Does someone from one of the HP or physics threads want to make a guess on what battery size a Model 3 would need to have the equivalent of P100D Model S acceleration? My broad brush swag is 80 kWh.
There will certainly be improvements in Power Electronics, Traction/Stability Control, and Battery Chemistry, along with the rumored changes in Battery Configuration. My guess is that Tesla Motors will pick...
'a number'... That is, a particular time lapse to reach 60 MPH or complete a 1/4 mile... Then engineer the car to achieve that reliably and safely.
I believe that the measuring stick will be the Competition, not the Model S or Model X. Thus, they will look at the aggregate data for the fastest/quickest non-performance variants of 3-Series, A4, ATS, C-Class, IS, TLX, Q50/Q60, and XE, then aim to beat those with the base version of Model ☰. All/Most of them offer a version with 300+ HP for under $50,000 and some under $40,000... Then, they'll set their sites on competitors' most prized
'hero' cars with the Model ☰ Performance version.
I was wondering about something along these lines. I have no idea what the answer to your question is. I'm curious, though, where Tesla might eventually draw the line. How fast is too fast for modern roads?
Here the thing is... Thus far, every single Tesla Motors product that can achieve 0-60 MPH in less than four seconds is also renowned for the absolute ease by which they can also be driven... SLOWLY. You control the level of quickness by which you accelerate with your right foot. And that control is instantaneous, responsive, and fully manageable. It isn't like dealing why my Uncle George's Chevrolet El Camino SS while navigating a gravel topped levee with a cowl induction, carbureted motor tied to unresponsive accelerator and a nautical steering wheel when I was twelve. In an electric vehicle you can drive 0-60 MPH in 38 seconds, if you want to. Just like in a circa 1963 Volkswagen Beetle.
The P90DL Model S goes 0-60 in 2.8 seconds. Imagine a 20% smaller by volume Model 3 with the same performance enhancements, or even the next step beyond that in Tesla's future battery technology. Considering performance is a function of battery power, it's conceivable that acceleration will continue to improve with battery technology and thus only be limited by Tesla's choices in safety. So where do they stop?
Motorcycles that cost a whole lot less have been just as quick and quicker for over 25 years. Those guys are exposed to the elements. So they are advised to wear helmets, pads, and leathers. Someone in a Model ☰ is not exactly going to be wrapped in a tissue paper cocoon. Given what we have seen of the Model S, it will typically take a very, very, very STUPID act of wanton disregard for life, limb, and property for someone to manage to kill themselves.
Honestly, I was absolutely flabbergasted by what Tesla Motors was able to accomplish with the Model S P85D with just Insane mode. The automotive industry is not used to being offered Supercar levels of Performance at such an attainable price point. They had better get used to it though, because let's face it... The Model S is probably going to be the worst car that Tesla makes. When the Model S P85D was introduced, Elon Musk used the word
'magnitude'. That still resonates in my soul when I think of what Tesla Motors may achieve in the future. Model ☰ will move the company beyond the
'Proof of Concept' phase for good, and force others to accept the reality, and adjust, or watch their sales evaporate.
Not sure on what it doable, but I suspect there's a hard safety limit somewhere around 1.5 seconds. At that point the car is hitting around 2G's of acceleration, so any loose items become dangerous and you may start to enter the area where there is a risk of whiplash for unsuspecting passengers.
I believe the
'hard safety limit' is the point where racing experts and lawyers would agree five point seatbelts, roll cage, fire extinguisher system, flame resistant clothing, and helmets were a necessity. That will be reserved for Maximum Plaid, possibly geofenced to only be allowed on known raceways for legal reasons and stuff. But really, if the cars aren't doing a 1/4 mile in under six seconds, you'll be fine in your golf shorts and a tank top while wearing flip-flops. Sport, Insane, and Ludicrous levels probably won't approach that level of Performance even with the Model ☰. But... Nine second runs will be fun!
If you're expecting that for cars reserved in March or April of 2016, I think you'll be disappointed. While I'd like to buy such a thing as well, I don't think we'll see that delivered by 2020 if at all.
Yeah... It may well be 2020 or so before all of Tesla Motors' product line is able to conquer the Autobahn with sustained runs above 300 kph, or demolish Nürburgring times in all classes... But it is not beyond the realm of possibility that there will be AUDI S4, BMW M3, Cadillac ATS-V, Lexus IS F Sport, and Mercedes-AMG C-Class vehicles available for purchase during 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020... Thus, it is an absolute certainty that there will be Performance variants of Tesla Model ☰ during all those years as well. Tesla Motors will not concede any ground to their direct competitors.
