Trump has decided to deliberately pick fights with John Roberts (!!!) reducing the chances that Roberts will vote to support him, and even Republican election commissions are starting to get disturbed by the election thefts and ordering reruns of stolen elections.
But on the topic of state reactions to the extreme scenarios of really abusive and outrageous federal behavior:
We've already had a second "nullification crisis" -- over drug laws -- and almost nobody noticed, and the *states won*, with the federal government effectively losing power. Federal drug laws are a now dead letter in states which decide to nullify them. I'm really surprised nobody noticed.
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