I think the shareholder letter they release after close of market might highlight all what we need to know to determine if it's truly a blowout quarter or not. If the shareholder letter doesn't clearly show it's a blowout quarter, then the conference call will expound and be extremely important cause it will give us info on how to interpret the results.
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I think the shareholder letter they release after close of market might highlight all what we need to know to determine if it's truly a blowout quarter or not. If the shareholder letter doesn't clearly show it's a blowout quarter, then the conference call will expound and be extremely important cause it will give us info on how to interpret the results.
If you bought Amazon on December 31, 1999, you would have been dead on in spotting a winner. Nevertheless, you would have seen a 92% drop in the share price over the next 2 years. It would have taken you 7.5 years to get back to your invested dollar amount, and 11 years to make a decent (8%) return.
What I am getting at is that spotting this winner (Tesla) does not mean that $145 is a good price to buy at. You may be able to buy in for 92% less ($11.4) in two years. That would be mirroring AMZN's trajectory.
My point isn't that this is the most likely scenario. It is, rather, that whatever investment strategy you chose, it should take such scenarios into account. It is good to have some dry gunpowder lying around if such opportunities present themselves.
What makes me believe that a big dip is not totally unrealistic is that the general market seems ready to crash hard. While the US recovery is anemic at best, the EU has postponed rather than solved its debt crisis (and kept undercapitalized banks). The most indebted government in the world, Japan, has gone on a borrowing spree, and China is losing growth and competitiveness. And with all this **** about to hit the fan very hard, the markets are setting all time highs. Somewhere I read a quote from a fund manager who said they were selling "everything that isn't nailed down". The smart money may have quietly left the building some time ago.
Just saying.
What I am getting at is that spotting this winner (Tesla) does not mean that $145 is a good price to buy at. You may be able to buy in for 92% less ($11.4) in two years. That would be mirroring AMZN's trajectory.
My point isn't that this is the most likely scenario. It is, rather, that whatever investment strategy you chose, it should take such scenarios into account. It is good to have some dry gunpowder lying around if such opportunities present themselves.
What makes me believe that a big dip is not totally unrealistic is that the general market seems ready to crash hard. While the US recovery is anemic at best, the EU has postponed rather than solved its debt crisis (and kept undercapitalized banks). The most indebted government in the world, Japan, has gone on a borrowing spree, and China is losing growth and competitiveness. And with all this **** about to hit the fan very hard, the markets are setting all time highs. Somewhere I read a quote from a fund manager who said they were selling "everything that isn't nailed down". The smart money may have quietly left the building some time ago.
Just saying.
Advice really can't be given or taken in these situations. There is evidence on both sides, those that do not do their own research and develop convictions will buy or sell with emotion and change of tides. Those that have cultivated the garden of TSLA understand it well. Sow what you reap, I have.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Way OTM puts are super cheap and can prevent catastrophic losses in a flash crash scenario, which is the only thing I'd be worried about. Just make sure you don't invest money that you know you need in the next couple years. I see no reason to put a majority of your money under your mattress.
Well, I bought $50K worth yesterday morning when it dipped to 142. I did the same today when it dipped to 137. I was going to be nervous if I had to buy in with the stock in the 150s, but I think at my current prices, I should be safe for the ER later today. If it is bad, I will be ready to sell tomorrow (take a small loss), and then jump back in as soon as the slide levels out.... I was planning on buying more, but my balls left the building when I read about Japan's debt, China, Europe, our sluggish economy with Obamacare about to do major damage, etc....
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
So while I agree wholeheartedly with one of you, best to leave politics parked on the side, lest the moderator for this section put you into quarantine over at Politics - Quarantine Thread.
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