Buy a Tesla while you can!

[Artiste]

Tesla will stop selling cars once full self-driving is solved, says Elon Musk [Updated: Musk clarifies] - Electrek

 

[ACarneiro]

I suspect we've still got quite a fair amount of time, then...

 

[interbear]

PR pipe dream that is years off yet in my opinion. I don’t see regulatory authorities supporting fully autonomous self driving any time soon. It all helps Musk continue to raise his profile as an innovative thought-leader though. And if it does come to pass, the recurring revenue generation model will certainly positively impact the company share price. So I understand the logic but remain sceptical.

 

[elecTED]

Tesla will stop selling cars once full self-driving is solved, says Elon Musk [Updated: Musk clarifies] - Electrek

What is the logic behind that?
Tesla isn't interested in building 'full self-driving' cars?

"Buy a Tesla while you can!" - yes, be quick, very quick, you only have another 20 years or so...

 

[Jason71]

Would anyone like to hazard a guess at how long it will be before a vehicle, any vehicle, is technologically and legally capable of traversing all of the UK's road network in all weather conditions, which is surely the bench mark for "full" self driving? I think it's still 10-15 years away in non optimal conditions.
Mind you that's still better than humans there are quite a lot of us who will NEVER get there

 

[Jason71]

What is the logic behind that?
Tesla isn't interested in building 'full self-driving' cars?

"Buy a Tesla while you can!" - yes, be quick, very quick, you only have another 20 years or so...

They want to build them. Just not sell them apparently. Just send them out the factory door straight onto the FSD Tesla network to make money as robo taxi's. Selling them so others could proffit would just be generating competition. That is the supposed "logic"

 

[Rob R]

What is the logic behind that?
Tesla isn't interested in building 'full self-driving' cars?

"Buy a Tesla while you can!" - yes, be quick, very quick, you only have another 20 years or so...

It will build them, it just won't sell them. Because it can make much more money using them as robotaxis. So Elon says. Expect Elon to be living on Mars before this happens.

 

[Peteski]

Would anyone like to hazard a guess at how long it will be before a vehicle, any vehicle, is technologically and legally capable of traversing all of the UK's road network in all weather conditions, which is surely the bench mark for "full" self driving? I think it's still 10-15 years away in non optimal conditions.
Mind you that's still better than humans there are quite a lot of us who will NEVER get there

Yeah, I think an absolute minimum of 10 years, but while human drivers are still allowed on our roads I don't see fully autonomous driverless cars being able to successfully mingle with them. There are way too many variables involved and our road infrastructure is definitely not up to the kind of standard required.

Anyone who seriously thinks their M3 bought today will be able to generate revenue as a robo-taxi in a few time I suspect will be very disappointed!

 

[WannabeOwner]

Would anyone like to hazard a guess at how long it will be before a vehicle, any vehicle, is technologically and legally capable of traversing all of the UK's road network in all weather conditions, which is surely the bench mark for "full" self driving?

No idea, but the "drive across America test" I think will be achieved soon.

Expect Elon to be living on Mars before this happens.

I liked his quote: "I'd like to die on Mars, but not on impact" !

 

[pgkevet]

Would anyone like to hazard a guess at how long it will be before a vehicle, any vehicle, is technologically and legally capable of traversing all of the UK's road network in all weather conditions, which is surely the bench mark for "full" self driving? I think it's still 10-15 years away in non optimal conditions.
Mind you that's still better than humans there are quite a lot of us who will NEVER get there

I'd like to see that where I live - single track roads with occasional muddy bits in the hedgerows as passing places and occasional long reverses to a farm gate when large kit comes the other way. Even better in winter on the hills. Last bad winter one of the snowploughs lost his way and snow-ploughed across a field instead of the road. I was scraping doorhandles on the 4x4 between walls of snow that year.

I think for genuine level 5 automation in all A roads (forget the B's etc) it's still more than a decade away with additonal cameras a radars

 

[Yev000]

Not sure they will do this. By the time FSD will be good enough (10+years) there will be 5 million teslas capable of being robo taxis on the road.

I'm not economy expect, but I recon that all those cars transitioning to taxis will lower the price of the fare quite a bit.

Also I cant imagine people making their roadsters a taxi.

And honestly, they need to make specific cars without steering wheels for this.

Maybe people would buy more of a "family car" that goes home after commute.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I'd like to see that where I live - single track roads with occasional muddy bits in the hedgerows as passing places and occasional long reverses to a farm gate when large kit comes the other way.

I had an AP 2.5 loaner a little while back. My country lane is wide enough for two cars to pass, but has no white paint ... except for diving-line on just one bend. I managed to get AP to turn on there in the loaner and it then made a very passable job of driving the completely unmarked road - I chickened out when I encountered oncoming traffic

 

[MrBadger]

I'd like to see that where I live - single track roads with occasional muddy bits in the hedgerows as passing places and occasional long reverses to a farm gate when large kit comes the other way. Even better in winter on the hills. Last bad winter one of the snowploughs lost his way and snow-ploughed across a field instead of the road. I was scraping doorhandles on the 4x4 between walls of snow that year.

I think for genuine level 5 automation in all A roads (forget the B's etc) it's still more than a decade away with additonal cameras a radars

One of the things with watching Autopilot videos is that they can both amaze me and scare me at the same time. I stumbled across

on another thread this morning. The comparison between AP2.5 and AP3 and some of the commentary has been dismissed in the thread, but the video is interesting, especially since it compares the same really minor road, first at night (reassuring comment about how good the Model 3 lights are as on our family VW that M3 will be replacing they are absolutely shocking) then at day. I would be interesting to see how much cameras can see within non visible spectrum.

Amazing how autopilot can cope so well with something so far out of its official comfort zone, but a few 'little' things, like drifting left, spoil the show. I feel that it will achieve 80/20 in a reasonable amount of time (quite a few years but we are in this for the long haul), which is why I ordered FSD.

I once heard that in Australia, there were 10,000 laws that would need to be repealed to allow true autonomy. Technology 'perfection' (car is safer than human driver in all normal situations) and legislation will converge, but it will take much time, so I think me being able to buy a second new Tesla in 15 years time will still be an option.

 

[MrBadger]

The transportation industry has long thought that the current model of personal car ownership will no longer be the norm. Other mobility choices will make car ownership largely redundant. It will be far more economic and often convenient, to utilise other mobility options than tie up large amounts of money on an object that spends most of its time parked up.

I think that is where this story is heading. As car ownership becomes less necessary due to alternatives, the economics will favor the few. There is a much bigger picture involved here.

 

[Yev000]

Other mobility choices will make car ownership largely redundant.

That same argument could be made about owning a house vs renting.

There is a lot of value with having a known car being available at a moments notice.

Even if you have a taxi on call and patiently waiting for you at 8:33 exactly as you walk out of the door for your school run. With your child's favorite seat and a brolly in the boot just in case. You still cant be sure someone wasn't in it shooting up 4 hours prior on the way home from an all nighter.

Car prices might go up, but I doubt car ownership will go away.

 

[Peteski]

Amazing how autopilot can cope so well with something so far out of its official comfort zone, but a few 'little' things, like drifting left, spoil the show. I feel that it will achieve 80/20 in a reasonable amount of time (quite a few years but we are in this for the long haul), which is why I ordered FSD.

One thing the video doesn't show is all the phantom braking you get when driving along a narrow unmarked road when there is traffic coming the other way. Plus it fails to cope with any parked cars on the road, even if they are only partially in the road. I drive through a village every day with a fairly wide, but completely unmarked, road. I often test AP on this road and it does divide the road into 2 lanes correctly, but it easily gets spooked by oncoming traffic (hitting the brakes quite hard) which would not bother it at all on a similar road with painted centre lines. My car has 2.5 hardware, so maybe 3.0 would be better.

Overall, current AP/FSD is nowhere near capable of autonomous driving, but it can cope pretty well with many A-roads. The other thing it is currently very poor at is speed control. If for example you are in AP on a winding 60 mph road it will automatically brake for bends, but often not enough to get round them consistently without having to over-ride auto-steer. It does a better job when following another car where the driver in front is effectively controlling your speed too. Left to its own speed control it typically enters corners too fast and then over-compensates with a very slow exit. The only way to make it smoother is to set a lower speed limit and manually adjust it for the straights. I think the guy in the video was doing this kind of thing.

 

[MrBadger]

Mobility is more than just transport.

For example, school runs are a very modern thing. They hopefully will just be a temporary blip. Lots of ways to eradicate the need for personal transport. Do all the kids living in the Australian outback get driven miles to school? So why will it be necessary to keep doing the same here? Feet, bikes, shared transport, technology, planning and lots of other things to contribute to the solution.

 

[Jason71]

Call me cynical but when laws on self driving finally sort themselves out, whenever that is, I honestly don't believe that the current generation of Teslas clever as they are (if any are still on the road then) will turn out to have all of the necessary hardware that will be required to comply with the law and retrofitting will be impractical/cost prohibitive.

 

[WannabeOwner]

will turn out to have all of the necessary hardware

That will be a problem for Tesla 'coz the cars a have been sold (since AP2) as having all they need (except a faster processor which, for anyone that bought FSD with the car, Tesla have promised to retro fit).

 

[pgkevet]

....but it can cope pretty well with many A-roads. The other thing it is currently very poor at is speed control. If for example you are in AP on a winding 60 mph road it will automatically brake for bends, but often not enough to get round them consistently without having to over-ride auto-steer. It does a better job when following another car where the driver in front is effectively controlling your speed too. Left to its own speed control it typically enters corners too fast and then over-compensates with a very slow exit. The only way to make it smoother is to set a lower speed limit and manually adjust it for the straights. I think the guy in the video was doing this kind of thing.

You should try EAP on my winding welsh roads (for a laugh when reflexes feel good): it's still accelerating to the 60mph with a 90deg right hander obstructed by tree ahead, panics, drops out and lets you handle the bend...