Brexit

[Jetex Jim]

Government 'actively looking into' Scotland-Northern Ireland bridge

Good old Boris. This sounds like a fine scheme. And there's a fair chance the EU will foot the bill, as both Scotland and NI will certainly be members of the EU again by the time the engineers figure out how to bridge waters 900ft deep containing 75 year old dumped explosives.

 

[Buckminster]

So apparently the EU will hand us a trade deal if we give them our fish and our Elgin Marbles. If that is all it takes we should bite their hand off. Neither are that special...

Unfortunately however, my compatriots will be riled by these threats and will dig in. Already the mood is get trade deals with the rest of the world at the expense of the EU deal. The number of times I have stated in this thread that the EU will not learn the lessons on how to treat the crazy brits....

 

[Buckminster]

46 pages of requirements that the trade deal needs to meet:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st05870-ad01re03-en20.pdf

We are walking away in June if the deal isn't outlined - nothing to see here. What could possibly go wrong.

 

[Buckminster]

No news really. Michel Barnier has Coronavirus. Boris has restated that we will not extend the transition. Trade deal negotiators don't know how to use remote working technology - usual negotiations on hold.

This feels like it is playing into the UK's hands - EU will want a deal even more with the COVID crisis and there isn't enough time to not compromise.

 

[Buckminster]

The Brits will be well prepared for Brexit. Nothing on the shelves before Brexit - nothing after...

 

[EVNow]

This feels like it is playing into the UK's hands - EU will want a deal even more with the COVID crisis and there isn't enough time to not compromise.

Why is that ? Serious question.

 

[Buckminster]

Why is that ? Serious question.

Germany is likely going to into recession causing increased unemployment - affected massively by loss of exports. I think there will be a public backlash if the German government worsen the situation.

On the other hand, the UK have gone into wartime mode. We all went clapped for the NHS out of our windows last night... Boris will fear a public backlash for delaying Brexit. For many Brits, C19 and Brexit will merge into each other - just a reason to panic buy and get on with it. C19 may assist the UK in getting trade deals outside the eu in record time as countries try to dig themselves out of recession and offer hope for the future. We are easy to do a deal with as we don't manufacture anything of note that can undercut our partners.

Germans are sensible, many brits - not so much. Our unofficial national motto:

Keep Calm and Carry On - Wikipedia

 

[RobStark]

Boris Johnson test positive for COVID-19

UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson tests positive for Covid-19

 

[EVNow]

We are easy to do a deal with as we don't manufacture anything of note that can undercut our partners.

I think the basic issue would be financial services. For eg. I don't see how India would cut any kind of sweet deal with UK compared to what they are willing to offer EU. In other words, though UK has a lower barrier now for imports, it also has a smaller market. More importantly, Indian financial sector would lobby to make sure they won't face any competition from London ….

Ofcourse, who has the time now to negotiate ?

 

[EVNow]

Of all Brexit possibilities - nobody could have imagined Boris Johnson in ICU in April.

 

[Buckminster]

Boris out of ICU.

US/UK trade deal discussions reportedly on ice.

EU have agreed a 500Bn Euro package - relationships are strained. Will this friction help Brexit talks? Not sure that any country's politicians will want to have this argument anymore - it could pull the EU apart.

I expect UK to leave EU at the end of the year with a pretty basic deal.

Elon has savaged the UK for going ahead with HS2:
Elon Musk on Twitter
HS2 may well be reviewed again post COVID. Arguably, it is now really questionable that rail will ever get back to same usage pre COVID. I wrote a piece about WFH here:
HS2 will create a lot of jobs however, which may be the medicine needed. Better than propping up hedge funds and billionaires as Chamath discusses here:

 

[guidooo]

I expect UK to leave EU at the end of the year with a pretty basic deal.

Didn't brexit already happen earlier this year?

 

[Buckminster]

Didn't brexit already happen earlier this year?

Brexit formally is done yes. But arguably the trade deal to come is far more important for all concerned. UK could be buying American cheese in a year or Gouda, or both. How the NI border looks is dependant on this. How ROI is connected to the continent is as well.

If the UK can manage to get reasonable deals with EU and US, the world will open up. If we don't get either, protectionism will cast a shadow over the whole world's economy.

 

[RobStark]

Brexit formally is done yes. But arguably the trade deal to come is far more important for all concerned. UK could be buying American cheese in a year or Gouda, or both. How the NI border looks is dependant on this. How ROI is connected to the continent is as well.

If the UK can manage to get reasonable deals with EU and US, the world will open up. If we don't get either, protectionism will cast a shadow over the whole world's economy.

Or God forbid, American Gouda!

Yancey's is quite good actually.


BTW I quite like British Coastal Cheddar. Can't find at local Costco any longer.

 

[markharro]

I think people in Britain (yes even in England) are going to finally wake up to the reality of how they were mis-sold brexit and abandon the whole debacle by the end of the year. I know that technically the UK has left the EU but that nothing will change unless some sort of deal is struck on the detail this year or whenever. This current crisis is going to bankrupt nations and the UK will surely be one of the hardest hit (along with the US) due to the cavalier attitude of its leaders in recognising the danger (coupled with criminally negligent pandemic planning). It's hard to see the current administration surviving beyond the immediate short term given that it's finally becoming obvious (even to the most deluded Boris fan I suggest) that - lack of investment in the NHS; disproportionate fatalites in the service among "immigrant" nurses and doctors; and tens of billions wasted to date on a right wing project that would only make the poor poorer and the Rees-Moggs of this world richer - have combined to leverage the storm we are presently in. Why anyone would want to make our current economic woes worse by continuing to pursue brexit when the country is in existential crisis is beyond me. Even before Covid it would have been like chopping off one of the country's legs. Now the whole idea is ludicrous and its shameful that we are devoting any government resources to continuing negotiations on brexit when 100% of our resources are needed to try to best navigate out of this terrible pandemic.

 

[guidooo]

Oh yeah... That trade thing slipped my mind. Guess that could be sorted out one way or the other. When the people thing and the border thing and the other forgotten things are sorted out as well.

But maybe better not to buy the Gouda cheese. In general I don't consider dutch animal farming good for the environment and the welfare of the animals involved. Well, at least we can eat tulips if a crisis hits, no need to continue flying them around a world under threat of a changing climate.

 

[adiggs]

Or God forbid, American Gouda!

View attachment 531376

Yancey's is quite good actually.


BTW I quite like British Coastal Cheddar. Can't find at local Costco any longer.

View attachment 531377

What you want is Tillamook Aged White Cheddar. At least here in Oregon, that's readily available at Costco. Aged 3 years - OMG good.

 

[RobStark]

What you want is Tillamook Aged White Cheddar. At least here in Oregon, that's readily available at Costco. Aged 3 years - OMG good.

Tried it today. Good. As far as American style cheddars.

But Coastal is more full bodied.

BTW Slightly less off topic

Alex Salmond's 2013 White Paper on Independent Scotland's Norwegian style welfare state projected and depended on Brent Price of $100/barrel.

 

[adiggs]

Alex Salmond's 2013 White Paper on Independent Scotland's Norwegian style welfare state projected and depended on Brent Price of $100/barrel.

Oops. Gonna need a new funding source for that.

 

[Buckminster]

'Disappointing' progress in UK-EU trade talks
Bojo won't give in. Barnier will get new instructions in around September following little progress. Ireland may have to relax their expectations because they will be worse off than UK.