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Buy AutoPilot now...or Wait?

A few months ago, I had an EAP/FSD Trial when I purchased my car. I had reduced prices for FSD and Auto Pilot during the trial. My plan was to use the trial, and then on one of the last days I would purchase it.

Low and behold, Tesla cancelled my AutoPilot Trial with 24 days remaining and never honored the discounted Autopilot price. I was not and still not happy about this.

So now I am thinking about buying AutoPilot for 3k. Is now a good time? Or wait till FSD is released and hope they discount AutoPilot to less then 3k? Any advice or thoughts is appreciated. As much as I want FSD, it's too expensive right now.
 

Wennfred

Active Member
Supporting Member
Apr 4, 2019
3,052
2,141
San Diego
I’m in the same boat as you but feel 3000.00 is way too much. People are saying to buy now because it’s going to go up. I’m sure another Trial period will come up and the 2k discount will show up again. If it doesn’t then no biggie.

Fred
 

Thirsty3

Member
Oct 20, 2018
91
86
Philly
I'm hoping for another AP sale maybe to boost Q4 revenue - it's pure profit. At the very least, I'd like another trial with discounted pricing. I think $1,500 is the magic number for what essentially amounts to distance-keeping cruise control. I'd also love for them to price some of the FSD elements individually - like auto-lane change for another $500 (I'm sure they will always make the fun stuff like recognizing traffic lights and smart summon FSD package only).
 
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willow_hiller

Active Member
Apr 3, 2019
3,313
17,359
Maryland
I also bought my car without AP in March. Had about 20 days of the FSD trial and also lost it. Paid $3,000 for an AP upgrade in July and here was my logic:

If Tesla hasn't discounted AP yet, months after it was included standard, they're probably not going to discount it by much. Best case scenario maybe it will be $2,000 if you wait until the end of the year, it would anger a lot of customers if they made it a completely free upgrade. It was worth $1,000 (opportunity cost of buying now) to me to have AP from now until when they discount it.

Since buying AP, I've had several long road trips that were made extremely enjoyable due to having it. Those trips alone made buying AP sooner rather than later worth it.
 

DJVoorhees

Member
Jun 16, 2019
298
252
New Jersey
Less than $3k would be my budget too. FSD (for me) is currently $6k...which is a huge amount for a software upgrade.

Not to mention it’s largely vapor ware, FSD generally doesn’t exist and nobody knows when it will be. It’s also tied to the car, not you. If you don’t plan on keeping your car a very long time you may never see your investment come to fruition.
 

woodisgood

Slightly faster than 5mph
Jul 26, 2018
2,828
16,328
San Francisco
FSD right now is really for people that like to have bleeding edge tech as it matures. It's not a polished, finished product and won't be for many years.

Only you can decide if that's a source of satisfaction for you, and whether you can gain utility from it. The true promise of FSD (Level 4/5 autonomy) won't be fulfilled for your current Tesla(s) unless you keep them for another 5+ years. I truly do hope Tesla comes up with a way to allow owners to transfer FSD from an old car to a new one but they will have literally no incentive to do so.
 

Thirsty3

Member
Oct 20, 2018
91
86
Philly
I wonder if today's announcement that all loaner cars will have AP will impact this in some way. This seems to be further confirmation that Tesla believes all of their cars should be experienced only with AP (in some way a tacit acknowledgement that all cars that are capable of running AP should have it installed). At the same time, this provides another opportunity for non-AP folks to trial the software/convince them to buy. The question remains, will any of this result in a discount?
 
AP works well now and for me since 20.4.2.2. So FSD gets you lane changes and entry/exit of freeway i.e. "navigate on AP". The other two features of note parking and summon are cool but not worth anything IMHO. Eventually FSD will get you city driving: detecting spot lights; signs, etc and I assume with navigation as well. I need none of that. Indeed doing lane changes while on AP is a pain as you have to disable it or have it auto-disable when you turn your blinker on and then re-enable it. It's great in stop-n-go traffic. So glad I have AP as I use it. FSD for twice the price: where's the value?
 
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willow_hiller

Active Member
Apr 3, 2019
3,313
17,359
Maryland
FSD for twice the price: where's the value?

It's purely speculative right now, but the potential value is massive. Right now I'm spending $3,000 a year on subway fare for my 10 mile commute. Parking spaces cost even more. But if FSD could ever drop me off at work and park at home, it would pay for itself in 2 years.

But who knows the odds of that actually coming to be. And frankly, if they do reach that level of FSD, I'd kick myself for not buying it at $6,000, but I'd still happily pay $10,000 or however much it costs at that point. A ~3 year ROI plus trading a smelly metro ride for a comfy car is a deal I'd take every time.
 

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