-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Buy now or wait?
- Thread starter eustachio
- Start date
I would bet that the 3rd quarter or 4th quarter end of quarter sales on inventory models will be crazy. The tax credit will be gone, most likely cooling some demand. Tesla then has to pull some more demand levers to move cars. Sure the MSRP may not change, but they may become more like a regular dealer where no one smart pays MSRP. They are already moving that way with the inventory car discounts.
You are effectively dealing with a piece of technology with the car. If you want the best, wait until next year where you will decide to wait until the next year and continue the cycle.
Just like a computer, if you waited 20 years ago, you'd still wait for 20 years.
Jump in, if nothing else, you can now ride the wave of technology. My car isn't the one that I bought a year ago, it's got many more capabilities than what it came with.
That is EXACTLY the situation I was in ... My lease was also up in November.
I was able to sell my lease back to my originating dealer (*not* an early lease tradein, but an actual sale) - I had to give them the vehicle plus $1500. This let me avoid a) the $700 lease-end fee; b) the tires I knew I was going to need for lease turn-in (I was at 4/32" tread depth already - only 28k miles.) and then take advantage of the $3750 fed tax incentive; the $0 sales tax in NJ; and the $2500 price drop from Tesla.
I'm very very very very very very pleased I got out of the lease early. Couldn't imagine being happier with a vehicle than my Model 3. Waiting for my lease to end would've cost me. If nothing else, I'd be paying $700 (lease end) + $500 (used tires) = $1200 and then lose out on $1875 of the tax credit. So I net positive $1575 by moving early... *and* get to drive a Tesla!
I'd suggest taking your vehicle to Carmax and getting it appraised; see how close that offer is to the buyout on your lease. If it puts you in striking distance (and your leasing company allows sales; most do - mine was GM Financial so I know they do), sell it to highest bidder - Carmax, Tesla, or - in my case - my Cadillac dealer.
It's a convenient way to avoid lease-end fees if nothing else!
N5329K
Active Member
If you don’t need a new car why buy one? The only rationale against that is if your current car swills gasoline and you use it a lot. If so, then it definitely makes sense to ditch it now. I’m not in that situation. My monthly fuel bills are absurdly low already, so a Model 3, while cool and desirable in many ways, will save me next to nothing. As in, it will pay back the costs of installing the NEMA 14-50 (already done) in fuel savings after about two years. Maybe.
That’s how it looks to me, anyway.
Robin
That’s how it looks to me, anyway.
Robin
srs5694
Active Member
I'll begin with a question that nobody else seems to have asked (although a couple hinted at it): What sort of time frame are you considering when you say "wait?" Most of the answers seem to assume a fairly short wait, of a few weeks or at most a few months. If that's what you're considering, then you might as well keep the impending reduction of Federal tax credits (from $3750 to $1875) on June 1 and the complete elimination of them on January 1, 2020 in mind, and watch Tesla prices carefully. They change as often as most people change their socks, so knowing the range may help you spot a good time to buy when it arrives.
OTOH, you referred to "more ev competition [and] battery prices getting cheaper," which to me suggests you may be looking at a longer time frame. Battery prices have been dropping, but that effect is tiny in a weekly or monthly time frame; you need to look at a period of years before battery price drops have been a big deal. On that sort of time scale, the price of most EVs seems likely to come down; however, there is a caveat: I'm not sure that the supply of batteries will be able to keep up with demand for EVs, which may limit or eliminate price drops. Even Tesla admits that its production is limited by its battery supply, and other manufacturers seem to be having a harder time than Tesla. Hyundai and Kia, for instance, are producing so few EVs, reportedly because of battery supply problems, that their dealers are engaging in some serious price-gouging, even with the current models being limited to CARB states in the US. OTOH, battery production is increasing, so with any luck these problems will be short-lived. That's far from guaranteed, though, and the problem could get worse, particularly if EV demand rises very rapidly.
IMHO, there's enough uncertainty in the equation that it's difficult to offer advice, particularly without knowing details of your situation (your budget, what your current car is, whether you're leasing it vs. own it, whether you have payments left, what the prices of gas and electricity are in your area, how practical home charging is for you, whether you expect to be moving soon, etc.).
Great idea! I scheduled an appointment at Carmax for appraisal. Who determines the buy out value? Is it the leasing company or dealer ?
Great question!
Our current situation- we bought a brand new Prius last September, putting 5k down. If we sell it now and clear the finance, we'll net out positive about 1k, so we'll have lost 4k in about 8 months.
We're seeing avg fuel economy of 52mpg, and it's rising now as the weather gets warmer, up to 65+ on some trips!
So financially, there's no incentive to switch, even with rising gas prices, we'll actually take a $4k financial hit by swapping now.
On the other hand, more and more I dislike burning any gas. And I love the design and simplicity and performance of the 3. My kids want us to get one, I think my wife is even keen
We're moving home in September, currently we're in rented accommodation, so I can charge using 110v, but can't install a charger. I get 3 hours level 2 free charging at work each day. That would save us a bit, but Prius only costs on average $40 per month. I have another year and a half of free Toyota servicing too, so no maintenance costs.
Also, we're considering buying a house, so it probably makes sense to do that before committing to financing a Model 3. If we buy, we'll probably go with SR+. It will be our only car, and we occasionally (4-5 times a year) do long drives of > 500 miles.
My heart says buy before end June. My head says wait at least until we've bought a house. My inner accountant says keep the Prius until it's at least 3-5 years old. My inner devil says just buy a M3 today
Great question!
Our current situation- we bought a brand new Prius last September, putting 5k down. If we sell it now and clear the finance, we'll net out positive about 1k, so we'll have lost 4k in about 8 months.
We're seeing avg fuel economy of 52mpg, and it's rising now as the weather gets warmer, up to 65+ on some trips!
So financially, there's no incentive to switch, even with rising gas prices, we'll actually take a $4k financial hit by swapping now.
On the other hand, more and more I dislike burning any gas. And I love the design and simplicity and performance of the 3. My kids want us to get one, I think my wife is even keen
We're moving home in September, currently we're in rented accommodation, so I can charge using 110v, but can't install a charger. I get 3 hours level 2 free charging at work each day. That would save us a bit, but Prius only costs on average $40 per month. I have another year and a half of free Toyota servicing too, so no maintenance costs.
Also, we're considering buying a house, so it probably makes sense to do that before committing to financing a Model 3. If we buy, we'll probably go with SR+. It will be our only car, and we occasionally (4-5 times a year) do long drives of > 500 miles.
My heart says buy before end June. My head says wait at least until we've bought a house. My inner accountant says keep the Prius until it's at least 3-5 years old. My inner devil says just buy a M3 today
The house comes first... seems to be a classic financial blunder people make. House is a need ... car is a want. Not saying you cant handle both but its better to let the dust settle from house first. What if some unplanned expense pops up during the purchase or move in of house ?
It would be the leasing company. The buyout should be your remaining lease payments + the residual value of the vehicle. Who is your leasing firm? If it's GM Financial, I can show you how to get the buyout price. And then remove the sales tax from it, since you're going to be trading into a dealer (either Carmax or a traditional dealer) - you won't need to pay that sales tax, since they hold a dealer certificate.
Feel free to private-message me and I'm happy to walk you through it!
Brando
Active Member
rent your on lease ICE to a Lyft or Uber driver - or find some one in need of a little help to use your lease car.
Brando
Active Member
Surprised I don’t think people have mentioned this yet but with the tariff war going on and now costing Tesla 25% on some items, I don’t necessarily think prices will stay the same or go down. Right now interest rates are stable I think but things could change and likely for the worse.
Plus as mentioned, the Federal tax credit if you can take it will be cut in half again shortly.
Fernand
Active Member
I paid more in December than they cost now. And I'm not happy about the way the FSD upgrade price has been unpredictable. But still I don't regret it for one minute. And my son was right, if you're gonna get a Tesla get the full autopilot, it's what it's all about. And he was right. You can now have it all for $44.5K, and there are still tax credits. The car takes a voice command destination and handles all the freeway traffic all by itself, it's mind-blowing. And it drives like a Porsche 928, bat outta hell. You people who are debating alternatives are comparing apples and cucumbers, and must never have really driven one. There's nothing like it.
Possible. But there were crazy sales last quarter even with Tesla shipping to Europe. I think they normally go to the US inventory in a pinch because they can make those deliveries faster.
srs5694
Active Member
My heart says buy before end June. My head says wait at least until we've bought a house. My inner accountant says keep the Prius until it's at least 3-5 years old. My inner devil says just buy a M3 today
Yeah, I grok that! Usually my head or inner accountant wins out in such battles. When that's not the case, I usually regret the decision.
This is an excellent point. I'll add that, should you decide to wait to buy the car until you buy the house, be sure not to buy the car until you've actually closed on the house. Applying for an auto loan will negatively (but temporarily) affect your credit score, and if such a loan is granted, it will affect the bank's financial computations that determine your eligibility for a mortgage. Best to get all that stuff done before you go car shopping. As @mediaboy suggests, there's also the possibility of some big unexpected expense soon after you buy a house -- the furnace, boiler, or AC dies; the roof develops a leak; etc.
How much of a Model 3's value actually comes from China? I honestly don't know, although I do know that the main computer is assembled there and so is affected by Trump's tariffs. My Monroney sticker says that my Model 3 has 50% US or Canadian content, and Mexico is listed as the biggest single additional source, at 25%. As others have said, the reduction, and soon elimination, of the Federal tax credit is a near-certain driver of cost increase in the short term.
Countering the idea that tariffs may increase the price of a Tesla is the fact that costs on some important components, like batteries, are coming down over time. Tesla is also working to streamline their assembly process, which helps them reduce costs.
All in all, the cost of a Model 3 in, say, 2-5 years remains a big unknown. You could use that to argue to buy now, if you're afraid of increases; or to wait, if you're hoping for reductions. Overall, I'd call it a wash for the sort of "wait" time scale being discussed, but others may legitimately disagree.
Fernand
Active Member
Our other car is a Honda Accord 2007 with ~ 140k miles.
We're keeping it. The two most reliable things I have ever
owned, that get used daily, are Japanese: the Honda and a
Toto washlet. The Toto is > 30 years old and although
the LCD on its remote is faded, it works 100%, regularly.
The Honda Accord could use a paint correction, but it
has only required tires, brakes and a couple 12v batteries.
I'm hoping the Model 3 is in that league reliability-wise, it's
not impossible, if Honda can make an ICE car with all its
moving parts so good. As to Toto, they are in almost every
bathroom in Japan. In supermarkets and train stations too.
Japanese visit America and go "you smear butt w/ paper?"
That's like "you burn up precious petroleum in car??"
Get yerself at least the Model 3 ;-)
.
We're keeping it. The two most reliable things I have ever
owned, that get used daily, are Japanese: the Honda and a
Toto washlet. The Toto is > 30 years old and although
the LCD on its remote is faded, it works 100%, regularly.
The Honda Accord could use a paint correction, but it
has only required tires, brakes and a couple 12v batteries.
I'm hoping the Model 3 is in that league reliability-wise, it's
not impossible, if Honda can make an ICE car with all its
moving parts so good. As to Toto, they are in almost every
bathroom in Japan. In supermarkets and train stations too.
Japanese visit America and go "you smear butt w/ paper?"
That's like "you burn up precious petroleum in car??"
Get yerself at least the Model 3 ;-)
.
Leafdriver333
Somewhat Active Member
I have not purchased AP.
Elon said FSD price will keep going up.
Eventually Tesla will have to pay me to let me use the AP.
I love it!
