-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
cheshire cat
Member
Oh no not the Graun, uncle Elon already said all there is to say about those clowns equally balance I have to say by the daily wail 
Perhaps miss Diane will count the days off
Perhaps miss Diane will count the days off 
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tuesday evening is probably the vote (8 PM GMT = 3 PM EST). So, the market could be closed by the time the vote is in. If the result comes in the last half hour, it could be chaotic as traders try to understand what happened.
Corbyn may ask for a no-confidence vote & wins it, if May fails hard. Or there could be second referendum.
I'm assuming the parliament voted for May's deal would be bullish, everything else bearish. But not sure to what extent - 0.1% or 1% or 3% ?
What does the week ahead hold for the Brexit debate?
Corbyn may ask for a no-confidence vote & wins it, if May fails hard. Or there could be second referendum.
I'm assuming the parliament voted for May's deal would be bullish, everything else bearish. But not sure to what extent - 0.1% or 1% or 3% ?
What does the week ahead hold for the Brexit debate?
MPs reject May's Brexit plan by 432 by 202 - a majority of 230
Theresa May’s plan has been rejected by votes to 432 votes to 202 - a majority of 230.
Theresa May’s plan has been rejected by votes to 432 votes to 202 - a majority of 230.
Not only rejected worst defete in history if parliament, expect a general election to be called l!!
So UK has seemingly refused the opportunity to leave the EU gracefully if the 29/3 timetable is to be respected.
Right now they can throw the country off a cliff,, forget about it altogether and stick with the great deal they already have, or try and persuade EU to extend the Article 50 date.
But even if the date is extended, even if there's a general election, what can really change? The deal from EU was already very fair and correct.
Craziness!
Right now they can throw the country off a cliff,, forget about it altogether and stick with the great deal they already have, or try and persuade EU to extend the Article 50 date.
But even if the date is extended, even if there's a general election, what can really change? The deal from EU was already very fair and correct.
Craziness!
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Only if May loses tomorrow's no confidence vote. The DUP already indicated that they'll support May.
If she survives tomorrow's vote (which is likely), two options remain: Article 50 withdrawal or hard (no deal) Brexit.
She already indicated that she doesn't want a hard Brexit, so article 50 withdrawal seems most likely to me now - with some random "we need more time" justification.
Markets would react well to Article 50 withdrawal, with tailwind for $TSLA.
Unfortunately the chaos is now about to start really which creates uncertainty and market hate uncertainty. I hope most is priced in but Deutsche Bank predicted today a Recession of -2% for the UK and a reduction of .5% in Europe in case of a hard Brexit. I doubt that this will have any impact on the SP of Tesla though.
A no confidence vote has been called from the opposition leader which will very likely be defeated. In the next 7 days the government needs to come to a conclusion how to proceed. With having lost 2:1 its unlikely that a smaller twist in the agreement will make the majority shift. Tories won't call a General Election and EU will not compromise further and even worse May has the very odd opinion that the vote 2.5 years ago has been made from the citizens knowing that most of politicians and media blankly lied to them and that a leave vote will finally result in a hard Brexit.
A delay is an option but what they want to do with that additional time if they don't call a GE or a new referendum?
Complete irresponsible and selfish behavior from Tories and Labour will now IMHO lead to a hard Brexit which is what all declared all the time they want to avoid.
Last edited:
EU could have helped more - momentum building against May and EU as I predicted would happen below. The sheer number of changes to the existing deal now required is huge given the disparity of the vote.
I wanted a 10 year cap to the backstop - this won't be enough now..
I find it rather astonishing that the DUP will support May here, given that she's snubbed them over the last few months.
A bunch of lunatics anyway...
I disagree, I think the EU has been very correct throughout the whole process. They set their stall out from the very beginning and stuck to it. I fail to see why the EU should in any way weaken their own position given that this while debacle was a decision of the UK's, actually it was a decision born of internal Tory Party in-fighting with a decision far too complex and important to be put to the great-unwashed.
You may disagree with me but I don't disagree with any of your points. As long as the EU get this deal done then they are fine. But will they? Firstly, why not cap at 10 years? They have already said as much, just not legally. Secondly, will it be worth it for not having capped the backstop. Nearly every other scenario is bad for the EU (as it is for the UK). As you clearly know yourself, do not underestimate our ability to screw it up further - the EU can control the outcome no more than us.
Just hold a new referendum. At least this time people know what they are voting for. Without the misconception that leaving the EU would be walk in the park. Without the bullshit about billions extra for the NHS. And hopefully without Russian misinformation (idle hope).
Undemocratic? There is nothing more democratic than asking people to vote on a concrete plan instead of some vague notion.
The first referendum should have required a 60% majority anyway, such important decisions cannot be taken with a simple (or slim) majority. Just like changing the constitution cannot.
Undemocratic? There is nothing more democratic than asking people to vote on a concrete plan instead of some vague notion.
The first referendum should have required a 60% majority anyway, such important decisions cannot be taken with a simple (or slim) majority. Just like changing the constitution cannot.
This is not any longer about the EU. May and her administration have put a couple of lines in the sand that contradicted each other and to be honest have been unrealistic at start and led to the situation they are in.
The EU had from day one a very clear position and did not change while we have seen from the UK an inability to conclude, decide and unite.
So, there is not really anything the EU can do to help. All options are on the table and its time to decide which one the UK want.
I don't see a referendum going well at all. I was a remainer but the leave vote is alive and kicking. It won't go away and rioting and unrest is guaranteed if they don't get a fair go at exiting.
UK is like Jekyll and Hyde on steroids. They aren't going to become sensible all of a sudden and decide what they want. This is the real world. Even a delay to Brexit is bad for the EU - continual uncertainty.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I predicted this weeks ago, it's the expected behavior of the DUP: the only reason the DUP has power is because they provide a narrow majority to May. This is an accident of history, a chance outcome of the last general election.
But with a new general election the DUP very probably loses that decisive tie-breaker position.
So they won't bring down the conservative government.
Furthermore, if there's one thing that conservatives can unite behind is that they don't want Corbyn and Labor in power.
The most probable outcome at this point appears to be, after much drama, a "temporary" withdrawal of Article 50.
Agreed but if the UK does not decide then it will result in a hard Brexit.
Not good for the EU but extremely bad for the UK. Existing and future generations in the UK will pay the price.
Even worse a hard Brexit leads to a hard border in Ireland and that begs the risk that the peace is over.
Scotland and North Ireland may decide to leave the UK and join the EU again.
Last edited:
You don't need to convince me or indeed half the population. Also, the more times that we hear it, the more we want to exit - we is mighty weird like that..
Mader Levap
Member
I can't fathom why you think EU would make such kind of concession. This is your mess. EU may give you some grace/transitional period, but 10 years?! Sounds like your wishful thinking.
The brits don't want a 10 year transition, we want 2 years (10 years is my idea to cap it from being permanent). It is the EU that has made the backstop potentially permanent to ensure we are trapped in it until the EU get favourable deal terms. I am personally okay with the deal and even being trapped in the backstop. However, I am surrounded by Brits that disagree. Half want to not get trapped in the backstop because we would not be involved in making the laws that we have to abide by. The other half want to not get trapped in the backstop so that we can do a deal with Trump.
Similar threads
