-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Yes, but our chicken just got his eyeball fried by a passing Lidar. Its the knew "deer in headlights"...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Other options:
- A "delay" of March 29 by a couple of months - to May perhaps. Requires EU27 support, if the UK government asks for it - and would probably be granted.
- Crash-out no-deal hard Brexit: because UK politicians (including Labor) backed themselves into a corner and don't realize that the EU wants this farce to end, even if it means a hard Brexit.
"Single customs zone with no responsibility and no accountability" is wishful thinking that the EU won't accept.
Mader Levap
Member
There needs to be an extension of art. 50 and then - I think there are two options.
- Referendum with question: Do you want a hard Brexit with no deal or remain in EU;
- Give Northern Ireland back to the Republic. I think most people in Northern Ireland and the Republic want that anyway and go hard Brexit.
Even an extension won't go down well with some. Referendum will cause riots. Giving the public a vote is what got us into this mess. Handing back NI will start something akin to a full on war.
They are voting now on confidence in Government - 7 minutes and we should confirm that May will be able to soldier on for a little longer!
N5329K
Active Member
But wasn’t the referendum sold on the basis of, um, lies? That all those EU payments would go straight to fund National Health and education? That there’d be no cost to pay, and so very many benefits to reap?
Do you suppose those assertions are still accepted as true?
Robin
May is pouring the £350m a week or so into the NHS - she kind of has confirmed that narrative to those that want to believe it. Public is even more polarised. So yes, the brexiteering half are undimmed. They will remain undimmed until a Brexiteer takes us through a "managed no deal / hard Brexit". Any other scenario and they will be able to (somewhat logically) state that democracy failed and we didn't get the advantages that we should have. Frictionless, zero tariff trade with the entire world is their birth right. An impossible but rather wonderful dream..
From main thread:
A few points.
1) Original referendum was stupid simple for a reason
2) Making it more complicated will be seen as elitist
3) Government has stated that a referendum will take a year to carry out. This is obviously wrong but if the question can't be agreed upon...
4) Corbyn has done so poorly, not sure a referendum would change much.
5) Labour got a beating recently in Derby on Television (right in the middle of the UK and not as brexiteering as some). There were cheers for no deal....
6) This has unwittingly turned out to be more about the relationship between the wealth of London and the poor around the rest of the country rather than our relationship with the EU. The poor are hoping to be listened to. They do have a case as Labour were centrist under Blair and the liberal elite have taken over the country narrative recently (which Corbyn is trying to address woefully)
7) Generally UK government is reactive (like most democracies) and planning permission etc. stops small businesses flourishing
May and her deal:
The good:
She is actually on point I believe (blending Brexit with remain as well as anyone could, given the situation as it stands today)
Everyone else is so polarised that it would be difficult to find a replacement that can do much better.
The bad:
She was dealt bad cards
She threw most of her cards away
She has played her remaining cards badly
She has zero leadership abilities
The way forward:
I have said it before, if only the EU could cap the backstop at 10 years. This would mean that we get to leave the EU something like 15 years after the vote without a deal in place (we have that right in 2 months). By then, the young will have replaced the old and wanting close ties (even if it means not having deals with the rest of the world) is assured. It may well be too late (given the vote against the deal) for this now but who knows.
At some point, the polarised people and politicians might see that they have to compromise. This is why May continues with her obstinate line.
Discussion on more intricate voting methodology ensued...The correct way to organize the vote is Approval Voting.
Vote for As Many As You Approve Of:
-- No-Deal Brexit
-- May's Deal
-- "Norway Solution"
-- Stay in the EU
Whichever is most popular wins. I bet some people would vote against all of them
Unfortunately they'll probably run the referendum wrong; most politicians do not understand why you need to use approval voting for this sort of thing. (Reason: it gets you the most popular result.)
A few points.
1) Original referendum was stupid simple for a reason
2) Making it more complicated will be seen as elitist
3) Government has stated that a referendum will take a year to carry out. This is obviously wrong but if the question can't be agreed upon...
4) Corbyn has done so poorly, not sure a referendum would change much.
5) Labour got a beating recently in Derby on Television (right in the middle of the UK and not as brexiteering as some). There were cheers for no deal....
6) This has unwittingly turned out to be more about the relationship between the wealth of London and the poor around the rest of the country rather than our relationship with the EU. The poor are hoping to be listened to. They do have a case as Labour were centrist under Blair and the liberal elite have taken over the country narrative recently (which Corbyn is trying to address woefully)
7) Generally UK government is reactive (like most democracies) and planning permission etc. stops small businesses flourishing
May and her deal:
The good:
She is actually on point I believe (blending Brexit with remain as well as anyone could, given the situation as it stands today)
Everyone else is so polarised that it would be difficult to find a replacement that can do much better.
The bad:
She was dealt bad cards
She threw most of her cards away
She has played her remaining cards badly
She has zero leadership abilities
The way forward:
I have said it before, if only the EU could cap the backstop at 10 years. This would mean that we get to leave the EU something like 15 years after the vote without a deal in place (we have that right in 2 months). By then, the young will have replaced the old and wanting close ties (even if it means not having deals with the rest of the world) is assured. It may well be too late (given the vote against the deal) for this now but who knows.
At some point, the polarised people and politicians might see that they have to compromise. This is why May continues with her obstinate line.
cheshire cat
Member
For anyone with a genuine interest in what's afoot, an expansion of my précis from approx 10 ? Days ago, updated a little in the meantime, By someone not considered quite so partisan 
The backstop has backfired - CapX
The backstop has backfired - CapX
Peoples vote have dropped their amendment for a referendum because Corbyn isn't backing it. Momentum building again towards taking the deal but it won't happen without EU throwing us a bone. A chicken wing would do as long it is in the legal text.
The EU will eventually fail, why,? Because the USA is not involved, and I was built to destroy the USA
So it seems that the middle ground is gaining traction. No deal less likely plus referendum leading to no Brexit. My odds:
No deal - 15%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Teresa May deal (increased likelihood with backstop change) - 50%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 10%
No deal - 15%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Teresa May deal (increased likelihood with backstop change) - 50%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 10%
News, sport and opinion from the Guardian's UK edition | The Guardian
Votes on Tuesday.
My update:
No deal - 25%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 15%
Teresa May deal (increased likelihood with backstop change) - 35%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 10%
Corbyn still looking like a not so closet eurosceptic (not backing an amendment to extend Article 50). Other amendments don't look
Votes on Tuesday.
My update:
No deal - 25%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 15%
Teresa May deal (increased likelihood with backstop change) - 35%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 10%
Corbyn still looking like a not so closet eurosceptic (not backing an amendment to extend Article 50). Other amendments don't look
RobStark
Well-Known Member
cheshire cat
Member
You're not far wrong there, follow the bookies for best odds and most likely outcome.
cheshire cat
Member
cheshire cat
Member
Similar threads
