Buy a Volt until the Model 3 Comes Out

[swhang]

So this past week, we have seen a ton of bad news. Not all unexpected, but more concrete details of what we were expecting.

- Delay of the Model 3
- The $7500 rebate disappearing from 2018 onward
- Thought about breaking the bank and rush ordering the S75D, but there's no guarantee that it could be delivered before 1/1/18, especially since Tesla said they'll take away 10% of resources from the S/X line to put into the Model 3.

I'm month to month on my Nissan Leaf. I'm a day 1 reservation holder in the East coast. I was going to hold out until Jan 2018, when the most optimistic of timelines when Tesla originally gave them out. But I'm realistically looking at probably mid 2018.

So I had a thought. Get the cheapest Volt now. Take my time with the Model 3 and wait for the exact specs to become available. When it does, sell the Volt. If the numbers work out right, I will not have lost much at all on that Volt.

The cheapest Volt can be had for around $30k. Then I can sell it for $22-24k mid 2018 and not really lose money.

Has anyone else thought about this? And does my plan make sense? If not, please feel free to blow it to shreds.

 

[insaneoctane]

Yes, I've thought about this and my math always shows buying a car for a short period costs a S*load. Tax in CA on the purchase is like $2,500 alone! I've looked into leasing a Bolt, but with my high mileage requirements (I drive 20K miles per year), many leases are expensive. I've already found a new Bolt on 36 month lease, prepaid 20K/year mileage, with $0 down @ $422/month. That would buy me time to figure out what the hell is happening with the Model 3 and the entire market, for that matter for about $15K. What's going on with AP? What's going on with EV range? What's going on with pricing? Right now, with the Model 3 I was looking at costing $55K (because it's the "loaded" first production) that *WAS* going to have the $7.5K federal tax credit, it's certainly not the "steal" I thought it would be when I was standing in that long line on March 31st. I'm still looking at my options. Maybe throwing the dice on the EV credit somehow staying around, or just getting an SR, or leasing a Bolt and deciding what to do in 36 months. Should I spend $15K to delay my decision for 3 years and evaluate the market? Should I use that $15K to buy an early M3 release down from $55K to $40K? Don't know what I'll do yet.

 

[Tiger]

If price is a significant factor, a Dacia EV would be a better option than M3: World's Cheapest EV Could Come From Dacia, Renault's Low-Cost Arm

 

[ElecFan]

The Dacia EV may be a little late....

"the low-cost car manufacturer from Romania is also looking forward to what lies beyond the year 2020. And for Dacia, electrification is one of the main challenges that will be brought in by the next decade."

 

[Country Roads]

Buy a used Volt for $10k, and sell it in 1-2 years for $7k. cost effective EV transportation.
We have 2 Volts and a Model S. Am very happy with the Volts. They nail their niche.

 

[trm2]

Buying a Volt isn’t a bad idea. 30k before tax credit and it gives you plenty of time to wait on the right Model 3 with all of the kinks worked out. A cheap used Volt isn’t a bad idea either. We have ‘15 and a ’17 Volt in our garage (until my S gets here in what better be late December, then the ‘15 is gone). Three things on the gen 1 Volt are better than the gen 2. Gen 1 has homelink, turn indicators on the mirrors and a much better dead pedal. Everything else is better on the gen 2.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So this past week, we have seen a ton of bad news. Not all unexpected, but more concrete details of what we were expecting.

- Delay of the Model 3
- The $7500 rebate disappearing from 2018 onward
- Thought about breaking the bank and rush ordering the S75D, but there's no guarantee that it could be delivered before 1/1/18, especially since Tesla said they'll take away 10% of resources from the S/X line to put into the Model 3.

I'm month to month on my Nissan Leaf. I'm a day 1 reservation holder in the East coast. I was going to hold out until Jan 2018, when the most optimistic of timelines when Tesla originally gave them out. But I'm realistically looking at probably mid 2018.

So I had a thought. Get the cheapest Volt now. Take my time with the Model 3 and wait for the exact specs to become available. When it does, sell the Volt. If the numbers work out right, I will not have lost much at all on that Volt.

The cheapest Volt can be had for around $30k. Then I can sell it for $22-24k mid 2018 and not really lose money.

Has anyone else thought about this? And does my plan make sense? If not, please feel free to blow it to shreds.

Used Gen 1 Volts are cheaper. Already taken depreciation, less risk involved.
Also, not a new car, so doesn't give GM any traveling ZEV credits.

 

[Hitman007]

Was he talking about the new Bolt or Volt? They are completely different animals. Hybrid vs Electric. A used Volt is cheap but its not a EV. I looked at the new Bolt and it is a nice EV but there is a huge problem with the seats. I think there even may be a class action starting on forcing GM to replace the seats. If I were to buy an EV to fill in for a Model 3 which may be 2 to 3 years out, I would get a 2017 Leaf. Nissan can't give them away right now because everyone wants the new 2018 model. You can probably get a 17 Leaf very cheap right now.

 

[jbcarioca]

Was he talking about the new Bolt or Volt? They are completely different animals. Hybrid vs Electric. A used Volt is cheap but its not a EV. I looked at the new Bolt and it is a nice EV but there is a huge problem with the seats. I think there even may be a class action starting on forcing GM to replace the seats. If I were to buy an EV to fill in for a Model 3 which may be 2 to 3 years out, I would get a 2017 Leaf. Nissan can't give them away right now because everyone wants the new 2018 model. You can probably get a 17 Leaf very cheap right now.

If there were Leaf available in Brazil I would have bought one to use until Model 3 makes it here. I have recommended Leaf both new and used. At the moment there's no better deal widely available.

If Leaf does not work then a Volt is a really good option. Even though it is not a BEV it's real world urban battery only ranges is 20-25 miles. One friend lives 22 miles from his office, and has not used the ICE for months except for the once a month he says he runs the battery down to gr the engine to run for a while. He'd change for a Bolt if he could find one where he lives. He expects to switch to the Model 3's he has reserved whenever they arrive.

 

[swhang]

The idea is to get a car where I am losing nothing or very little. Buying a used Leaf or Volt, and then reselling that would cause me to lose several thousand dollars.

Buying the cheapest brand new Volt with taxes and registration, I think I can get for around $30k.

After federal rebate, it's $22.5k.

When I get the Model 3, sell the Volt for around $22.5k.

With this situation, I think I would lose the least money.

I've thought about the Bolt, but depreciation for the Bolts would be greater than the Volt. The Volts seems to hold their value very well. A lot better than any BEV except for Teslas.

 

[jkoeller]

I don’t think a decision can be made based in the loss of the $7500 tax credit until the tax reform bill passes. There’s still a decent chance we don’t lose it.

The Volt is a great temporary alternative for those needing to replace their current ride. I would look for a used Gen-1 vs. new, as has been suggested. We currently have 3 Volts in the family, and if the loss of the tax credit becomes reality, I’ll be holding onto mine until AWD is available rather than getting a first production Model 3.

And for those stuck in the semantics that the Volt isn’t an EV (like it’s some kind of Chevy-branded Prius), it’s all electric for the 1st 40 miles, any speed, every day. For most of us, that’s equivalent to being an EV the vast majority of the time. When we need to drive further, the engine’s there (although a 310 mile Model 3 would be preferred ). Overall, our little fleet of Volt’s are getting 200+ MPG in their lifetime (6, 6 & 5 years)... not a bad temporary affordable solution until it can be replaced with the Model 3 we so desire.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Was he talking about the new Bolt or Volt? They are completely different animals. Hybrid vs Electric. A used Volt is cheap but its not a EV. I looked at the new Bolt and it is a nice EV but there is a huge problem with the seats. I think there even may be a class action starting on forcing GM to replace the seats. If I were to buy an EV to fill in for a Model 3 which may be 2 to 3 years out, I would get a 2017 Leaf. Nissan can't give them away right now because everyone wants the new 2018 model. You can probably get a 17 Leaf very cheap right now.

I have to respectfully disagree. While the Volt may operate as a hybrid once its battery is depleted, if I drive less than 60 miles/day (without extra charging even considered) it IS an EV, and one that from an energy perspective is even more efficient than a Model S or X. The attitude that because it has a backup gas engine it's not somehow "pure" enough is absurd. Like me, many people wouldn't be able to get by with a Leaf by itself (which I have no animosity towards, I just recognize its limitations) and have a gas-engined car as well. What's wrong with having that gas engine backup in the same chassis?

To the original poster: Volts, especially first gens, have depreciated enough that you could probably drive one for a couple of years and lose a couple grand on resale. If you drive less than 40 miles a day (1st gen) or can charge at work it's a great "EV" with a lot more flexibility if you have to make that long trip.

 

[Az_Rael]

The idea is to get a car where I am losing nothing or very little. Buying a used Leaf or Volt, and then reselling that would cause me to lose several thousand dollars.

Buying the cheapest brand new Volt with taxes and registration, I think I can get for around $30k.

After federal rebate, it's $22.5k.

When I get the Model 3, sell the Volt for around $22.5k.

With this situation, I think I would lose the least money.

I've thought about the Bolt, but depreciation for the Bolts would be greater than the Volt. The Volts seems to hold their value very well. A lot better than any BEV except for Teslas.

As someone who did this, you are going to lose a lot of money. I bought a new gen 1 2014 Volt with all the credit, for only a little more than used ones were going for (about $25k at the time). Two years later I sold it for $9000 to buy my Model S. I probably could have maxed it out at 12k if I had sold it privately. Absolutely no one was going to pay me even $20k for my used Volt

When the credit goes away, GM will most likely start lowering new Volt prices. They did a $5k drop on the price during the Gen 1 production, which instantly depreciated everyone’s car by that much. My problem was the Gen 2 came out right as I was selling mine. So you would have to watch for the Gen 3 or whatever other cars GM might decide to put the Voltec system in that may be more attractive to buyers than the compact Volt.

Buy a used one, you will lose the least. They are great cars, but very undervalued in the general car market.

 

[azred]

Not to say elimination of tax credit won’t happen this year, but consider the source. Of course the source is the same bozos who spent most of the 8 years of Obama trying to block every piece of legislation while promising that as soon as they got control they’d immediately eliminate Obamacare. How’d that work out?

 

[Az_Rael]

Not to say elimination of tax credit won’t happen this year, but consider the source. Of course the source is the same Republican bozos who spent most of the 8 years of Obama blocking every piece of legislation while promising that as soon as they got control they’d immediately eliminate Obamacare. How’d that work out?

GMs credit will run out in 2018 even if they don’t enact the law. They were on track to beat Tesla and Nissan to the 200k threshold.

 

[jkoeller]

After federal rebate, it's $22.5k.

When I get the Model 3, sell the Volt for around $22.5k.

You'll never find a buyer of a used Volt for $22.5K. As Volt owners, we know it should be worth $22.5k, but the car-buying public doesn't, nor do car dealers, who pretty much know nothing about them. Going this route will drastically increase your risk, plus if applicable in your state, you'll have to pay sales tax on the total cost of the new car, including the $7500.

 

[azred]

You'll never find a buyer of a used Volt for $22.5K. As Volt owners, we know it should be worth $22.5k, but the car-buying public doesn't, nor do car dealers, who pretty much know nothing about them. Going this route will drastically increase your risk, plus if applicable in your state, you'll have to pay sales tax on the total cost of the new car, including the $7500.

There could be an unstated assumption that when resold the $7500 tax credit will be gone and therefore resale values should get an upward bump. Of course new Volt sales will also slow unless prices are reduced and that should adversely affect resale prices.

 

[jkoeller]

There could be an unstated assumption that when resold the $7500 tax credit will be gone and therefore resale values should get an upward bump. Of course new Volt sales will also slow unless prices are reduced.

Sorry, I probably overstated it (never say never, right?), but I still maintain that there's a much higher risk of losing more than a couple thousand $ buying new, vs. buying a used 2012-2014 Volt. In my state, the sales tax alone on the $7500 would be ~$1000, and there's no recouping that.

 

[KJD]

The idea is to get a car where I am losing nothing or very little. Buying a used Leaf or Volt, and then reselling that would cause me to lose several thousand dollars.

Buying the cheapest brand new Volt with taxes and registration, I think I can get for around $30k.

After federal rebate, it's $22.5k.

When I get the Model 3, sell the Volt for around $22.5k.

With this situation, I think I would lose the least money.

I've thought about the Bolt, but depreciation for the Bolts would be greater than the Volt. The Volts seems to hold their value very well. A lot better than any BEV except for Teslas.

Kelly Blue book shows first year depreciation on a Volt to be 17,668. See yearly cost break down.
2017 Chevrolet Volt LT 5-Year Cost To Own - Kelley Blue Book

First year depreciation on any car is huge. Let someone else make that mistake.

 

[swhang]

I did a check on KBB for a used 2017 Volt LT with no options and 8,000 miles. It's $22k.