I saw go for it now and already ordered one for myself. I think the price cuts and tax credits will keep demand high. When a new model is released, they will raise the price of it and could do a small price drop on the old model to clear inventory. They won't have the new battery cells for the model 3 anytime soon, so any changes this year will be cosmetic and features, but no major overhauls.
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Buy Model 3 Now or Wait? [jan 2023]
- Thread starter tclayton26
- Start date
get it now if you are eligible for the tax credit... i'm betting the tax credit will be cut in half or gone completely after/in march when the govt gets its act together. 44k + options/taxes/registration/etc minus 7500 'could' get you under 40k... doubtful that you'd find a comparable ev or any ICE vehicle at that price point... good luck
Hey folks! New to the forum and I'm looking to buy the Model 3 RWD though I am skeptic about waiting until the Model 3 and Model Y upgrades (project Highland). Has anyone seen price changes when Tesla upgrades its models? I am wandering if there are any historical data with price changes out there.
Also I guess when they will put into production the upgraded Model 3 then you will no longer be able to order the old one unless there is a stock (which I assume is rare nowadays). Is my assumption valid?
Also I guess when they will put into production the upgraded Model 3 then you will no longer be able to order the old one unless there is a stock (which I assume is rare nowadays). Is my assumption valid?
LiamPope
Member
I had similar considerations to yourself and the OP. I actually ordered a new M3 RWD October last year which was due to be delivered in a few weeks from now. But after ordering, as I familiarised myself with the Tesla scene, and specifically rumours about the M3, I questioned if I should receive the order or cancel/postpone and wait for USS replacement, maybe HW4, maybe this 'Highland' refresh, a price drop, etc.
I wasn't in any rush to buy, so I could be patient, but decided if I'm happy with what the car is now then get it, or I'll always be waiting for the next rumoured upgrade. Also, with Tesla I learned there's always a chance the car gets worse rather than better - maybe the 'Highland' refresh would be nothing more than making it cheaper for Tesla to make, and quite possibly adding a stupid yoke and removing steering column stalks, maybe further downgrades too. Also, I was never that into all the autonomous driving tech - I mainly wanted a good EV to mostly drive myself, so didn't place much importance on rumours of HW4, radar coming back, new cameras, etc.
Then I had an even better idea! Jumped into a 1 year old used car!
Mint condition, only 20,000 km and a LR AWD for the same money the new RWD was gonna cost me. Round steering wheel, with stalks, and USS! Couldn't be happier.To your specific questions - to my knowledge (which isn't that extensive) Tesla pricing follows the market and/or Elon's whim/strategy rather than upgrades in spec, even major 'facelifts'. So upgrades don't automatically mean the price will go up, but you never know. Also, I would expect most/all details of the 'Highland' facelift to be revealed/leaked before it is impossible to order or get from new inventory the old model. If you're willing to go nearly new then absolutely you can still get the old model if you don't fancy the new changes. Either way you're still likely to have the choice.
pdx_m3s
Active Member
Tesla hasn’t really given Model 3 owners a compelling reason to upgrade yet. Hoping this changes in 2023 or 2024.
Ordinarily I'd say dont wait as there will always be something new just on the horizon. However, the HW3 computer is about to be replaced with HW4 and Tesla have so far said they are not going to do any upgrades, and this is a big step up in the (potential) capabilities of the car. Watch for HW4 on the S/X first with 3/Y following a few months later is my guess.
pdx_m3s
Active Member
The pricing action on Model 3 is reminiscent of right before Tesla launched the refresh S/X. A new model will likely be announced, but it will cost more.
Gauss Guzzler
Safety Score = 42
Leasing any brand is almost always a terrible idea. Many people are fooled into thinking that the lower monthly payments translate into lower costs and/or that the lack of ownership translates into lack of commitment, but the exact opposite is generally true for both. First, automakers know the appeal of low monthly payments so they structure the deal for a higher overall cost - if they didn't, more people would lease and automaker profits would be further deferred. Second, a lease is the deepest and most permanent commitment a person can make to a car. Surprisingly, many people get this backwards and think that ownership is actually some sort of commitment, which of course it is not -- leases are the only common contracts that fully commit you to a car.
Yes, there are some potential advantages to leasing: Reduced taxes in certain rare situations, and an effectively "locked-in" depreciation cost which might reduce your losses if the automaker grossly misjudged the depreciation rate. But the chances of you being a better predictor of a car's depreciation rate than the team of financial analysts calculating the lease terms are slim.
Yes, there are some potential advantages to leasing: Reduced taxes in certain rare situations, and an effectively "locked-in" depreciation cost which might reduce your losses if the automaker grossly misjudged the depreciation rate. But the chances of you being a better predictor of a car's depreciation rate than the team of financial analysts calculating the lease terms are slim.
But I don’t intend to keep the lease for the entire duration, I’d transfer it to someone else after the new updated models are out. To me, I don’t care so much about the monthly payment amount. I guess the advantage of this is that I don’t have to go through the hassle of buying a car then selling it a few months to a year later. Plus, once HW4 comes out, the models with HW3 will drastically decrease in value, so if I bought now I probably would lose more money in the long run.
comanchepilot
Member
If you're like me - and didn't buy either EAP or FSD - none of the HW4 or sensor BS matters one whit - it was never going to be part of your decision anyway.
I bought the M3P to have a fun, tossable car that's fun to DRIVE - not be driven around like Ms. Daisy. Ultrasonic sensors are irrelevant to me - I LOOK with my eyes before I change lanes - I'm not going to 'summon' my vehicle from a tight parking space because the clowns on either side of me will not likely have it and will ding the hell out of my doors getting in and out of THEIR cars. Thus, I'm not going to park in that space anyway.
Since I'm gonna hold the vehicle until at least the full battery warranty expires - future resale value doesn't matter to me since in 8 years they'll all be worth nothing anyway. If somehow it gets into a wreck I'm going to want to replace it essentially - and a 2023 blue / white Performance is pretty much a blue / white performance and it'll cost the same to replace as what I get from a carrier since once the find out I'm a lawyer the BS stops and I find a vehicle and tell them what the cost of that vehicle is - time to pay.
Thus - if I don't have FSD or EAP why does any of this matter? To me, it doesn't.
And - Leasing makes no sense. The financial cost is much higher than buying - if you can pay cash for a car then your total overall cost is lower than any financing option unless they give you zero percent - like on my F150 from 2019. I kept my CJ7 for 20 years - kept my 911 for almost 8 - kept my used F150 for 7 - I tend to find a vehicle and keep it. The only one I kept less than 2 years was a used Mini Cooper Countryman- it just didn't work for our family.
I bought the M3P to have a fun, tossable car that's fun to DRIVE - not be driven around like Ms. Daisy. Ultrasonic sensors are irrelevant to me - I LOOK with my eyes before I change lanes - I'm not going to 'summon' my vehicle from a tight parking space because the clowns on either side of me will not likely have it and will ding the hell out of my doors getting in and out of THEIR cars. Thus, I'm not going to park in that space anyway.
Since I'm gonna hold the vehicle until at least the full battery warranty expires - future resale value doesn't matter to me since in 8 years they'll all be worth nothing anyway. If somehow it gets into a wreck I'm going to want to replace it essentially - and a 2023 blue / white Performance is pretty much a blue / white performance and it'll cost the same to replace as what I get from a carrier since once the find out I'm a lawyer the BS stops and I find a vehicle and tell them what the cost of that vehicle is - time to pay.
Thus - if I don't have FSD or EAP why does any of this matter? To me, it doesn't.
And - Leasing makes no sense. The financial cost is much higher than buying - if you can pay cash for a car then your total overall cost is lower than any financing option unless they give you zero percent - like on my F150 from 2019. I kept my CJ7 for 20 years - kept my 911 for almost 8 - kept my used F150 for 7 - I tend to find a vehicle and keep it. The only one I kept less than 2 years was a used Mini Cooper Countryman- it just didn't work for our family.
Waiting for HW4 is not worth it, IMO. All the things that would take advantage of it are way, way off. True FSD is still a pipe dream that's years away from having any practical value.
comanchepilot
Member
FSD will likely be ruled out of existence in many places since its just not ready for prime time. It may be ready for PT 'one day' but I cannot imagine paying [and financing at any interest rate] the cost of FSD when it doesn't work.
Wasn't tesla required in California to put the money paid for FSD in escrow until it delivered a working product?
And didn't Elon mention that they were going to be using visual [cameras] sources for the FSD and EAP systems? That rules out Tesla bringing back the USS. . .
pdx_m3s
Active Member
pdx_m3s
Active Member
maclean525
Member
I suspect what's going to happen is Tesla's project highland will be phase 1 of getting the Model 3 lower in price, less features, less performance. They will move that car (SR) to sub 35k as the entry-level vehicle and position the Y as the midrange vehicle in their lineup. The M3P might stick around but I think the M3LR might not be long for this world. Project highland will NOT be an upgrade so waiting will just get you a car with less features, cheaper made etc.
I might be 100% wrong with this but reading all the tea leaves this is what I suspect is going to happen.
I might be 100% wrong with this but reading all the tea leaves this is what I suspect is going to happen.
