Buy Model S until M3 arrives. Am I crazy?

[Fiver]

I bought a loaded CPO Model S for what I planned to spend on my Model 3. It doesn't have autopilot, but currently for my minimal driving I don't need it. I plan on trading it in for a nice Model 3 (or perhaps Model Y) in a few years.

 

[dckiwi]

Thanks everyone for the feedback!

After reading that AP2.0 hardware is just around the corner for the Model S, I decided to wait until at least Spring. If I do buy a Model S then, it'll be for the long haul (forget trading in for the M3 in two years, you guys have talked me out of that nonsense).

That said, today my Tesla dealer let me know that they're currently waiving the $1,200 destination and doc fee if I order by the end of the week. It's not much, but it makes the Model S even more tempting. Anyone else ever see this offer? Wonder if they're trying to move cars ahead of the AP refresh....

I also really like the CPO idea. Although based on the prices I've seen I feel like I can get a brand new S60 for the same price as most of the CPOs (once you factor in federal tax credit).

 

[Garlan Garner]

You didn't get your gift yet? Maybe someone swiped it?

Yes, priority for employees, then current owners... in order of reservation, then everyone else: Reserving your Model 3

"In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region."​

Yes, I received a gift. My only point was that there was supposed to be a gift for those who waited in line. I haven't seen that gift. I received the one that "Everyone" that made a reservation received.

Should I have stayed at home and reserved like everyone else?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Thanks everyone for the feedback!

After reading that AP2.0 hardware is just around the corner for the Model S, I decided to wait until at least Spring. If I do buy a Model S then, it'll be for the long haul (forget trading in for the M3 in two years, you guys have talked me out of that nonsense).

That said, today my Tesla dealer let me know that they're currently waiving the $1,200 destination and doc fee if I order by the end of the week. It's not much, but it makes the Model S even more tempting. Anyone else ever see this offer? Wonder if they're trying to move cars ahead of the AP refresh....

I also really like the CPO idea. Although based on the prices I've seen I feel like I can get a brand new S60 for the same price as most of the CPOs (once you factor in federal tax credit).

I agree with you 100%.

If I could rent the MS for 2 years...then fine. However having to sell a base model MS would be a nightmare.

 

[Az_Rael]

I also really like the CPO idea. Although based on the prices I've seen I feel like I can get a brand new S60 for the same price as most of the CPOs (once you factor in federal tax credit).

Yeah, the CPO 60s are way overpriced at Tesla right now. I am now looking at 85s for the same amount of money. I get the faster charging (and better performance) that way, even if I don't technically need the extra range.

There was a period where several cars were being sold in the low 40s before the last "purge" but you have to be quick to snag one of those deals. It's worth watching with one of the third party services if you are interested. The well priced cars are usually gone in a matter of minutes.

 

[Gremlin]

No not crazy. Can buy mine still under warranty. I want a 90D No auto pilot but I like to drive myself thank you

 

[CarlitoDoc]

Mmmm, I hate to be the "debbie downer" BUT keep in mind other manufacturers may have EVs comparable to the Model S by the time (in Elon's Time Clock) the Model 3 comes out. Serious competition = lower resale value.

 

[Fiver]

Mmmm, I hate to be the "debbie downer" BUT keep in mind other manufacturers may have EVs comparable to the Model S by the time (in Elon's Time Clock) the Model 3 comes out. Serious competition = lower resale value.

But no other manufacturer will have the supercharger network. For the foreseeable future, that is Tesla's ace in the hole. (Even if it is overloaded with Model 3's when they come out).

 

[xav-]

I put down my M3 deposit online the day after the reveal. Who knows when I'll get my M3 but I'm going with sometime mid-2018.

I'd like an interim EV to hold me over. Initially I looked at the BMW i3. It's an ugly little car but no worse than any of the other non-Tesla EVs. I can get a 24 month lease now for a total cost of ~$11,000 (downpayment + all monthly payments).

But then I started thinking about buying a base Model S60 - only upgrade would be the pano roof. All in this would come to $70,500 - $7,500 tax credit = $63,000.

Now here's the question. Of course no one knows what the MS resale value will be in two years, but would it be reasonable to get ~$50,000 for this car? Assume low mileage (15k) and I keep it in great condition.

If so, then my total cost of ownership for the MS would be $13,000 over two years - only a little more than the stubby i3.

I'm also thinking MS resale values will be helped when the Tesla federal tax credit expires.

Am I being way to optimistic expecting $50k for a $63k two-year-old Model S? Would love everyone's feedback.

And yes, I know I'm being wasteful. I know I should just hang on to my ICE for another two years. But YOLO and all that.

I think you can get a better deal on the I3. I saw people getting crazy deals on it last month and early this month after BMW raised the residual value to something like 70 percent+ For 24 month. Your figure of $11k seems high. I can even find a nicely loaded demo 3 series for less than that.

I think you are way over optimistic with the resale value of the S. I am personally putting a net cost of $35,000 of owning a model S over the next 3 years. There is no way you are going to pay $13k in 2 years. I think it's going to be closer to $20k best case scenario.

 

[xav-]

Thanks everyone for the feedback!

After reading that AP2.0 hardware is just around the corner for the Model S, I decided to wait until at least Spring. If I do buy a Model S then, it'll be for the long haul (forget trading in for the M3 in two years, you guys have talked me out of that nonsense).

That said, today my Tesla dealer let me know that they're currently waiving the $1,200 destination and doc fee if I order by the end of the week. It's not much, but it makes the Model S even more tempting. Anyone else ever see this offer? Wonder if they're trying to move cars ahead of the AP refresh....

I also really like the CPO idea. Although based on the prices I've seen I feel like I can get a brand new S60 for the same price as most of the CPOs (once you factor in federal tax credit).

Destination fee waived? Nice.

Also you have the $1k referral bonus.

 

[S'toon]

Mmmm, I hate to be the "debbie downer" BUT keep in mind other manufacturers may have EVs comparable to the Model S by the time (in Elon's Time Clock) the Model 3 comes out. Serious competition = lower resale value.

Keep in mind other manufacturers may not have EVs comparable to the Model S by the time the Model 3 comes out. Especially considering the Model S keeps improving, and they're trying to build cars comparable to today's S. Also they don't seem to be trying all that hard.

 

[erthquake]

Mmmm, I hate to be the "debbie downer" BUT keep in mind other manufacturers may have EVs comparable to the Model S by the time (in Elon's Time Clock) the Model 3 comes out. Serious competition = lower resale value.

Besides the supercharger network, Tesla will have far more batteries available than any other company. The Model 3 will probably lower Model S resale values more than any other car.

 

[PtG62901]

There is an interesting assumption in this thread that the Model 3 will drive as well as a Model S. It would really surprise me if it did. I assume the Model 3 will be great, fast, fun, a complete hit, but I don't expect it to be as refined as a MS. I figure the Accord vs Civic contrast is likely. I don't think most people will willingly exchange a Model S for Model 3 straight up.

What do you think?

 

[JeffK]

There is an interesting assumption in this thread that the Model 3 will drive as well as a Model S. It would really surprise me if it did. I assume the Model 3 will be great, fast, fun, a complete hit, but I don't expect it to be as refined as a MS. I figure the Accord vs Civic contrast is likely. I don't think most people will willingly exchange a Model S for Model 3 straight up.

What do you think?

Well, there's really not a good reason why it wouldn't.
The engineers during the reveal were commenting about the tighter turning radius, I'd expect the suspension will either be the same or better than the Model S due to the ability to design from the ground up with everything they've learned from the Model S/X.

At the end of the day tires can make a difference, but you're still going to have a smooth electric motor and perhaps improved steering.

 

[PtG62901]

Well, there's really not a good reason why it wouldn't.
The engineers during the reveal were commenting about the tighter turning radius, I'd expect the suspension will either be the same or better than the Model S due to the ability to design from the ground up with everything they've learned from the Model S/X.

At the end of the day tires can make a difference, but you're still going to have a smooth electric motor and perhaps improved steering.

I'm an older guy, suspensions really haven't improved that much in the time I have been driving. Shorter wheel base brings tighter turning and harsher ride, that is a given. Amount of insulation and sound proofing makes it quieter, which is about design and money. Shorter turning radius, easier to park, better visibility forward, sure. At some point, the cost of the basic parts has to effect the car both in performance and longevity. The parts of the Model 3 have to be cheaper, don't they? I suspect you aren't old enough, but if you were ever in a 1987 Honda and 1987 GM, the part quality was strikingly different. It wasn't that GM wanted to suck, they just couldn't afford to spend $2.50 on a door handle, because of the way their costs were structured and International money rates.

I don't think the assumption that the Model 3 will drive as well or better then the Model S is a given. Accord vs Civic is the likely comparison in my mind. Some people like the Civic ride better, and that is great.

 

[cbotnyse]

Let's consider a few facts before you think about resale value.

The 100 kWh Model S is rumoured to be released very soon. Just got approval in Europe
Tesla Model S and X with 100 kWh battery pack and ‘~380 miles of range’ approved by European authority

Second, starting either this year or next, the cars will come with the necessary autopilot 2.0 hardware.

Both of these things make a current model S virtually obsolete in some buyers minds. Especially when considering the value they could get from a Model 3 for the same price when it's released.

damn this post is killing me. I am a M3 res holder and looking to pull trigger on a loaded Model S for $45K. The kicker is its a 2013 60kWh. I have to think that car will be worth sub-30K in a couple years.

 

[JeffK]

At some point, the cost of the basic parts has to effect the car both in performance and longevity. The parts of the Model 3 have to be cheaper, don't they?

Not necessarily. There are a few items in the Model S that are unavoidably expensive, the aluminum chassis/frame and the battery. The battery is most likely the most expensive component in the car. By mass producing a physically larger cell they can make the per cell cost cheaper and use less cells at the same time.

They've mentioned in the press that the current cost is not more than $190/kWh. Let's look at the 75 kWh battery on the Model S, this means this cost is around $14,250. Analysts are suggesting said by 2020 with the ramp up of the gigafactory and these new cells they'd be approaching $100/kWh or less. that's $7500 for the same capacity battery. A savings or nearly $7000 without affecting the quality of any of the existing parts (assuming the redesign the Model S battery to use 21700 cells).

Since aluminum is rather costly they've decided to make many of the parts in the Model 3 out of steel. With some of the newer steel alloys and metallurgical techniques there exists some pretty lightweight and strong types of steel which have the cost benefits of steel and won't add a ton of weight allowing the Model 3 to still be lighter weight than the Model S. So, even with this you aren't sacrificing quality of other parts by saving money.

The drive inverters for the Model 3 are totally redesigned offering over 300 kW and a greater efficiency meaning increased range. Mass produced, these become cost effective and you still haven't sacrificed quality on anything else. If anything you've made things better.

There's a lot that can be done to make manufacturing easier and lower costs without having to sacrifice quality, performance, and longevity. The Model 3 basically makes or breaks Tesla, it's the culmination of all previous efforts. It's even more important than that, because it shows the world what EVs could/should be capable of (especially if it sports full autonomy). This is probably the most important car the world has seen in decades...

 

[Garlan Garner]

Keep in mind other manufacturers may not have EVs comparable to the Model S by the time the Model 3 comes out. Especially considering the Model S keeps improving, and they're trying to build cars comparable to today's S. Also they don't seem to be trying all that hard.

I would have to agree especially seeing that it takes 2 years to put an EV together for the "big guns".

 

[Model 3]

They've mentioned in the press that the current cost is not more than $190/kWh. Let's look at the 75 kWh battery on the Model S, this means this cost is around $14,250. Analysts are suggesting said by 2020 with the ramp up of the gigafactory and these new cells they'd be approaching $100/kWh or less.

I do agree with most of what you say, but here you have to be more careful to separate the cell price vs the pack price (including the pack itself and electronic that goes into the pack).

A few years ago it was reported that the cell price into Tesla was at $180/kWh. The pack price at that time was estimated somewhere north of $200/kWh. The $190/kWh figure you are using is pack price, what the cell price is now is - as far as I know - unknown. I do think that the $100/kWh figure is referring to cell price - but if they can get a (sub) $100/kWh at the pack level it would be very nice

 

[JeffK]

I do agree with most of what you say, but here you have to be more careful to separate the cell price vs the pack price (including the pack itself and electronic that goes into the pack).

A few years ago it was reported that the cell price into Tesla was at $180/kWh. The pack price at that time was estimated somewhere north of $200/kWh. The $190/kWh figure you are using is pack price, what the cell price is now is - as far as I know - unknown. I do think that the $100/kWh figure is referring to cell price - but if they can get a (sub) $100/kWh at the pack level it would be very nice

Electric-car battery costs: Tesla $190 per kwh for pack, GM $145 for cells

...the battery-pack cost of the Model S today is less than $190 per kwh

Last year one analyst was suggesting that Tesla will get to a cell price of $88/kWh by later this year.