RobStark
Well-Known Member
IF SNP were Kingmakers they would king the Labour Leader.
All Labour has to do is not get slaughtered South of the Wall.
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Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
IF SNP were Kingmakers they would king the Labour Leader.
All Labour has to do is not get slaughtered South of the Wall.
Singer3000
Member
This is a misreading. If Scotland and it’s 59 seats had left the union, Cameron would have held a majority in 2010 and May in 2017. In 2005 Blair would only have managed a hung parliament.
In naked electoral maths terms it’s in the Tory party’s interests for Scotland to go independent. But it’s against the party’s historic tradition.
In Brexit Britain, formerly known as the UK, national identity trumps economics. And national identity manifests itself as taking back control from Europe in England and independence from Westminster in Scotland.
The Conservatives got 365 seats and Labour and the SNP together got 251. Not much room for kingmaking.
The tories can claim to be preserving the Union by blocking another independence vote north of the border. It still denies the Labour party those former Scottish seats without disturbing the grouse shooting and the Royal estates.
The Conservatives got 365 seats and Labour and the SNP together got 251. Not much room for kingmaking.
The tories can claim to be preserving the Union by blocking another independence vote north of the border. It still denies the Labour party those former Scottish seats without disturbing the grouse shooting and the Royal estates.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Correct you can't govern in Westminster if you can't approach 45% of English seats.
Labour needed to win 75 more seats of 533 in England to govern with SNP.
This will be the case in 2024 as well. Labour + SNP = 326 equals a non Tory government.
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bhtooefr
Active Member
Of course, what would stop SNP from running candidates in English seats?
Especially in strongly-remain seats, if they ran on a platform of, say, giving Scottish passports to Brexit refugees who wanted back into the EU?
Especially in strongly-remain seats, if they ran on a platform of, say, giving Scottish passports to Brexit refugees who wanted back into the EU?
Even with better numbers a deal with the SNP would not have been guaranteed. Jeremy Corbyn contrived to make Labour's position on Scottish Independence as ambiguous as their position on EU membership. Corbyn never categorically stated he favoured EU membership and a number of Labour's manifesto proposals are incompatible with it.
Boris, on the other hand, was quite clear on the Conservative position. Even if more than half the population were against Brexit Labour couldn't bring itself to unambiguously invite them to vote Labour.
Too scared of alienating traditional Labour support to actively promote Remain Labour is then shocked when those same traditional voters abandon them. Yet, one only needs to see the working class support for Trump in his rallies to see that with the right message the British Tories could have the same.
Boris, on the other hand, was quite clear on the Conservative position. Even if more than half the population were against Brexit Labour couldn't bring itself to unambiguously invite them to vote Labour.
Too scared of alienating traditional Labour support to actively promote Remain Labour is then shocked when those same traditional voters abandon them. Yet, one only needs to see the working class support for Trump in his rallies to see that with the right message the British Tories could have the same.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The question now is - will there be a second referendum - on Scottish Independence ?
SNP manifesto says they want a 2nd referendum in 2020.
Also, will there be a referendum in Northern Ireland ? IIRC, Good Friday agreement allows for a referendum.
SNP manifesto says they want a 2nd referendum in 2020.
Also, will there be a referendum in Northern Ireland ? IIRC, Good Friday agreement allows for a referendum.
Scottish Independence...Boris and his chums will not be in a hurry to grant the Scots a second referendum on independence. (See earlier posts) However, that's not to say the Scots couldn't run one themselves, perhaps using some secure scheme on-line scheme to permit people to vote. If the participation level was high enough a convincing Leave result would be hard to argue against. And they could truthfully claim that the post-Brexit Britain was a very different land to the Britain of the earlier vote. And perhaps the EU could fast track a part of a former member nation back in.
Northern Ireland...the implementation of the Good Friday agreement was only possible because both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland were/are part of the same European Union customs union.
The advocates of Brexit always ignored the GFA during the campaign despite the fact it is as
This was the issue that gave Theresa May such trouble and why the only viable solution seems to require Northern Ireland to remain part of the EU customs union while the rest of the UK leaves it. Because she'd been forced, because of the 2017 election result, to turn the headbangers of the DUP into power brokers she was unable to garner enough votes to get this through parliament. The DUP insisted on having the same status as the rest of the UK, - outside the EU customs union.
What happens next depends. Should Boris and Co decide that the whole of the UK should stay in the European customs union most of the problem goes away. (He could perhaps do this because another influential bloc within the Conservative party, the ERG is now diminished in influence). Without a restored border between NI and the RoI the citizens could then retain full freedom of movement. It's difficult to see how even the DUP could argue with that, not that they hold the balance of power anymore.
But that means the whole of the UK must maintain regulatory alignment with the EU. This means that a trade deal with the USA, which has very different standards regarding food hygiene etc would not be possible.
So this is why, I think, Boris will eventually decide it's easier just to get rid of Northern Ireland. NI is a financial drain on the UK and any remaining sectarian problems then become harder to blame on Westminster. The whole situation becomes a problem for the Republic of Ireland and the EU. In Boris terms a perfect solution.
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'Extremely challenging' timetable for UK trade deal, warns European Commission president
EU making threats yet again - when will they learn? - it just drives us apart at a time when we should be looking to maintain a close relationship. The alternative is a close relationship with the impeached Trump - does the EU want that?
Boris' priorities are:
1) Be the next Churchill - loved by the people for being decisive. He needs real improvements over a 9 year period to achieve this. NHS money etc. He is off to a great start. Londoners and the media hating him only convinces the remainder that he is on the right track...
2) Exit EU on time
3) Exit with close EU deal
4) Decent trade deals with rest of the world
3 and 4 are incompatible - it is the EUs to lose. Boris has sufficient strength to pull off either 3 or 4 (Brexiteers won't be happy with 3). If EU don't give a little now, Boris will need to prioritise 4 in order to maintain the more important 1 and 2. He is playing the same game as before - he is prepared to exit without a deal knowing that it is a ~20% risk. It is only the 20% risk if he really means it. Creating a food shortage only plays into his Churchillian fantasy that might actually play well for him.
Queen's speech today.
Scottish and NI independence not in the news - English not interested.
EU making threats yet again - when will they learn? - it just drives us apart at a time when we should be looking to maintain a close relationship. The alternative is a close relationship with the impeached Trump - does the EU want that?
Boris' priorities are:
1) Be the next Churchill - loved by the people for being decisive. He needs real improvements over a 9 year period to achieve this. NHS money etc. He is off to a great start. Londoners and the media hating him only convinces the remainder that he is on the right track...
2) Exit EU on time
3) Exit with close EU deal
4) Decent trade deals with rest of the world
3 and 4 are incompatible - it is the EUs to lose. Boris has sufficient strength to pull off either 3 or 4 (Brexiteers won't be happy with 3). If EU don't give a little now, Boris will need to prioritise 4 in order to maintain the more important 1 and 2. He is playing the same game as before - he is prepared to exit without a deal knowing that it is a ~20% risk. It is only the 20% risk if he really means it. Creating a food shortage only plays into his Churchillian fantasy that might actually play well for him.
Queen's speech today.
Scottish and NI independence not in the news - English not interested.
Brexit boost: Boris Johnson pledges ‘no alignment on EU rules’ with Brussels after exit
This is big news. I was wrong two posts above - it seems that Boris isn't going bother trying to a find the non-existent Goldilocks zone of 50% EU rules alignment whilst being able to get good deals elsewhere. Instead, he is looking to put trade with the rest of the world as number 1 priority. The benefit being that given that he has a year to do the deal, he gives the EU enough time to face up to a hard brexit and actually get a deal done. He doesn't have time to string them along. He will be hoping that he gets a better deal because the EU will have no choice. Hence the reducing quotas and/or increasing tariffs over a ~10 year period that I previously mentioned. The end point being hopefully something a fair bit better that WTO - otherwise the Irish border will be a smugglers paradise. That gives a UK auto parts supplier 10 years to find business elsewhere and Mercedes 10 years to ramp-up another supplier.
I was one of the few that wanted the Theresa May deal - the EU and UK remainers have all made a big mistake in not supporting her more.
Even though I would remain in a heartbeat (if democratically achieved), I am also an optimist. It's a big world out there - exciting times as usual in Brexit world.
The alternative to all of this is that Boris is bluffing. Maybe align with some 3rd party rules that are equivalent to EU rules?
This is big news. I was wrong two posts above - it seems that Boris isn't going bother trying to a find the non-existent Goldilocks zone of 50% EU rules alignment whilst being able to get good deals elsewhere. Instead, he is looking to put trade with the rest of the world as number 1 priority. The benefit being that given that he has a year to do the deal, he gives the EU enough time to face up to a hard brexit and actually get a deal done. He doesn't have time to string them along. He will be hoping that he gets a better deal because the EU will have no choice. Hence the reducing quotas and/or increasing tariffs over a ~10 year period that I previously mentioned. The end point being hopefully something a fair bit better that WTO - otherwise the Irish border will be a smugglers paradise. That gives a UK auto parts supplier 10 years to find business elsewhere and Mercedes 10 years to ramp-up another supplier.
I was one of the few that wanted the Theresa May deal - the EU and UK remainers have all made a big mistake in not supporting her more.
Even though I would remain in a heartbeat (if democratically achieved), I am also an optimist. It's a big world out there - exciting times as usual in Brexit world.
The alternative to all of this is that Boris is bluffing. Maybe align with some 3rd party rules that are equivalent to EU rules?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
After Brexit the European Union will have a population of 445M
The Anglosphere will have a population of 461M
The Anglosphere will have a population of 461M
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Whereas the Anglosphere economy will be slightly larger than the EU, China's economy is 5x that of India.
Britain will remain a dominant global economy after Brexit, new analysis suggests | Daily Mail Online
Couldn't find the report. Interesting regarding Anglosphere.
Reports like this will provide Boris with the conviction to lean away from EU regulation.
Couldn't find the report. Interesting regarding Anglosphere.
Reports like this will provide Boris with the conviction to lean away from EU regulation.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
US UK Canada Australia and New Zealand.
No customs union and no regulatory system. Each country is free.
Its existence has been proven twice in the last 100 years.
Marching down to the Brandenburg Gate.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
YoungStranger
Member
And of course the angoshere doesn’t count anglophone countries like India, South Africa etc. Unadulterated racist mush to feed the Nativist patsies... It pains me that I and my family have given up tangible freedoms for idiocy like this.
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