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Buy vs Lease - Detail Included

I'm new here, great community and a ton of valuable information. I am shopping for a new MS Performance and comparing a lease to buy. I have spent a couple days searching and reading the numerous threads on this topic but wanted to share my findings and see if anyone has any input.

Leasing obviously makes sense to protect future downside if the value of the vehicle drops significantly. However, the value of these cars is very strong when looking at the used marketplace and trade-in value.

I am looking at a 2020 Performance MS, here are the options.

Buy: 107,990 + tax

Lease 24mo: Total Cost: $59,000
Lease 36mo: Total Cost: $70,000

If I look at KBB trade-in values for a 2018 and 2017 to compare, the values are $80,621 and $68,074 respectively. So if I buy outright and get out of the car after 2 years my cost would be $27,369, 3 years would be $39,916. This is obviously significantly cheaper than the lease.

Based on your experience am I looking at this the right way? Anything I am missing?

Thanks in advance for your help!

Dave.
 

AMPd

Well-Known Member
Nov 27, 2012
5,009
5,336
Northern California
Did you factor the tax into the loss? It could be over 6k depending on your tax rate.
But even with that it seems way cheaper to buy and then sell rather than leasing, which would make sense since leasing is much more convenient and as with most things, you pay a premium for convenience.
 
I have been thinking about the lease/buy scenario as well. But, I think you need to take into account that the starting price for the 2017-18 performance models were a lot higher than they currently are. I think there is more depreciation than you are calculating. The 2018 P100D cost about 140k without additional options added which winds up being about 40+% depreciation or a cost of 60k from the starting price. A similar depreciation on your starting price of 108k might be like 45k... Still cheaper than the lease cost, but certainly closer than the way you are running the numbers.
 

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