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The best and worst time to buy a Tesla is now. The longer you wait, the more features you will get. However, if you follow this process, you will never actually buy and drive a Tesla since you'll always be waiting for the next new update.
carbonx
Member
I've heard rumors that the referral program would have limited supercharging such as "1 year of free supercharging" or "1,000 credit for supercharging" or something to that extent but who knows?
I think the next "refresh" would likely be near the end of the year or early next year. The last refresh was only a year ago and it's unlikely they will make major changes during Model 3 ramp up. Most people believe it will most likely be just the interior of the car in an effort to distinguish the S more from the 3 as the waiting period dies down but you'd probably miss out on the $7,500 rebate by then.
In my opinion, the current version is pretty refined and you risk buying a less refined refresh (at least in the beginning) not to mention a loss of the $7,500 credit.
I think the next "refresh" would likely be near the end of the year or early next year. The last refresh was only a year ago and it's unlikely they will make major changes during Model 3 ramp up. Most people believe it will most likely be just the interior of the car in an effort to distinguish the S more from the 3 as the waiting period dies down but you'd probably miss out on the $7,500 rebate by then.
In my opinion, the current version is pretty refined and you risk buying a less refined refresh (at least in the beginning) not to mention a loss of the $7,500 credit.
I usually agree that the answer is buy now as updates are constant.
However, Elon claims major changes come every 12-18 months.
For me, that roughly lines up with:
* dual motor
* ap hw 1.0
* exterior refresh
* eap/fsd hw 2.0
Since I wouldn’t count hw 2.5, we are coming up on 18 months. We are also simultaneously coming up on model 3 mass production and the end of the current incentive program.
If you don’t like the idea of missing out on an overdue interior refresh (something like the new roadster design), I would hold off. If that doesn’t happen over next few months, something else will.
You could order on Jan 31st and cancel if nothing nice comes up after that.
However, Elon claims major changes come every 12-18 months.
For me, that roughly lines up with:
* dual motor
* ap hw 1.0
* exterior refresh
* eap/fsd hw 2.0
Since I wouldn’t count hw 2.5, we are coming up on 18 months. We are also simultaneously coming up on model 3 mass production and the end of the current incentive program.
If you don’t like the idea of missing out on an overdue interior refresh (something like the new roadster design), I would hold off. If that doesn’t happen over next few months, something else will.
You could order on Jan 31st and cancel if nothing nice comes up after that.
carbonx
Member
If you do decide to order before the end of the month do it on the last day. That way you increase your chance of getting the refresh (if it happens). Also, they will likely reveal a new referral program and you'll have a few days to cancel your order and switch over if it's better although I can't imagine them bringing back the $1,000 credit.
RyanS
Ka-chow
Oh boy, I feel your pain. It is sort of like do I upgrade my iphone now or wait for the "rumored" new release date. As more M3 are coming out, they have to refresh MS. Based on all the M3 reviews, M3 is as good as MS. So question is when?
If you can get some pretty deep discount and tax credit... might be ok. That's what I did in September and my wife has been very happy with her new MS.
If you can get some pretty deep discount and tax credit... might be ok. That's what I did in September and my wife has been very happy with her new MS.
Yea - tough choices. But I can tell you that, I picked up one of the last AP1.0 cars, and was miserable when AP2.0 8-camera system was all the glamor. But then for the next 12months, I was seriously enjoying my stable AP1.0, where-as, the new AP2.0 owners were waiting for updates and beta-testing. Those that leased for 2-3yrs, almost a third of their time was not having AP2.0.
What if Elon is not happy with AP2.x h/w, and adds more radars on all 4 corners, but then, the new s/w doesn't show up for another 12months and now you have awesome h/w but no s/w (and start the beta-testing cycle all over again?).
What if Elon is not happy with AP2.x h/w, and adds more radars on all 4 corners, but then, the new s/w doesn't show up for another 12months and now you have awesome h/w but no s/w (and start the beta-testing cycle all over again?).
charliepmayer
Member
I got into a circular argument with myself on this issue that lasted two months - there is no logical answer.
Friend of mine called the process "mental masturbation".
Ordered an S100D last week. Selling '14 P85.
Friend of mine called the process "mental masturbation".
Ordered an S100D last week. Selling '14 P85.
carbonx
Member
,
Yeah, I think when it comes down to it the question to ask is: If you're happy with the car, and whether you want it now or later?
I think as long as it's not a body revamp, there's no point in trying to time it.
donguanella
Member
Where are you on the budget for a Model S? If you’re towards the bottom end of the S75 it may be a good reason to buy now, too.
Total speculation but I think the entry-level S is going to get more expensive over time as they milk the high-end and high-margin variants of the Model 3.
Total speculation but I think the entry-level S is going to get more expensive over time as they milk the high-end and high-margin variants of the Model 3.
It depends on your current situation. I'd say if you can wait until the end of the year, beginning of next year, do it! Major updates are coming and you may regret your decision. Now if you need it, sure, go ahead and get one now while tax incentives and free supercharging are in place. I was on the same boat, and I've decided that I can still drive my current ICE car for another year, which is paid off, and save even more to afford the new and upcoming Model S. I expect that it will have a battery upgrade, UI to match Model 3, better sound system (matching Model 3), and overall, much better than current Model S to differentiate from Model 3. I know, decisions decisions.... Good luck! 
If the Model 3 is any indication of the future Model S, I would order now. The control stalks on the Model 3 are obnoxious; literally the worst thing about the car. I would hate to have them on the Model S.
mdk1a
Member
To be honest, I don't quite get the fascination with anticipating/guessing when the interior refresh or some sort of upgrade will happen.
We know it's not a question of if, but rather when. Regardless, you'll still be driving the best EV ever invented whether you buy it now or 3 months later. I've owned my S75D for a month now and I'm still giddy about it, but that's more due to the handling and performance of the car, all the tech that it has, and last but not least, the fact that I charge it every day and don't have to worry about running low on fuel and having to stop at the damn gas station anymore. I honestly couldn't care less if mine had the old nose-cone style fascia (I actually prefer the old-style 5 spoke rims compared to the current Slipstream model) or HW 2 vs HW2.5. The fact that I got a $1K credit and unlimited supercharging from referral, plus $7500 from Uncle Sam was just icing on the cake.
The short of it is, if you can swing it financially, and you want to do it, I'd recommend not waiting. Life is too short, just do it.
We know it's not a question of if, but rather when. Regardless, you'll still be driving the best EV ever invented whether you buy it now or 3 months later. I've owned my S75D for a month now and I'm still giddy about it, but that's more due to the handling and performance of the car, all the tech that it has, and last but not least, the fact that I charge it every day and don't have to worry about running low on fuel and having to stop at the damn gas station anymore. I honestly couldn't care less if mine had the old nose-cone style fascia (I actually prefer the old-style 5 spoke rims compared to the current Slipstream model) or HW 2 vs HW2.5. The fact that I got a $1K credit and unlimited supercharging from referral, plus $7500 from Uncle Sam was just icing on the cake.
The short of it is, if you can swing it financially, and you want to do it, I'd recommend not waiting. Life is too short, just do it.
My own preference personally would be to buy now if you absolutely need to, but otherwise prepare to wait up to a year for major changes that are likely (but, again, nothing guaranteed). Whether this applies to others depends on their personal priorities, of course.
I think there is a possibility that the rumored exterior (small facelift, lights, mirrors), interior (major change to new design) and battery upgrades (major change to Model 3 like batteries and motors) will take longer than 3-4 months. It is possible the wait will take 9-12 months or that the changes arrive piecemeal over the course of the following year or so. Then again, maybe Tesla is quicker and it comes next quarter.
But it is pretty certain that it IS coming - probably the biggest change to Model S/X since their launches - IMO, but exactly what in which steps, and in what exact timeframe, that is harder to predict given that Model 3s production woes certainly can delay things... The latest rumors / summary e.g. in this thread: Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #56
The same argument can be made the other way around: life's too short and you get to buy only so many major purchases (e.g. cars) during it. Use your buying opportunities for something that has the highest likelihood of making you overall happiest, because when you commit to one, you will miss out on another.
...which of course comes down to the personal choice of what makes you happy and what your life's situation is. People are very different on that. The best IMO we can do is provide the info that is available and then people decide for themselves.
On the free Supercharging deal, it is good to remember that it was originally supposed to run out at the end of 2016. It has now been extended several times as a deman lever over many quarters. There's a deadline, people order, then they give another deadline. It is not impossible that it would be extended again, though of course we all expect Tesla to want it to go away at some point - so perhaps "this is it". I am inclined to hope this would be the last extension and the Supercharging story would "normalize"...
I think there is a possibility that the rumored exterior (small facelift, lights, mirrors), interior (major change to new design) and battery upgrades (major change to Model 3 like batteries and motors) will take longer than 3-4 months. It is possible the wait will take 9-12 months or that the changes arrive piecemeal over the course of the following year or so. Then again, maybe Tesla is quicker and it comes next quarter.
But it is pretty certain that it IS coming - probably the biggest change to Model S/X since their launches - IMO, but exactly what in which steps, and in what exact timeframe, that is harder to predict given that Model 3s production woes certainly can delay things... The latest rumors / summary e.g. in this thread: Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #56
The same argument can be made the other way around: life's too short and you get to buy only so many major purchases (e.g. cars) during it. Use your buying opportunities for something that has the highest likelihood of making you overall happiest, because when you commit to one, you will miss out on another.
...which of course comes down to the personal choice of what makes you happy and what your life's situation is. People are very different on that. The best IMO we can do is provide the info that is available and then people decide for themselves.
On the free Supercharging deal, it is good to remember that it was originally supposed to run out at the end of 2016. It has now been extended several times as a deman lever over many quarters. There's a deadline, people order, then they give another deadline. It is not impossible that it would be extended again, though of course we all expect Tesla to want it to go away at some point - so perhaps "this is it". I am inclined to hope this would be the last extension and the Supercharging story would "normalize"...
Everyone who buys a Tesla goes through this. I ordered last April and almost everyone was certain that was a mistake because Tesla would HAVE to introduce a new interior or more range to compete with the upcoming Model 3 release. So far - nothing - and I have enjoyed the heck out of driving mine for 7 months now. Truth be told, I think Tesla's are akin to iPhones in that the very second you buy one the next great thing is just around the corner. This makes a great case for a lease, but I have a psychological problem with knowing my payment every month is disappearing into the ether. This is true when you buy too, but at least in my mind I'm going to have equity at some point.
In any event, good luck! You'll love the car and absolutely be disappointed you missed something at some point.
In any event, good luck! You'll love the car and absolutely be disappointed you missed something at some point.
Tesla need sales. If sales fall off because of a change of referral they will act. They did exactly that last year. If the referral goes and they bring out a new interior you'd be happy. There are new wheels already, maybe a new colour or two. The smart more depends where you live in the world - in the UK buying a used face lift car from about about a year ago gives you unlimited super charging that is transferable, no annual road tax (circa $500 a year) and a sizeable sum off the price as depreciation, a facelift MS and a choice of AP1 o EAP (there are both around). But people still buy new. You can afford to buy used and trade it in in 3 or 4 months without it costing much, a customer order will cost you significant cash based on nearly new examples on the market.
But if nobody bought new, there would be no used cars to buy, just ex demonstrators and loan cars.
But if nobody bought new, there would be no used cars to buy, just ex demonstrators and loan cars.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
On a positive note, I ordered my Model X, and before it was delivered they made some running changes, and they were included in my car when delivered.
In addition I have recieved several over the air updates which have kept my car current. They also introduced an uncorking program which increased the performance of the 75 vehicles to a very nice level of additional performance.
There is really no way to game the ordering timing with any certainty.
An interesting thing is that sometimes people wait to order until they see a major update, but then you see some posts from people that do not like the newer update as much as the older one. Hard to win at this. Kind of the luck of the draw.
Also, some updates are released and quickly withdrawn for one reason or another. Saw that recently with the headliner changes on the Model 3. Some are happy that they ordered earlier to get the Ultrasuede headliner.
In addition I have recieved several over the air updates which have kept my car current. They also introduced an uncorking program which increased the performance of the 75 vehicles to a very nice level of additional performance.
There is really no way to game the ordering timing with any certainty.
An interesting thing is that sometimes people wait to order until they see a major update, but then you see some posts from people that do not like the newer update as much as the older one. Hard to win at this. Kind of the luck of the draw.
Also, some updates are released and quickly withdrawn for one reason or another. Saw that recently with the headliner changes on the Model 3. Some are happy that they ordered earlier to get the Ultrasuede headliner.
