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Buy AAPL?

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anticitizen13.7

Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Dec 22, 2012
3,638
5,870
United States
Apple has been hovering in the $400-500 range past few months. I wonder if it's a good buy now.

I browsed a lot of Apple forums when I was deciding whether to buy an iPhone, and the mood in these forums ranges from worried to despondent. People are mad at Tim Cook and say Apple has run out of innovation. When iOS 7 became available for Beta testing, much of the fanbase was enraged at the changes, and some even joked that Steve Jobs had left some of his "stash" for Johnny Ive to smoke.

Many Apple fans seem to be almost in tears that Android has dominated the smart phone market, and that the evolution of Android has brought features and amenities that iOS 6 did not have.

Given the high level of angst, and apparent loss of faith in the company by many after the loss of Steve Jobs... buy AAPL?

I never buy what is "hot". By the time the commercials trumpeting how much gold is worth are airing on cable TV, it's too late. The boat has already sailed. I buy what is "left for dead" or what others laugh at. People at work called me the "Suicide King" because I bought stocks like mad during the recession.

Leaks indicate that Apple has a new iPhone 5C, which appears to be an iPhone 5 but with a cheerful color plastic shell. This lower cost unit could bring Apple much greater marketshare in places where people don't want to spend $649 on a phone (Out of U.S., in countries where mobile phone contracts and subsidies are uncommon). It may be a huge hit with kids and others who want a colorful device with Apple branding. iPad mini with Retina display is also said to be "on the way".

Apple says more innovation is "on the way". We just don't know what that will be.

So: AAPL = potential? roadkill?
 
My 2 cents:

I bought AAPL leap options (Jan 2015) a couple months ago and I'm up nicely on them. I think the price was around $440-$450 around that time. I thought about selling recently, but I think I'm going to hang on. They have the new iPhone coming, the new Macbook Pro coming this year, the watch product likely within the next 6 months as well. Also, the lower end iPhone as you mentioned as well.

iPhone user for 5 years, but for something different I'm trying a Windows Phone right now. I may or may not go back to the iPhone.

I never would have thought I'd ever own another Apple product other than their iPhone, but it turns out I bought a Macbook Pro last month. It is some ridiculously great industrial design. I use Windows on it. I'm never going to iOS.. although something I'm learning is never say never. I thought I'd never have a Macbook Pro just 2-3 months ago..
 
I think Apple is a good buy for a long position. The financials are solid and the dividend is pretty robust. I owned the stock since just before the first iPhone was released, thought about selling in the free fall at around $500 but decided to hang on indefinitely because of the dividend. I actually added a few shares at around $420. There are plenty of people with more financial expertise than me as I'm just an amateur at this stuff. I like the product and the stock.
 
While most companies are judged on their financials (of which Apple is a steal), Apple however, is judged by its innovation.

Well, the other shoe dropped today and investors punished AAPL for what has been described as a lackluster product intro.

iPhone 5C - $99 on contract, $549 retail for the base 16GB model. Many people were hoping that this product would boost China market share, where Apple has been loosing ground badly to Android, but at that price, forget it.

iPhone 5S has some interesting features, notably an improved camera and fingerprint authentication. Nothing earth shattering though, and nothing that makes me want to run out and upgrade on launch day.
 
iPhone 5C - $99 on contract, $549 retail for the base 16GB model. Many people were hoping that this product would boost China market share, where Apple has been loosing ground badly to Android, but at that price, forget it.
This is a big fail. They will still sell boatloads of them, but definitely the pricing is higher than expected. $100 off the 5S isn't much.

iPhone 5S has some interesting features, notably an improved camera and fingerprint authentication. Nothing earth shattering though, and nothing that makes me want to run out and upgrade on launch day.
This was no surprise, but I guess investors wanted to be surprised.
 
I have a bunch, but not happy with their current product mix. The latest phones are not competitive IMHO. Samsung is king of smartphone specs so I don't expect that AAPL will win that fight. iOS7 is not innovative enough as they have yet to really move past the Jobs UI.


Make no mistake, AAPL still owns tablets so we'll see what the next one looks like.
 
The Apple fan base is largely mad at the perceived "lack of innovation", but what could Apple do?

I've seen a lot of calls for a larger display, but honestly, I bought a iPhone partly because I thought that most Android phones were getting too big.

The fingerprint scanner on the 5S apparently works pretty seamlessly. I'd like to see Apple make more usability improvements. They need a better software keyboard. Wireless charging might be worth looking at. Faster, better cameras are always welcome.
 
It'd be heresy, but what would make me buy a new iPhone (I'm still using my old iPhone 4 with its near-inoperable Home button), would be the announcement that there is a Settings preference for disabling all the fancy animation altogether. People would be unbelievably blown away by the perceived speed increase. You touch Home and BOOM you are home, no quick animations. The productivity boost would be phenomenal.

Of course, I have longed for this in MacOS as well. And of course, this type of feature (or feature removal) in iOs/MacOS X will never, ever happen with the current management team in place.