Buy a Volt until the Model 3 Comes Out

[McRat]

If most of your driving is city, or congested (significant stop and go, or speeds under 65), the Volt will most likely do all your commuting chores on just electricity, even 120v. Look at Chart 2 and double the numbers.
https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/...s/omnistats/volume_03_issue_04/pdf/entire.pdf

Common city range:
2011-2015 (G1) 40 miles ±4mi
2016-2018 (G2) 60 miles ±6mi

Because of this it is not usual to go months without a visit to the gas station.

Unlike most hybrids, it has full passing power without using gasoline. Which is more passing power than the Leaf or Priuses (any) by a good amount. There is zero lag in pedal response, and a full 60kW regen on tap. It also handles better than most cars in it's class.

Freeway range at 101 mph (limiter) is roughly 50% of that, but by using the generator, you can go about 200 miles at that speed.

 

[Az_Rael]

I did a check on KBB for a used 2017 Volt LT with no options and 8,000 miles. It's $22k.

How long are you going to own it? You might should be checking prices of 2016s if you are going to own a 2017 until the 2019 cars come out in August.

Unless you are buying a 2018.

 

[patrick40363]

So this past week, we have seen a ton of bad news. Not all unexpected, but more concrete details of what we were expecting.

- Delay of the Model 3
- The $7500 rebate disappearing from 2018 onward
- Thought about breaking the bank and rush ordering the S75D, but there's no guarantee that it could be delivered before 1/1/18, especially since Tesla said they'll take away 10% of resources from the S/X line to put into the Model 3.

I'm month to month on my Nissan Leaf. I'm a day 1 reservation holder in the East coast. I was going to hold out until Jan 2018, when the most optimistic of timelines when Tesla originally gave them out. But I'm realistically looking at probably mid 2018.

So I had a thought. Get the cheapest Volt now. Take my time with the Model 3 and wait for the exact specs to become available. When it does, sell the Volt. If the numbers work out right, I will not have lost much at all on that Volt.

The cheapest Volt can be had for around $30k. Then I can sell it for $22-24k mid 2018 and not really lose money.

Has anyone else thought about this? And does my plan make sense? If not, please feel free to blow it to shreds.

Volt is a great car. Had one before my tesla.

 

[gavine]

Funny. I was thinking about this topic this morning and I logged-on to TMC planning to search for this topic. I started with the “new posts” link and, wouldn’t you know, this was the first thread on the list. I am a Tesla owner with a March 31st reservation. There is no sales tax in NJ on zero emissions vehicles so my thought was to buy a Bolt, get the $7500 credit and then sell it 6 months to a year later when Zimmerman ready for my Model 3. I won’t put many miles on it so I don’t think I will lose much on it. Besides paying a destination charge, it feels like the car would be practically free. Of course, I would only do this if the tax credit is confirmed to be going away and I can’t get my Model 3 in 2017. If it does go-away, the values of used Bolts will have to go up. So, I have to think that the $7500 covers most of the depreciation, especially since there is no sales tax. A concern would be if Chevy drops the price on the Bolt after credit goes away.

 

[C141medic]

Funny. I was thinking about this topic this morning and I logged-on to TMC planning to search for this topic. I started with the “new posts” link and, wouldn’t you know, this was the first thread on the list. I am a Tesla owner with a March 31st reservation. There is no sales tax in NJ on zero emissions vehicles so my thought was to buy a Bolt, get the $7500 credit and then sell it 6 months to a year later when Zimmerman ready for my Model 3. I won’t put many miles on it so I don’t think I will lose much on it. Besides paying a destination charge, it feels like the car would be practically free. Of course, I would only do this if the tax credit is confirmed to be going away and I can’t get my Model 3 in 2017. If it does go-away, the values of used Bolts will have to go up. So, I have to think that the $7500 covers most of the depreciation, especially since there is no sales tax. A concern would be if Chevy drops the price on the Bolt after credit goes away.

Interesting thought. I'm in Nj too but somehow can't believe this would work. Vehicles depreciate like crazy within the first year so not sure if you wouldn't incur some loss even with all the credits.

 

[gavine]

Interesting thought. I'm in Nj too but somehow can't believe this would work. Vehicles depreciate like crazy within the first year so not sure if you wouldn't incur some loss even with all the credits.

I would normally agree, but with the tax credit abruptly going-away, my assumption is that the car will hold its value because newer cars won’t have the tax credit so I can sell with a $7500 discount and still break-even. Plus, I will,have equity in the car from the payments I have made. No way to accurately forecast what the resale value would be, but this situation is very unique. $7500 is around 20% of the price of the car. Will the Bolt depreciate more than 20% in a year or less with very few miles?

With all of this said, I’m still hoping (of course) that I can get my Model 3 this year and make all of this moot. The Bolt is a big plan-B for me and definitely not my preference.

 

[C141medic]

I would normally agree, but with the tax credit abruptly going-away, my assumption is that the car will hold its value because newer cars won’t have the tax credit so I can sell with a $7500 discount and still break-even. Plus, I will,have equity in the car from the payments I have made. No way to accurately forecast what the resale value would be, but this situation is very unique. $7500 is around 20% of the price of the car. Will the Bolt depreciate more than 20% in a year or less with very few miles?

With all of this said, I’m still hoping (of course) that I can get my Model 3 this year and make all of this moot. The Bolt is a big plan-B for me and definitely not my preference.

I’m hopeful that it will all work out and my preference is also definitely the M3. I have a plan B as well but can wait a while to activate.

 

[swhang]

I would normally agree, but with the tax credit abruptly going-away, my assumption is that the car will hold its value because newer cars won’t have the tax credit so I can sell with a $7500 discount and still break-even. Plus, I will,have equity in the car from the payments I have made. No way to accurately forecast what the resale value would be, but this situation is very unique. $7500 is around 20% of the price of the car. Will the Bolt depreciate more than 20% in a year or less with very few miles?

With all of this said, I’m still hoping (of course) that I can get my Model 3 this year and make all of this moot. The Bolt is a big plan-B for me and definitely not my preference.

That's exactly what I was thinking.... but a 20% depreciation is less in absolute cost for a Volt than a Bolt. But you get the same $7500 rebate. That means it helps more of the depreciation with the Volt than a Bolt. Also, I think the Volt will probably depreciate less because of the ICE component and so won't get outdated as quickly as a Bolt.

 

[zoiks66]

I’ve been thinking in a similar way. I have an Audi lease ending in the summer of 2018, and I live in an area in the Midwest where an AWD or FWD vehicle is basically mandatory in the winter time. There seems to be no chance I’ll receive a day 1 reservation of an AWD Model 3 by the end of the summer when my Audi lease ends, and it’s likely Tesla will run out of $7500 tax credits by the time I’d receive an AWD Model 3 anyway. Without the $7500 federal tax credit, an AWD Model 3 will cost more than I want to pay.

Therefore, if the $7500 federal credit ends at year end, I’m thinking I will lease a Chevy Bolt before the $7500 tax credit ends. I previously leased a Gen 1 Volt and liked that car. I would not buy a non-Tesla EV though. The Volt I leased depreciated so fast that is was worth $10,000 less than what GM set the residual when I turned the car in after the 3 year lease ended. I expect the Bolt will depreciate rapidly in the same way. I think this is due to the limited market for EV vehicles, along with the fact that EV technology rapidly advances and makes a 3 year old model obsolete. I would not want to buy an EV that is not capable of self-driving either, since the self-driving EV’s will greatly depreciate non-self driving EV’s.

 

[gavine]

I would not buy a non-Tesla EV though.

I would not buy a non-Tesla anything right now. Anyone in the market for a gas car should be leasing in my opinion. Too much innovation going on. Let the bank take the risk. You can always buy-out/finance the car at the end of the lease.

 

[bro1999]

Funny. I was thinking about this topic this morning and I logged-on to TMC planning to search for this topic. I started with the “new posts” link and, wouldn’t you know, this was the first thread on the list. I am a Tesla owner with a March 31st reservation. There is no sales tax in NJ on zero emissions vehicles so my thought was to buy a Bolt, get the $7500 credit and then sell it 6 months to a year later when Zimmerman ready for my Model 3. I won’t put many miles on it so I don’t think I will lose much on it. Besides paying a destination charge, it feels like the car would be practically free. Of course, I would only do this if the tax credit is confirmed to be going away and I can’t get my Model 3 in 2017. If it does go-away, the values of used Bolts will have to go up. So, I have to think that the $7500 covers most of the depreciation, especially since there is no sales tax. A concern would be if Chevy drops the price on the Bolt after credit goes away.

You could also try and transfer that Volt lease down the road. I leased a '17 Volt last year (cashed in on the $2,300 MD tax credit) for $261/month, $0 down all said and told (but before accounting for the $2,300). Eventually transferred it 9 months later. Taking into account just the lease payments, after deducting the $2,300 MD tax credit, I paid $49 TOTAL to lease a Volt for 9 months. Or less than $6/month. If I didn't have to roll $1,600 of negative equity into the deal, I would have actually MADE money on the transaction!

Of course this is all dependent on successfully transferring the lease. GM Financial restricts lease transfers to in-state only, so if you are in NJ, you would need to find another NJ resident to assume the lease. My lease deal was especially good (details posted below), so it was not hard to find a MD resident willing to assume the lease.

Lease details on '17 Volt LT from June 2016:

MSRP: $35,090 (comfort package, siren red premium paint, all weather floor mats)
Term: 36 months
Miles: 10,000 per year
Money factor: .00095 (bumped 55 points from .0004 to waive lease acquisition fee)
Lease acquisition fee: $0
Residual: 51%
End of lease buyout price: $17,895.90

Discounts/Rebates:
Dealer discount: $3,748
Capital Cost Reduction: $4,610
Incremental CCR (aka CARB state bonus cash): $2,250
Private offer: $1,000
Farm bureau: $500
GM Card earnings: $903.65

Fees/taxes:
Sales tax: $1,176.52 (MD charges full sales tax on a lease; received $817 tax credit for Cruze trade-in value)
Dealer Doc fee: $300
Title/Registration: $279
Other: $1,639 (negative equity from Cruze trade-in rolled into lease)

Bottom line:
Monthly payment: $261.04 (first payment waived)
Due at signing: $0

 

[daniel]

I think it's naive to think that the depreciation on a new Volt or Bolt would be only $7,500. Also naive to think that GM will not lower the price at least a bit if the tax credit goes away. Tesla cannot afford to do that, but the Volts and Bolts are such a small part of GM's business that they can afford it.

You will never save money on any new car. You don't buy a new car to save money. You buy a new car because you want a new car or you want the latest tech. If money is your concern, you're always better off buying used. I'd say if you need to buy a car for the interim before the Model 3 becomes available, buy a used Leaf. Or a Volt if you really like the range extender concept. (I don't like GM. I don't like their historical attitude toward the public and their customers. I also don't like the Volt for having two clutches. Clutches are major repair items.)

 

[Jeff N]

I also don't like the Volt for having two clutches. Clutches are major repair items.

You may be thinking of the dry clutch on a manual transmission that get lots of stress and slippage under high torque. The wet clutches in a Volt or in many automatic transmissions last for the life of the car. In the Volt, the gears being clutched are carefully matched by the transmission computer in rpm and torque to each other during the handoff using the motors so there is little stress during the gear transfer.

There are lots of folks now with 100,000+ miles on their Volts (I had 140,000 on mine when I sold it) and I have yet to hear about any problems with worn clutches needing to be replaced. One guy has now driven 410,000 miles on a 2012 Volt without having any clutch or transmission problems, as far as I know.

 

[sduck]

I bought a volt 2 years ago, and while I wanted some kind of tesla, finding a reasonably priced used model S was pretty much impossible, and the model 3 didn't exist yet. So the volt was and is my poor man's tesla. I traded in a relatively new FJ Cruiser for a used 2012 volt, and ended up getting it basically for free that way. And of course my gas expense has dropped to almost nothing, so it's been easily the cheapest vehicle I've ever had.

I probably have another year wait for my model 3, hopefully a bit less, and I'll be ready to get out of this volt by then. While it's been relatively trouble free, it's now in the shop for the second time in 2 weeks, this time with the same codes as the first time.

 

[RedModel3]

Here's another vote for a used Volt. I bought my 2012 last year for under 12K. At the time it had 69K miles on it, as there were only two on the market near me and the other one was more expensive and got sold just before I had a chance to look at it. I LOVE this car. It was certified pre-owned, and I think the dealership just wanted to be rid of it because they just didn't want to bother with it. It had been on the lot for months and they didn't even realize it didn't have a charger cable.

Anyway, with the way I drive I can still get upwards of 40 miles to a charge, and when it's temperate, i.e., don't have to run the heat or air too much, I've gotten up to 50. Except for longer road trips, I haven't had to put gas in for my every day commutes. My previous car was a Lexus CT hybrid which had the pickup of a 1952 Massey Ferguson tractor. The Volt ROCKS. I feel completely safe getting around on the interstate or heavy city traffic. I will be a very happy camper until my 3 comes.

My biggest expense to date was to install a dedicated 120 volt line to reach where I park it so that I could charge it without driving onto my lawn. I didn't do a 240 volt line because that would have involved upgrading my service.

Go for the Volt. USED.

 

[daniel]

You may be thinking of the dry clutch on a manual transmission that get lots of stress and slippage under high torque. The wet clutches in a Volt or in many automatic transmissions last for the life of the car. In the Volt, the gears being clutched are carefully matched by the transmission computer in rpm and torque to each other during the handoff using the motors so there is little stress during the gear transfer.

There are lots of folks now with 100,000+ miles on their Volts (I had 140,000 on mine when I sold it) and I have yet to hear about any problems with worn clutches needing to be replaced. One guy has now driven 410,000 miles on a 2012 Volt without having any clutch or transmission problems, as far as I know.

Thanks for that information. I'm not much of a car guy. I did drive a Volt once. It was very comfortable and handled well, with decent pickup, but I don't like GM. I already had my Roadster and I told the salesguy I was not buying because I already had an EV, but just wanted to see what the Volt was like, and he was happy to let me.

It's good to know the clutches are not what I thought.

 

[Dogwhistle]

Stay the course. Keep your current car until the Model 3 comes available. It will be here soon enough.

Patience, Grasshopper.

 

[derekmw]

As many have mentioned, do not buy new. You will not make any money selling it let alone coming out even. You will lose a LOT of money. EV's (especially Volt and leaf) depreciate quite rapidly the first few years. You'd be better off buying a 3+ yr or older Volt which will impact you much less depreciation wise.

I had a volt and leaf. If I was getting something for myself until the M3 came out, I'd get a leaf. Less components to break...but of course, it doesn't have the range the volt has with the gas option. The M3 will be for the wife and she doesn't want to drive a Volt again, nor does she ever want to own a leaf (the Leaf was mine). So until then, we just patiently wait...and maybe some other options pop up by the time we're able to order the M3.

 

[McRat]

It depends on how much the driving experience is worth to you.

The G2 Volt is quicker, lighter, and can be had with radar/camera AEB and ACC which work very well. And it burns regular 87 octane and uses less of it per mile in generator mode. There are no range limitations or recharging times necessary if you are in a rush.

Financially, you are best off buying a used <$5000 economy car.

If the $7500 credit vanishes, expect the residual value of a Volt to climb. Even after 7 years, it's hard to find one under $10k even from the $7500 era. In California we saw a bump when the state stopped their rebates for normal buyers.

 

[cbutters]

buy a used BMW i3 for ~15k (BEV)