Brexit

[Singer3000]

Thanks to the European Union its members have gone though the longest uninterrupted period in history without a war. So yes, in that sense we have been living in paradise.
Ever since Margret "I want my money back" Thatcher you Brits always wanted special treatment within the EU so you have gotten enough slack. The EU has always bend over backwards and forwards to accommodate you and still it is not good enough. I was saddened to see you go but now I am glad. Europe can now go full steam ahead. I wish you all the best but I think you will be in for some hard times.

I agree with your basic sentiment. There has long been a basic disconnect between the voting public of the UK and that of mainland Europe. The EU was sold for decades in the UK as an economic union. In most other member states it has been more honestly described as a political union first. There are obvious historic and cultural reasons on both sides why this has been the case that do not need to be dwelt upon here. It is interesting that this disparity in perception was still not corrected even in the white heat of the UK's referendum campaign (which in large part is why the vote was relatively close).

I've got no major problem with a Federal EU if executed in the correct way. In fact I think it's the only way to fully solve the structural flaws of the Eurozone. But I think you'd find that this would be a very fringe goal for UK voters. Staying friends and economic partners seems a better outcome for all, than the UK acting as an unwanted brake on European integration.

 

[cheshire cat]

That makes zero sense. Accusing everyone who says Palestinians are also human beings "anti-semetic" isn't going help. We have the same idiotic thing happening on this side of the pond.

As predicted https://order-order.com/

 

[EVNow]

Total nonsense. It is possible to believe that political decision making should be transparent, localised and accountable without being racist (or xenophobic as you try and politely term it). And in fact, what study after study has shown is that a desire for localised decision making was the number 1 motivating factor for Leave voters in 2016. You might hence argue that Brexit's principal cause was the EU's institutional failure to abide by its guiding principle of Subsidiarity.

Oh yes, that is what binds Nigel Farage and Donald Trump.

People always have different reasons to support a particular issue. I'm talking about what animates the "base". That doesn't mean everyone who voted for Brexit or Trump is a nativist - but nativists overwhelmingly voted for Brexit / Trump.

 

[cheshire cat]

Oh yes, that is what binds Nigel Farage and Donald Trump.

People always have different reasons to support a particular issue. I'm talking about what animates the "base". That doesn't mean everyone who voted for Brexit or Trump is a nativist - but nativists overwhelmingly voted for Brexit / Trump.

I recommend a lie down in a darkened room and plenty of cauliflower. This isn' t doing your blood pressure any good

 

[AlexS]

enjoy

 

[Singer3000]

Oh yes, that is what binds Nigel Farage and Donald Trump.

People always have different reasons to support a particular issue. I'm talking about what animates the "base". That doesn't mean everyone who voted for Brexit or Trump is a nativist - but nativists overwhelmingly voted for Brexit / Trump.

In the context of a once in 40-year single issue referendum, I’m not clear what you mean by “the base”. It is a shame that some feel the need to throw labels and ascribe motives to people who disagree with them, just to make sense of the world.

 

[cheshire cat]

enjoy

Sadly (probl'ly not). "This video is not available in your country". Brexit started already ? Just out of interest who is this fella?

 

[AlexS]

Sadly (probl'ly not). "This video is not available in your country". Brexit started already ? Just out of interest who is this fella?

you have to be kidding, if you don't know who is John Oliver

edit: and this is interesting that UK viewer are blocked from viewing this, something is fishy here. I am in EU and can see it.

 

[cheshire cat]

you have to be kidding, if you don't know who is John Oliver

edit: and this is interesting that UK viewer are blocked from viewing this, something is fishy here. I am in EU and can see it.

I kid you not! Apparently he is an English "comedian " google tells me. Well it's news to me however if he's anything like the recent crop of what passes for comedian over here he'll be as funny as herpes, (Sorry age showing thro') Iwonder why it's blocked?

 

[shlokavica22]

Have you stopped to think how many component manufacturing jobs will be lost in Europe? Instead of ranting it may be useful if you could tell us what the Eu gains from the Jap' deal and why it was so quick when it took 7? Years with Canada. Go and do something useful - I'm sure the Canadians would be interested to know. Me - couldn't care less Japan has nothing I want to buy. P.s. Most non scientific academics just selling vapourware. No reason to think this one is any different- l've heard ducks quack before!

Any reasonable person will agree that Brexit will be damaging to both UK & EU. But one side will be in pain more.
It doesn't matter who this Oxford person is and what his motivations are. The reality is- corporations produce different parts in different EU countries.
As we see with TSLA (FC explained that multiple times), running inventory around damages the bottom line. The Auto industry in the EU works with "just on time" processes. That way parts are "idle" as less as possible. ANY delay in this transfer of parts (or added value to it) will make the end product more expensive. The result- products with parts produced in the UK will have a disadvantage vs products fully done in the single market area.
That leaves no choice (to any company with operations in the UK that produces mainly for export) but to move the operations from there. It's not political. It's simply stay in the business, or get disposesed by competitors.

Without taking sides I can understand both sides in the Brexit argument. What's important though, is to understand what is the reality ahead of us. Reality, that was robbed from the UK public by both sides in the argument (one side scaremongering, the other paining cloud castles).

 

[shlokavica22]

Sadly (probl'ly not). "This video is not available in your country". Brexit started already ? Just out of interest who is this fella?

Try putting the link here and it should work for you.

Btw, I was not aware Brexit now has a separate thread. I guess people outside Europe are fed up with this topic, but like it or not it will impact the general macro and as a consequence- TSLA.

 

[Mader Levap]

I see some people really do not like hearing about implications of certain folks tending to vote in certain way on certain issues.

 

[Buckminster]

Labour and Conservatives have lost some MPs but doesn't change much. May in Brussels - Juncker not expecting a breakthrough. Significant chance that Parliament will force a delay next week. Not sure that changes the likelihoods either.

My update:
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 5%
Teresa May deal with legal backstop change - 45%
Teresa May deal with almost no change - 20%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 5%
Remain following referendum - 5%

 

[Buckminster]

The final minute sums up Brexit quite nicely. EU don't think UK will pull the trigger and leave without a deal. UK know they have't got any bullets left but putting on a "I'm crazy show". What will the EU do?

 

[RobStark]

The UK is becoming more Italian everyday, without the good food.

 

[neroden]

Ofcourse, Blairite MPs will like nothing more than Corbyn gone.

The real issue is - there is a lot of anti-Semitism the world over (US/EU/ME). But by accusing anyone and everyone who is opposed to the current Israeli government policies as an anti-Semite, they have weaponized the word for their own political objectives rather than actually try to reduce the problem. Even as Jewish reporters I know continue to get floods of real hate mail daily. Just in the US - while everyone was bullying Omar to apologize for saying AIPAC pays money to get political influence (Republican leader threatened Omar and another Muslim rep on twitter !) - a dozen Republican senators/representatives sent obvious anti-Semitic messages (about Soros) - or because of what Trump said, an unhinged white supremacist gunned down people at a Synagogue.

Lets be clear here - within the Jewish community there is a clear divide on what is and what is not anti-Semitism. Hardliners want to call out anything progressives say about Israel as anti-Semitism, where as liberals do not.

Netenyahu wants to promote worldwide anti-Semitism for the purpose of convincing Jewish people to move to Israel (by making it unsafe for them to be elsewhere). It's a political move which was explicitly documented by earlier memos by earlier Israeli governments. It's pretty sick. It's also not working, because Jewish people who are still in the "diaspora" are mostly very much not interested in moving to an ultra-racist country.

Unfortunately, it *is* spreading both anti-Semitism and racism. The Netenyahu/Likud move is to equate the government of Israel with "Jews" (a false equivalence), and call anyone who criticizes the government of Israel "anti-semitic" (a despicable and dishonest libel)... the result is that people who know what's going on in Israel (the apartheid, the "collective punishments", the land thefts, the army being used to do all of this and murder children), but who don't actually know any Jewish people, *believe* Netenyahu's equivocation of (obviously evil) Israel with Jews. Which spreads anti-Semitism.


This is one of the sickest areas of world geopolitics; not quite as deranged as the situation with Saudi Arabia, but pretty bad.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[neroden]

About right.

The way out of the No Deal situation was for a vote of no confidence to topple May's government. Unfortunately, despite having lost confidence and supply, May is hanging onto a zombie government because the DUP in Northern Ireland (despite opposing May) is propping her up due to fanatical anti-Corbynism. :eyeroll:

Essentially this means the UK has no government. This not only means no deal, but it means that the independence movements for Scotland and Wales just got a lot stronger, and the Irish reunification movement did too. The vast majority of people wants to have a functioning government, and will vote to have one whatever it takes, if there are some elections. May's Tories hate democracy (as does the DUP) so they are avoiding elections.

 

[Buckminster]

About right.

The way out of the No Deal situation was for a vote of no confidence to topple May's government. Unfortunately, despite having lost confidence and supply, May is hanging onto a zombie government because the DUP in Northern Ireland (despite opposing May) is propping her up due to fanatical anti-Corbynism. :eyeroll:

Essentially this means the UK has no government. This not only means no deal, but it means that the independence movements for Scotland and Wales just got a lot stronger, and the Irish reunification movement did too. The vast majority of people wants to have a functioning government, and will vote to have one whatever it takes, if there are some elections. May's Tories hate democracy (as does the DUP) so they are avoiding elections.

I am UK centrist - you make me feel like I am hard right wing! I'm not sure May has lost the DUP - I'm pretty sure May will keep the DUP and Conservatives together if legal changes are made to backstop. However, will they get that far? The new centrist Independent group has not had much impact at all from what I can see.
Wales aren't going anywhere. Scots are pragmatic - doubt they would either. May has already had too many elections....
Anti Corbynism is one of the few things that is uniting the country from what I can see! Half of the Corbyn votes are just anti Tory.
I want to stay In EU - we will have to exit first in order for the country to realise what we had.

 

[bhtooefr]

My understanding is that Scottish independence at this point would entirely be about being able to independently request re-admission to the EU, separate from England?

So, that could be very pragmatic, doing it to maintain EU ties.