Buy Model 3 with intent to trade for Model Y - is this crazy?

[ewoodrick]

If you had gotten a Model 3 last year, then it wouldn't have been as bad of an idea. But getting one today for only maybe a year and a half is going to probably mean a significant loss. The Model 3 should be fine for 2 adults and 2 kids and realistic luggage. Two dogs would be too much though, probably even in the Model Y.

If you are going to get the Model 3, then be able to justify your purchase on it today and that you will keep it for 3+ years.

And it may be better to bank a little money for college funds than lose it on a car.

 

[MXWing]

I very much agree with this. The $35k SR M3 should have fairly low depreciation. A significant fraction of the cost of a SR M3 is the battery and motors. Those things are valuable, and since Tesla does such a good job at preventing batteries from degrading they really shouldn't depreciate very much over 2-3 years.

Yes. Look at Leaf resale values.

I’m sure i3 drivers were also excited about getting one at 50% MSRP. "Only" 26,000 instead of 52,000.

Watch the joy turn into ashes in their mouth when they realize its:

1.) Still an i3
2.) Hard to find a sucker to take it off their hands.
3.) Realize the horror that it looks like it is giving birth to another car.

 

[mact3333]

I was in your shoes 3 weeks ago and did exactly that. I had my deposit on model Y first but after driving the model 3 I ended buying it knowing I'd sell it in 2 years when Y comes out.

But I made sure I got a great deal and got 6500K off of msrp new on dual long range...this way the depreciation isn't nearly as bad when I sell in 2 years.

I am loving this car so much now I am looking for a perf model 3 to keep for longterm and my wife after driving my car loves it too so she would take my Y when it comes out in 2 years.

 

[jazzer]

I have bought a Model SR with the purpose of selling it in 2 years for 25K. Will put that towards the Y.

Math worked out to 250 per month of ownership for me factoring all taxes and fees.

The math made so much sense I just bought it and then told my wife after the fact.

There’s not much money a 35K SR that is actually an SR+ can lose.

You will lose more than the cost of an entire Model 3SR if you dropped a top of the line S/X Performance in 24 months.

There is no better deal than this. Not even the lowest priced CPO S.

Interesting. I thought the SR was not available for purchase any longer? So, your saying you got an SR that is basically an SR+ for 35K? Tell me more...

 

[Munka]

Just to make my head spin a bit more, I've also considered getting a CPO MS given the hatch and additional room. However, I am turned off by the sheer size of that car.

Any advice/insights would be much appreciated! Many thanks.

I drive an S, partly for the same reasons (practical large family car). Autopilot does a lot to alleviate size issues on highways and when parking (when autopark offers itself up, which isn't every time). Also the all round ultrasonic sensors with great visual and numerical indication on the screen help passing poorly parked cars and parking in general.

It is a very wide car, but it really is a sexy beast compared to the 3 and Y. If you drive a lot of narrow roads that is the only time I'd genuinely be concerned.

 

[MXWing]

Interesting. I thought the SR was not available for purchase any longer? So, your saying you got an SR that is basically an SR+ for 35K? Tell me more...

It's simple my friend. Walk into a Tesla sales center or call Tesla and tell them you want the 35K SR. It's an off menu item not for sale on the website.

As of right now - all SR cars are SR+ cars in both interior and software. However you must understand, that the SR+ software can be taken away at any time and you must be prepared for and accept that possibility.

Good luck, let us know if you have any problems.

Since the car is off menu - I would hurry and not delay.

 

[BerTX]

I'm on the list for a Model Y, but I'm planning to buy a "CPO" Model S sometime soon. For my needs, the trunk of the Model 3 is awful. I also like the idea of free supercharging for used cars sold by Tesla. I think the size of the Model S will be manageable for me. I can use the extra space!

Just to clarify, Tesla does not give free Supercharging to the used cars they sell. Some of the used cars they sell have free Supercharging, no matter who sells them (those ordered before 1/15/2017), but Tesla does not magically give every used car they sell free Supercharging. If they did, I'd buy one.

 

[dww12]

As a relative newbie to Tesla (and EVs for that matter) I am hoping for some words of wisdom on my current predicament and maybe a much needed injection of reality and/ or practicality.

I recently decided I was going to trade in my Mini Clubman for a Tesla and originally planned to get a M3. However, with two kids and two dogs, the hatch-less M3 seems less attractive than initially thought -- particularly to my wife. After doing some reading on the MY, it seems that would ultimately be the best fit for us, but I hate the idea of waiting 2+ years to get into a Tesla. So, I am considering moving forward with buying a M3 even though there is a good chance that I will be trading it in after a relatively short period for a new MY and losing a fair amount of money in depreciation in the process. My wife (always the voice of reason) thinks this is crazy. I am wondering if there are others out there who are considering this (which might make me feel less impulsive) or who have other opinions. While I see her point, I also feel like it is possible that we may stick with the M3 as we currently have a VW station wagon, which serves as the family vehicle for trips and for carting the dogs around.

Just to make my head spin a bit more, I've also considered getting a CPO MS given the hatch and additional room. However, I am turned off by the sheer size of that car.

Any advice/insights would be much appreciated! Many thanks.

Buy the M3, get the fed credit now. In 2 years trade in or put the M3 in the Tesla network. There is a chance the car actually appreciates in value if the TN actually happens.

 

[sandange]

Has anyone on TMC tested this lift kit out yet?

Here's a link to Tesla Owners forum posting on the lift kit.

MPP 2″ Suspension Lift Kit

 

[jazzer]

It's simple my friend. Walk into a Tesla sales center or call Tesla and tell them you want the 35K SR. It's an off menu item not for sale on the website.

As of right now - all SR cars are SR+ cars in both interior and software. However you must understand, that the SR+ software can be taken away at any time and you must be prepared for and accept that possibility.

Good luck, let us know if you have any problems.

Since the car is off menu - I would hurry and not delay.

Many thanks. My sales contact here states that SR gets 220miles on a single charge, has no immersive sound system, and no music streaming service or live traffic updates and does not come with the base autopilot software. Does this sound correct? I’d seen some posts about no heated seats in SR, but sounds like that just refers to rear seats. If not, that would be a deal breaker for me in MA.

While I am an audiophile, I haven’t seen enough raving reviews of the immersive sound to convince me to spend the extra bucks. The only thing holding me back from the SR is the slightly reduced range, which might come in handy in the MA winter. Don’t think I need AP at this point. If I end up trading in for a Y in a few years, I might reconsider then. Overall, the SR is sounding like a pretty good deal for my particular situation.

 

[MXWing]

Many thanks. My sales contact here states that SR gets 220miles on a single charge, has no immersive sound system, and no music streaming service or live traffic updates and does not come with the base autopilot software. Does this sound correct? I’d seen some posts about no heated seats in SR, but sounds like that just refers to rear seats. If not, that would be a deal breaker for me in MA.

While I am an audiophile, I haven’t seen enough raving reviews of the immersive sound to convince me to spend the extra bucks. The only thing holding me back from the SR is the slightly reduced range, which might come in handy in the MA winter. Don’t think I need AP at this point. If I end up trading in for a Y in a few years, I might reconsider then. Overall, the SR is sounding like a pretty good deal for my particular situation.

As of today, the SR is still an SR+ so it has 240 miles base “maximum” range. That could go down to 220 though “maximum”.

I put maximum because you won’t get that much. My rough rule of thumb on if an SR is suitable for you is:

1.) You can setup charging at your home and your round trip daily driving is less than 120 miles.

2.) Your superchargers are 150 miles or less away from your planned travel routes.

LR might be 225 and 225 for the above.

 

[TJtv]

It's simple my friend. Walk into a Tesla sales center or call Tesla and tell them you want the 35K SR. It's an off menu item not for sale on the website.

As of right now - all SR cars are SR+ cars in both interior and software. However you must understand, that the SR+ software can be taken away at any time and you must be prepared for and accept that possibility.

Good luck, let us know if you have any problems.

Since the car is off menu - I would hurry and not delay.

If I had an SR I would probably avoid all software updates unless some REALLY compelling feature came along.

 

[Retaw]

Many thanks. My sales contact here states that SR gets 220miles on a single charge, has no immersive sound system, and no music streaming service or live traffic updates and does not come with the base autopilot software. Does this sound correct? I’d seen some posts about no heated seats in SR, but sounds like that just refers to rear seats. If not, that would be a deal breaker for me in MA.

While I am an audiophile, I haven’t seen enough raving reviews of the immersive sound to convince me to spend the extra bucks. The only thing holding me back from the SR is the slightly reduced range, which might come in handy in the MA winter. Don’t think I need AP at this point. If I end up trading in for a Y in a few years, I might reconsider then. Overall, the SR is sounding like a pretty good deal for my particular situation.

SR+ doesn't have music streaming service or live traffic updates either. And assuming SR is limiting all cells to 90%... That's basically equivalent to SR+. To protect the battery, I can't imagine myself charging SR+ to 100% except in the most rare cases, while will do often on SR.
If it's just 2 years for you I would say go for the SR. On the other hand for a longer ownership in MA I would actually suggest LR RWD if no need for AP.

 

[afadeev]

Buy the M3, get the fed credit now. In 2 years trade in or put the M3 in the Tesla network. There is a chance the car actually appreciates in value if the TN actually happens.

Yeah, right, when pigs fly in formation.
If Tesla itself though the car was going to appreciate, it's residual values on leases would be greater than the 45% after 3 years it prices into Model 3 leases!!

With a higher residual and lower monthly payment, leased Tesla would be flying off inventory lots.
Except that Tesla doesn't believe the cars will appreciate in value, but rather, deprecate by more than half in 3 years.
Money talks, BS walks.

BTW, the credit is already 1/2 of $7.5K it used to be last year.
By the time Model Y sees the light of day, expect it to drop to $0.

a

 

[Retaw]

Yeah, right, when pigs fly in formation.
If Tesla itself though the car was going to appreciate, it's residual values on leases would be greater than the 45% after 3 years it prices into Model 3 leases!!

With a higher residual and lower monthly payment, leased Tesla would be flying off inventory lots.
Except that Tesla doesn't believe the cars will appreciate in value, but rather, deprecate by more than half in 3 years.
Money talks, BS walks.

BTW, the credit is already 1/2 of $7.5K it used to be last year.
By the time Model Y sees the light of day, expect it to drop to $0.

a

Exactly! If Tesla doesn't have confidence in their network I can't either. 60% residual isn't uncommon in the industry and if they have that, there can be much more owners and also a lot credibility to their network.

 

[mediaboy]

Leasing is the worst option for a Tesla. I'd buy a SR and take advantage of all the current state and federal rebates. Even if you sell in 2 years it shouldnt depreciate too heavily after rebates which will be cut ($3750 fed rebate is gone this year) and likely the SR Model at the 35k price may be killed off or stripped of it's current premium features. The current SR is basically a SR+ with some software limitations. MXWing had a great thread about it.

That being said, I believe the Y isn't all much bigger than a 3. If you need space, don't settle and get a used X. Will have more storage space for your family and they will thank you for it. If you do contractor work look to see if you may qualify for section 179, even a new X can be had near the price of a loaded Model 3.

If you lease vehicle how are you not taking advantage of the tax credit? If you configure a vehicle and select leasing they are clearly showing the cost of the vehicle minus the current tax credit and also gas savings. Your monthly lease payment is lower due to the tax credit. Lessors realize the tax benefit immediately instead of waiting till filling season .

 

[Leafdriver333]

As of today, the SR is still an SR+ so it has 240 miles base “maximum” range. That could go down to 220 though “maximum”.

I put maximum because you won’t get that much. My rough rule of thumb on if an SR is suitable for you is:

1.) You can setup charging at your home and your round trip daily driving is less than 120 miles.

2.) Your superchargers are 150 miles or less away from your planned travel routes.

LR might be 225 and 225 for the above.

How is that?
120 / 220 = .55
225/325 = .70

 

[turtlesz]

If you lease vehicle how are you not taking advantage of the tax credit? If you configure a vehicle and select leasing they are clearly showing the cost of the vehicle minus the current tax credit and also gas savings. Your monthly lease payment is lower due to the tax credit. Lessors realize the tax benefit immediately instead of waiting till filling season .

Not with a Tesla. Tesla will use the $3750 to raise the residual value. Traditionally Tesla would set the residual to be low and used the tax credit to inflate the residual meaning the buyer never truly see's the full amount. We had leased a ultracheap BMW i3 before and it's true that other manufacturer sometimes give the full tax credit up front for people who lease making it enticing. The new lease is better compared to the older one but its still best to buy for most. If you lease you need to do a term of 30 months or longer to qualify for the $2500 state rebate. If you buy you get all the rebates including the full $3750 if you qualify. The finance rate is 5.79% for the SR+ and a super high 8.33% for the SR. Also as of now you can't even purchase the car after term is done. Attached a link with a little bit more details.

Breaking Down Tesla's New $399/Month Model 3 (In-Depth Analysis)

 

[gilscales]

I would get a model 3 ASAP. We could all die within 2 years.

Wait........I thought we had 12?

 

[MXWing]

How is that?
120 / 220 = .55
225/325 = .70

I haven’t built exact mathematical models because my driving is solidly within two standard deviations of any means so I don’t have to think or plan hard for my trips.
Not in the Model 3 anyways. The SR+ is far more efficient than a 75KW Model X even.

While numbers look arbitrary, it’s based on “progressive risks”.

The more capacity you have the bigger risks you can take when driving before charging from both absolute and relative percentage terms.

Like on paper the X 60D has a 100 percent success rate of getting from supercharger to supercharger based on capacity of battery and and supercharger spacing.

Real world driving puts it at only 50 percent if one wants to drive at fast speeds. You are forced to cut your driving speed to make it from A to B. This was going I believe from Barstow to Primm in 2017. Additional superchargers built since then gives you less anxiety when finding a stop.

The X 75D goes up to 95 percent under same conditions despite what appears to not be much of an increase in kw capacity.

You also need to charge fuller for SR and spend more time per stop charging as the SC curve ramp hits harder on the SR vs LR.

The economic equivalent example is a 10% income tax impacts a person making 10k more than the same 10% tax for someone making 100K.