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Brexit

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My update:
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 5%
Teresa May deal (increased likelihood with backstop change) - 50% (Some Germans are pressurising EU to do the deal)
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 20% (Corbyn talking to May)
Remain following referendum - 5% (Referendum has lost some momentum)
 
A lot of momentum behind getting May's deal done - in the UK at least (Mogg & Corbyn indirectly). However, the people are more polarised than ever. The brexiteering public seem to have given up on getting any deal and now favour no deal! The politicians will be hearing this and will likely want to unite against this. This could all change of course at the next round of votes.

My update:
No deal - 15%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 5%
Teresa May deal with legal backstop change - 35%
Teresa May deal with almost no change - 30%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 10%
Remain following referendum - 5% (Referendum has lost some momentum)
 
I collected this set of NOT POETRY some time back; now a bit amended. Am pretty sure all were written by Remainders....

The Brits are a freethinking lot
So when Cameron got into a spot
Of trouble, he said
“Let’s all vote instead:
Are we in the EU, or not?”


The question they posed was quite plain
Should we leave the EU, or remain?
But clear as that seems
With confusion it teems,
So an up-or-down vote was insane.


Brexiteer Nigel Farage
Spewed a nonstop and frightful barrage
Claiming Britain would gain
Voting Leave, not Remain
(But we now see that’s all a mirage).


So the UK voted for Brexit
As angry division infects it
The decision is shocking
And even world-rocking
And the EU? I fear that this wrecks it.


Wales had voted to Leave
A decision that’s hard to believe
They’d have thrived if they stayed,
But the choice has been made
There won’t be a final reprieve.


Since Brexit it’s been emergin’
That the Scots really needed no urgin’
To ditch the UK
And go their own way
Or at least so said Nicola Sturgeon.


Dear England: now the vote’s through
And you’ve chosen to leave the EU
You should know that henceforth
All the Scots to the north
Can’t wait for a chance to leave you.


David Cameron, you were leading Remain
And now you have lost the campaign
But you need to confess
You started this mess
So you don’t have a right to complain.


Labour chief Jeremy Corbyn
Wasn’t quite fully absorbin’
Why his cabinet resigned;
It’s not that they’re blind –
Most of them simply abhor him.


Brexit's now twenty months old
Long since have the fires gone cold
Instead of just basking
The leavers are asking
Hang on — did we just get rolled?
 
A few days ago, Belgian MEP said on BBC Radio 5: "The cost of compromising the integrity of the EU27 single market is greater than the cost of a no deal Brexit. This is what the people across the channel don't understand".
The UK would lose more than the EU for sure. However, I really don't think the EU will risk it when it comes down to it. Also, UK will undoubtedly choose to stay close to the EU (low risk of doing single market compromising trade deals) as long as it feels like a win. The problem so far has been every time we get a deal with the EU, it feels like we lost. This goes back to the deal that Cameron got pre-referendum - Farage was able to prey upon it. Pride gets in the way of much here unfortunately...
Also, party politics will continue to take precedence over Brexit in majority of situations which makes it complicated to predict.
 
I collected this set of NOT POETRY some time back; now a bit amended. Am pretty sure all were written by Remainders....

The Brits are a freethinking lot
So when Cameron got into a spot
Of trouble, he said
“Let’s all vote instead:
Are we in the EU, or not?”


The question they posed was quite plain
Should we leave the EU, or remain?
But clear as that seems
With confusion it teems,
So an up-or-down vote was insane.


Brexiteer Nigel Farage
Spewed a nonstop and frightful barrage
Claiming Britain would gain
Voting Leave, not Remain
(But we now see that’s all a mirage).


So the UK voted for Brexit
As angry division infects it
The decision is shocking
And even world-rocking
And the EU? I fear that this wrecks it.


Wales had voted to Leave
A decision that’s hard to believe
They’d have thrived if they stayed,
But the choice has been made
There won’t be a final reprieve.


Since Brexit it’s been emergin’
That the Scots really needed no urgin’
To ditch the UK
And go their own way
Or at least so said Nicola Sturgeon.


Dear England: now the vote’s through
And you’ve chosen to leave the EU
You should know that henceforth
All the Scots to the north
Can’t wait for a chance to leave you.


David Cameron, you were leading Remain
And now you have lost the campaign
But you need to confess
You started this mess
So you don’t have a right to complain.


Labour chief Jeremy Corbyn
Wasn’t quite fully absorbin’
Why his cabinet resigned;
It’s not that they’re blind –
Most of them simply abhor him.


Brexit's now twenty months old
Long since have the fires gone cold
Instead of just basking
The leavers are asking
Hang on — did we just get rolled?
Thanks for that:rolleyes: As my old dad would have said " it would be funny if it wasn't so tragic". At least he didn't live long enough to witness this shower of sh1te
 
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Mr AudubonB... I doff my cap to you...
Believe me... this is a real disaster...
I think my Avatar shows which side I am on....
After twenty months, the Brexiters have not listed one practical benefit of leaving ... now the Cabinet Minister who promoted Brexit as leading us to “Sunny Uplands” now just states Brexit is ‘survivable’...
A No Deal Brexit isn’t about Leaving Europe it is about leaving the modern world...
 
Believe me... this is a real disaster...

Think it's disaster to all of us. But the EU cannot or should not allow itself to be held hostage into a process where a member state which wishes to leave keeps coming back at (preliminary) agreements. And that with unclear realistic wishes what should be acceptable (at least that is my understanding).

So, for better or worse, i do understand and support the "take it or leave it" (or remain if that is still possible/feasible) approach of the EU.The remaining EU members have plenty of other things to take care of as well. At some point it might seem better to take the bitter pill of divorce and start diverting energy into building a renewed future. Think that might apply to both sides off the channel.
 
Think it's disaster to all of us. But the EU cannot or should not allow itself to be held hostage into a process where a member state which wishes to leave keeps coming back at (preliminary) agreements. And that with unclear realistic wishes what should be acceptable (at least that is my understanding).

So, for better or worse, i do understand and support the "take it or leave it" (or remain if that is still possible/feasible) approach of the EU.The remaining EU members have plenty of other things to take care of as well. At some point it might seem better to take the bitter pill of divorce and start diverting energy into building a renewed future. Think that might apply to both sides off the channel.
Think your right there. The common market was fine but the EU SSR. Weeeeeeell:confused:
 
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Reactions: guidooo
The common market was fine but the EU SSR.

I think many can live with that. At least my personal opinion for decades has been that the EU should set it's primary priority at a deeper level of integration and getting it's fundamentals better on order.

Some centuries ago, a city or diocese or some "noble man" in my country had approximately the same power over it's citizens and relations with neighbouring areas that equals what nation states do today.

If yesterdays feeling of "national" identity was derived from "born in this or that city" and today it's "born in this or that country" and tomorrow it's born on this or that continent, then i view that as some progress made.
 
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Reactions: Brando
Oh dear Tusk - what have you done.... As a reminder, I was a remainer. I was until today hopeful that we would leave and then re-join the EU at a later date, but it will take a while for 52% of the voting population to forget this.

My update:
No deal - 30%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 5%
Teresa May deal with legal backstop change - 35%
Teresa May deal with almost no change - 15%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 10%
Remain following referendum - 5%

The other affect of Tusk, is that I don't see likelihood of progress towards resolution until the wire now. Less chance of delaying Article 50. My prediction for a 10 year sunset clause to the Backstop will no longer fly. MPs will no longer accept being under EU control for that long I fear.
 
I appreciate the regular updates and insights @Buckminster. As a distant outsider, I find the EU experiment (my term) in general interesting (and flawed in important ways), and I also find the whole Brexit idea fascinating. I can make a non-stupid argument for Brexit being brilliant long term, and a non-stupid argument for it being insane over the long term (I really don't know what will happen long term :D).

Either way, it's big changes afoot in the world.

Thanks!
 
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Oh dear Tusk - what have you done.... As a reminder, I was a remainer. I was until today hopeful that we would leave and then re-join the EU at a later date, but it will take a while for 52% of the voting population to forget this.

My update:
No deal - 30%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 5%
Teresa May deal with legal backstop change - 35%
Teresa May deal with almost no change - 15%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 10%
Remain following referendum - 5%

The other affect of Tusk, is that I don't see likelihood of progress towards resolution until the wire now. Less chance of delaying Article 50. My prediction for a 10 year sunset clause to the Backstop will no longer fly. MPs will no longer accept being under EU control for that long I fear.
Oh well at least we will have one friend it seems:)
P.s. Late update it now seems that the "Backstop" infringes EU law, I'm sure Factchecking will help us out here (me? --too bloody lazy) I wonder who knew what and when?
 
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Reactions: Buckminster
Corbyn has got himself into a bit of a pickle.
  1. The EU like his exit deal (close ties with EU unsurprisingly). This is probably not a good thing (particularly post Tusk hell comment) for him with potential voters although it does give him a bit of credibility.
  2. He is getting in trouble with MPs and grass roots for not calling for referendum
  3. He was already facing a split due to anti-semetic position etc.
There has pretty much been zero discussion leading towards an actual position on what the UK should, and will look like, post Brexit (trade deals with the rest of the world and a poor deal with the EU or the other way around). This is fundamentally where the EU negotiation went wrong and why we are still in chaos now.
 
Corbyn has got himself into a bit of a pickle.
  1. The EU like his exit deal (close ties with EU unsurprisingly). This is probably not a good thing (particularly post Tusk hell comment) for him with potential voters although it does give him a bit of credibility.
  2. He is getting in trouble with MPs and grass roots for not calling for referendum
  3. He was already facing a split due to anti-semetic position etc.
There has pretty much been zero discussion leading towards an actual position on what the UK should, and will look like, post Brexit (trade deals with the rest of the world and a poor deal with the EU or the other way around). This is fundamentally where the EU negotiation went wrong and why we are still in chaos now.
Was it Bart Simpsons school chum who used to go"Ha-Ha" ? Always felt it would be a useful addition to the like /dislike love etc' button above