Buy AutoPilot now...or Wait?

[mreynolds767]

It was $2K pre-delivery but don't think it was ever that low post delivery. Possible for some who had a trial but that was temporary.
Since they included it in the car now, you can assume you are in the minority of holdouts and unlikely any marketing effort will be put forth toward basic AP signups anymore.
Only way you can get one without it is a special order SR which they are not exactly encouraging orders on.
All of their used cars, they are installing basic AP on as well, it is the new standard so I would not hold out hope in a price reduction.
EAP would be great but that would totally cannibalize FSD sales, as currently FSD offers zero over EAP.
Old EAP owners may want FSD for the 3.0 hardware but new buyers already have 3.0.

 

[Battpower]

Old EAP owners may want FSD for the 3.0 hardware but new buyers already have 3.0.

except what is 'FSD' if you can buy it as an upgrade for 5000 for a car that won't support hw3?

 

[willow_hiller]

hmm Interesting you didn't have the $2k like OP. Pricing different based on trim? Hope not.

BTW Were there any noticeable improvements after V10. When I test drove AP (in early 2019) I remember getting startled by a sudden swerve when there wasn't anything there.

Maybe @Wennfred was able to complete his trial? My trial got cancelled in the middle when the whole trial program was cancelled.

Also, it is a bit better. We decided not to buy it pre-delivery because during the test drive it would always swerve to fill the lane when exits came up. They've fixed that for exit lanes coming off a highway as it seems to look more forward to see if the white line picks back up, but it still does fill space during an exit lane merging into the highway. Also, with V10 AP will shy away from trucks, and has really good pick-up during stop and go traffic.

 

[Kevy Baby]

And presently, the base Model 3 SR also does not include AP.

Except one can't currently purchase an SR, only SR+, which does come with AP.

 

[vickh]

Except one can't currently purchase an SR, only SR+, which does come with AP.

not online, purchase on the phone/store..

 

[johnnybravo]

I did that, I bought the SR- without AP. It's 3K to add AP or $4,500 to upgrade to SR+ w/ AP. I'm sure they will offer up some deal, like some have said, it's instant $ for TSLA. I see these software upgrades like DLCs for games - they always go on sale at some point

My sweet spot would be ~2k

 

[Fernand]

Since we have some new people here, let me just throw this out: a Tesla without the highest level of automation available at the time is a very nice car and all that, but it's not the full experience. I have NOA, use it all the time, it keeps evolving, and if I had to go back to plain AP, let alone an M3 without even AP, it would feel like going back to a gasoline car, that's how much I value it.

As to the reasoning that amortizes cost by imagining the car dropping you off downtown and picking you up after work, I'm afraid that's fantasy accounting at this point.

Not that it's impossible, it will come, but "FSD " is not a single item, it's a gradual process. E.g. today's Summon is a stage on the development line. Once you get comfortable using today's developing automation, and I say that as a hard core NOA user, you appreciate why that door to door SciFi scenario is a long ways off. Nobody can say exactly when, until we get there, until we've worked through all the unforeseen obstacles.

And it's not that Elon Musk is trying to pull the microfiber over anyone's eyes. But as a guy who's concerned with getting humanity to Mars and beyond because the sun will burn up the Earth in ~ 150 million years, he's obviously not so much thinking in terms of Q3 vs. Q4, or the regulatory barriers. He knows where we're headed, in the long term. I, for one, am all in for the experience.

 

[bdub85]

Since we have some new people here, let me just throw this out: a Tesla without the highest level of automation available at the time is a very nice car and all that, but it's not the full experience. I have NOA, use it all the time, it keeps evolving, and if I had to go back to plain AP, let alone an M3 without even AP, it would feel like going back to a gasoline car, that's how much I value it.

As to the reasoning that amortizes cost by imagining the car dropping you off downtown and picking you up after work, I'm afraid that's fantasy accounting at this point.

Not that it's impossible, it will come, but "FSD " is not a single item, it's a gradual process. E.g. today's Summon is a stage on the development line. Once you get comfortable using today's developing automation, and I say that as a hard core NOA user, you appreciate why that door to door SciFi scenario is a long ways off. Nobody can say exactly when, until we get there, until we've worked through all the unforeseen obstacles.

And it's not that Elon Musk is trying to pull the microfiber over anyone's eyes. But as a guy who's concerned with getting humanity to Mars and beyond because the sun will burn up the Earth in ~ 150 million years, he's obviously not so much thinking in terms of Q3 vs. Q4, or the regulatory barriers. He knows where we're headed, in the long term. I, for one, am all in for the experience.

One thing people have to realize about software development is that it's an iterative process. This is especially true when an agile software development process is followed which is what Tesla does. Agile software development focuses on breaking down and completing work in short sprint cycles (1-4 weeks). This means there is constantly new software being written and deployed very frequently.

What this means for fsd is that fsd is the overall goal or epic which gets broken down into many different pieces that can be worked on and completed. IE, smart summon, NOA, sign recognition, etc... These small pieces are constantly getting finished and pushed out. Some of these may not even be realized by the end user because they could be back end code changes that aren't active yet until the next piece that requires those changes is completed and deployed.

It's all about iteration and they will get there. It will keep improving with each release.

 

[mreynolds767]

Unfortunately you can no longer get NOA without full FSD purchase
I have driven in NOA and no one in their right mind would say currently it is $6k better than AP ; it only adds lane change ability

The other tasks within FSD like summon, enhanced summon are more gimmicks that would be nice to have but don’t have much value currently.

 

[nvx1977]

And it's not that Elon Musk is trying to pull the microfiber over anyone's eyes. But as a guy who's concerned with getting humanity to Mars and beyond because the sun will burn up the Earth in ~ 150 million years, he's obviously not so much thinking in terms of Q3 vs. Q4, or the regulatory barriers. He knows where we're headed, in the long term. I, for one, am all in for the experience.

it will take a lot longer for the sun to do that. but he's not concerned about that event; he's more worried about the stray asteroid that's too large/fast for us to nullify.

And he's also not suggesting we would come close to evacuating the whole Earth. Just that enough of us survive to continue the species. We'd have better odds if we're diversified.

Also, when the sun does balloon up, life on Mars will not be possible either.

Sorry for the off-topic

 

[sperkin]

I paid $5k for EAP but wish I waited and just get AP for free. Nav on AP is not great and auto lane change is not great either. Both are not aggressive enough to be used where there’s traffic which is 99% of my driving.

I don’t think FSD will ever come out given that Smart Summon took a year to make and it’s awful.

With that said, I didn’t purchase FSD post purchase because I’m a gambler and hope Tesla makes it work in the next couple of years.

 

[Fernand]

@sperkin, interesting to hear that it's not aggressive enough for you. There's no substitute as yet for a humanoid with a few cups of coffee pumping for kamikaze sprints. But for me and (apparently) many others that's not a daily necessity. In regular Americano driving we mostly go with the flow, and current NOA in MadMax mode is pretty damned useful.

And when you say "FSD will never come out" I would counter that we already have FSD, it just gets smarter and more complete as we go. You're also not giving humans much credit. I was amazed to see those SpaceX boosters return to their launch pads. Were you betting that a multi-core PC with a 4K video camera and display would never fit it your shirt pocket?

It's not for everyone, but for those of us who hope to keep their M3 for years, it's a rational move to buy "FSD" to continue the adventure with the next generation 3.X hardware and firmware.
.

 

[willow_hiller]

New I paid $5k for EAP but wish I waited and just get AP for free.

To be fair, they raised the prices of all cars by $2,000 when they included AP standard. And if you paid $5k for EAP chances are good you got the full $7,500 Federal credit!

 

[sperkin]

To be fair, they raised the prices of all cars by $2,000 when they included AP standard. And if you paid $5k for EAP chances are good you got the full $7,500 Federal credit!

Not sure, even with $7,500 incentive, I think it’s still cheaper to buy now. I don’t care. Tesla made up for it.

If I would to buy a Model Y, I’m just going for the free AP. AP is very very nice. Not perfect but it’s close. Only complaint is that it can’t see 18 wheelers changing lanes. It doesn’t know the trailer follows the cab.

Can’t wait for smart summon and Nav-on-AP to get there. Hope next year the car will take to me work and home without much of my attention.

 

[tvad]

I wish the AP system would stop representing our garage door as a bus. That’d be nice.