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Tories hold 15-point lead over Labour with just days until election
This will translate to a significant majority if true. So how will this all turn out? One possible path:

  • Brexit 31st Jan 2020 with Boris deal
  • EU agree a 5 year trade deal to kick in at the end of 2020
    • Quotas could reduce year on year
    • Boarder checks could increase over the 5 years
    • This would stop a cliff edge but allow Boris to start implementing other trade deals
    • Will EU position themselves in a way that would encourage UK to re-enter the EU?
  • Scots will initially complain but probably save their dry powder for the following election - see how Brexit unfolds
  • Smaller trade deals will kick in 2021
  • Larger deals will be constrained by continued (but reduced) EU alignment
  • UK request that we re-enter EU following election 2024
  • EU demands will be onerous, UK put on the back burner
For me the main consequence of Brexit will be the breakup of the UK. This will, I think, start with Northern Ireland.

NI voted Remain and if, as Corbyn has suggested, border controls between the island of Ireland and England, Wales and Scotland are introduced then post-Brexit a united Ireland will shortly follow. The Good Friday agreement makes provision for a reunification referendum. The RoI would then be effectively merging with NI, an economically disadvantaged country, (much as west Germany did following the end of the Soviet Union) but the EU will likely financially support the new, unified country.

This will leave the enlarged RoI to capitalise on being the primary english speaking territory within the EU. Those parts of the international banking business that have not already departed London for Frankfurt will end up in Dublin.

Once the NI has gone Scotland, which also voted Remain, will almost certainly follow. Even if Westminster has sufficient majority to forbid Scotland from calling another independence referendum the SNP seem likely to gain sufficient power to do so autonomously. The SNP may even find themselves the power brokers as the DUP were post 2017.

Brexit has always been mainly about English nationality. Ireland and Scotland were considered to be the first of the colonial possessions and as such are expendable but finally these too will gain independence.

After five centuries the empire will have been fully dismantled and England will be revealed as a rather small, post industrial country (previously doing rather well out of financial services and Banking), that has just excluded itself from a customs union with its primary market and its closest neighbours.
 
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Tories hold 15-point lead over Labour with just days until election
This will translate to a significant majority if true. So how will this all turn out? One possible path:

  • Brexit 31st Jan 2020 with Boris deal
  • EU agree a 5 year trade deal to kick in at the end of 2020
    • Quotas could reduce year on year
    • Boarder checks could increase over the 5 years
    • This would stop a cliff edge but allow Boris to start implementing other trade deals
    • Will EU position themselves in a way that would encourage UK to re-enter the EU?
  • Scots will initially complain but probably save their dry powder for the following election - see how Brexit unfolds
  • Smaller trade deals will kick in 2021
  • Larger deals will be constrained by continued (but reduced) EU alignment
  • UK request that we re-enter EU following election 2024
  • EU demands will be onerous, UK put on the back burner
What do you mean by "quotas could reduce year on year"? There are currently zero tariffs and quotas. Any trade deal would for sure be on the same basis for goods.

If you really think the UK will apply to rejoin the EU in 2024 having only just left, I'd encourage you to put a bet on it on 01 Feb. There will be almost no appetite from any of the major parties or voters to go back to this question for at least a generation. Evidence, see how poorly the Lib Dems are reportedly set to perform in this election. That's why everything has been thrown into stopping the exit in the first place.
 
Polling starts in one hour. Polls are pretty much all suggesting that Boris will get a healthy majority although less than previous. A push to vote tactically across the leave voters has done well in the past week.

It has become the election of the most disliked leaders. Swinson is favoured even less than Corbyn.

Do you see Trump doing this next year?
 
Exit poll:

The Conservatives are set to win an overall majority of 86 in the general election, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky News.

The survey taken at UK polling stations suggests the Tories will get 368 MPs - 50 more than at the 2017 election - when all the results have been counted.

Labour would get 191, the Lib Dems 13, the Brexit Party none and the SNP 55.

The Green Party will still have one MP and Plaid Cymru will lose one seat for a total of three, the survey suggests.


Pound up 3%.
 
The youth quake would have been in metropolitan areas mostly.

Swinson has lost her seat.

Corbyn to step down.

SNP talking Scexit...

Wow, exit polls are very pro brexit.
I think we would remain in a virgin vote. The increase is more pro democracy than pro Brexit.
What do you mean by "quotas could reduce year on year"? There are currently zero tariffs and quotas. Any trade deal would for sure be on the same basis for goods.

If you really think the UK will apply to rejoin the EU in 2024 having only just left, I'd encourage you to put a bet on it on 01 Feb. There will be almost no appetite from any of the major parties or voters to go back to this question for at least a generation. Evidence, see how poorly the Lib Dems are reportedly set to perform in this election. That's why everything has been thrown into stopping the exit in the first place.
Boris I think will try to find the sweet spot between EU alignment whilst also getting decent deals with Trump etc. The EU won't allow that hence quotas or something else.

Given the strength of the Boris majority, a vote to rejoin EU may take a little longer... I guess it depends on whether people get a taste for chlorinated chicken.
 
I agree. If the referendum result isn't carried by this parliament, it will ultimately be done by the next following an election.

This is actually the trap that Cummings/Johnson are laying, because elections are fought under First Past the Past, which gives them a structural bias compared with a new referendum (most of the Remain vote was piled up in a few areas, Leave was geographically spread). That said, there will be some really odd results at a local level. I know previously ardent Remainers that now want No Deal because they just want it over so there is certainty for their business. I know life long Tories and former (quite senior) Labour members that will either not vote or vote Lib Dem. And then there's the Brexit Party element in Labour's heartlands.

Try polling all of that. Johnson is calculating that when it comes, the Leave vote at the election will be less split than the Remain vote, and that he'll still keep a good amount of his own Remain vote because of the Corbyn SPECTRE.
Bump
 
NI exports - 60% goes to rest of UK
Scottish exports - 80% goes to rest of UK

We will be out of EU in 6 weeks at which point the discussion moves from exiting the UK to exiting UK and rejoining EU. They would have ~10 years on their own to meet the rules and agree membership. 10 years with Tariffs into UK and EU which might make meeting the ever stringent EU rules more tricky. Both countries are net receivers from UK and would presumably also be in the EU - 2 more countries that the Germans (mostly) would need to bail out.

If UK retains permanent alignment with the UK on most products, they have a chance of success, otherwise, how do Scottish Langoustines even get to France without checks and tariffs?

Also, the sky is the limit for Scottish whiskey exports to rest of the world with zero or reduced tariffs - they have the most to gain from leaving the EU. England will always be much more dependent on the continent due to proximity (21 miles).

Don't get me started on Northern Ireland - do people want to see the troubles again (with 10 times the magnitude)?
 
NI exports - 60% goes to rest of UK
Scottish exports - 80% goes to rest of UK

We will be out of EU in 6 weeks at which point the discussion moves from exiting the UK to exiting UK and rejoining EU. They would have ~10 years on their own to meet the rules and agree membership. 10 years with Tariffs into UK and EU which might make meeting the ever stringent EU rules more tricky. Both countries are net receivers from UK and would presumably also be in the EU - 2 more countries that the Germans (mostly) would need to bail out.

If UK retains permanent alignment with the UK on most products, they have a chance of success, otherwise, how do Scottish Langoustines even get to France without checks and tariffs?

Also, the sky is the limit for Scottish whiskey exports to rest of the world with zero or reduced tariffs - they have the most to gain from leaving the EU. England will always be much more dependent on the continent due to proximity (21 miles).

Don't get me started on Northern Ireland - do people want to see the troubles again (with 10 times the magnitude)?

With Brexit economic reality has long taken second place to (English) national identity. Why wouldn't it be the same for the Scots? And national identity was crucial for the Irish in 1922 and in the long run Irish independence has paid off, see the link below.

Of course, as long as the independence argument is current the SNP are occupying seats that in former times were Labour held. In other words it is in the Tories interest to continue to block Scottish independence. But Scotland now has 48 SNP MPs and it could administer a second (if illegal) independence poll. If the SNP choose their moment correctly, say the time of the reintroduction of customs posts into the UK & the EU, they'll walk it.


Regarding Northern Ireland. You predict a return to the troubles because of reunification? (I can see why you've decided not to talk about NI.) The Good Friday Agreement requires, one way or another, an open border between NI and the RoI. This was how the troubles were ended in 1998.

Following this latest election there is no longer a Unionist majority in NI. And now that the DUP are no longer power brokers for the Conservatives, Boris could well decide he's better off without NI. The NI economy, which is currently supported by the UK taxpayer, would instead becomes dependent on the Republic of Ireland, which BTW, has the 5th best economy in the world by purchasing power parity.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia behind Quatar, Macau, Luxemburg and Singapore.

NI would have to wait 10 years to join the EU...why? NI would reunify with an existing member of the EU, the RoI. (as east and west Germany did in 1990.)
 
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With Brexit economic reality has long taken second place to (English) national identity. Why wouldn't it be the same for the Scots? And national identity was crucial for the Irish in 1922 and in the long run Irish independence has paid off, see the link below.

Of course, as long as the independence argument is current the SNP are occupying seats that in former times were Labour held. In other words it is in the Tories interest to continue to block Scottish independence. But Scotland now has 48 SNP MPs and it could administer a second (if illegal) independence poll. If the SNP choose their moment correctly, say the time of the reintroduction of customs posts into the UK & the EU, they'll walk it.


Regarding Northern Ireland. You predict a return to the troubles because of reunification? (I can see why you've decided not to talk about NI.) The Good Friday Agreement requires, one way or another, an open border between NI and the RoI. This was how the troubles were ended in 1998.

Following this latest election there is no longer a Unionist majority in NI. And now that the DUP are no longer power brokers for the Conservatives, Boris could well decide he's better off without NI. The NI economy, which is currently supported by the UK taxpayer, would instead becomes dependent on the Republic of Ireland, which BTW, has the 5th best economy in the world by purchasing power parity.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia behind Quatar, Macau, Luxemburg and Singapore.

NI would have to wait 10 years to join the EU...why? NI would reunify with an existing member of the EU, the RoI. (as east and west Germany did in 1990.)

Loyalists also did the bombing:
Ulster loyalism is a political ideology found primarily among Ulster Protestants in Northern Ireland (and to a lesser extent Scotland) who maintain a strong desire to remain part of the United Kingdom. Many Ulster Protestants are descendants of settlers from Great Britain in the 17th and 18th centuries. Like most unionists, loyalists are attached to the British monarchy, support the continued existence of Northern Ireland, and oppose a united Ireland. Ulster loyalism has been described as a kind of ethnic nationalism and "a variation of British nationalism".[1][2] It is strongly associated with paramilitarism

Boris will lose support if he allows NI to leave - his party is called the "Conservative and Unionist Party".

Leaving the UK is a bigger deal than leaving the EU - hundreds of years of tentacles to unpick. UK kept it's own laws to mirror the EU laws (France did not - they just adopt EU law). Perhaps it is possible to go straight into the EU but I don't see it.
 
How quickly can Northern Ireland join the EU?
Rather quickly according to Wikipedia. United Ireland - Wikipedia

The Brexit Secretary, David Davis, confirmed to Mark Durkan, the SDLP MP for Foyle, that in the event of Northern Ireland becoming part of a united Ireland, "Northern Ireland would be in a position of becoming part of an existing EU member state, rather than seeking to join the EU as a new independent state."[38] Enda Kenny pointed to the provisions that allowed East Germany to join the West and the EEC during the reunification of Germany as a precedent.[9] In April 2017 the European Council acknowledged that, in the event of Irish unification, "the entire territory of such a united Ireland would [...] be part of the European Union."[39] The SDLP manifesto for the 2017 UK general election called for a referendum on a united Ireland after the UK withdraws from the EU.[40]
 
Tories hold 15-point lead over Labour with just days until election
This will translate to a significant majority if true. So how will this all turn out? One possible path:

  • Brexit 31st Jan 2020 with Boris deal
  • EU agree a 5 year trade deal to kick in at the end of 2020
    • Quotas could reduce year on year
    • Boarder checks could increase over the 5 years
    • This would stop a cliff edge but allow Boris to start implementing other trade deals
    • Will EU position themselves in a way that would encourage UK to re-enter the EU?
  • Scots will initially complain but probably save their dry powder for the following election - see how Brexit unfolds
  • Smaller trade deals will kick in 2021
  • Larger deals will be constrained by continued (but reduced) EU alignment
  • UK request that we re-enter EU following election 2024
  • EU demands will be onerous, UK put on the back burner
Things going according to the above so far. Boris has confirmed Jan exit plus no extension beyond 2020. Some ministers confirming that the EU trade deal will be easy. I'm not so sure. London City and EU think that the big majority will mean Boris doesn't have to worry about the hard Brexiteers which means EU alignment. I think he continue on plan - cake and eat it. This will mean compromises on any US deal as well as the EU deal.

The Scots are complaining but I detect defeat in their voices. They have a solid chance but don't want to blow it too soon given that upheavals over the next 2 years already baked in. Boris intends to hold onto his new northern constituencies by building them stuff. He may intend to send this message to Scotland - support me and look at all the sparkly things you could get next time around.

English remainers have capitulated. Again, if they bide their time and Boris' plan leads to poverty, re-entry will be unstoppable. However, I expect Boris' plan to be seen as a success. House building share prices were up 14% on Friday.