Buyer Beware: AP2 Extremely Dangerous

[JeffK]

Help my model X P100D is in and I don't want to take delivery. When I purchased the car 3 months ago sales person told me by the time my shows up autopilot will be way better than my model s p85d. That is not where near the case right now. Tesla told me take the car it will not be much longer before the ap2 is better? Ok take $160,000 car and hope that is the case? Also traded in my Mercedes amg63 so I also have a $7000.00 tax credit that will be lost if I don't take delivery, and the unlimited supercharging. Thoughts

Tesla does over the air updates... take the car, drive it like a normal car, and wait for the software to improve.

Unless you can't drive for some reason?!

I mean if you are super impatient and want decent EAP/FSD right away then you can always take an uber / lyft / a taxi...

 

[electracity]

Help my model X P100D is in and I don't want to take delivery. When I purchased the car 3 months ago sales person told me by the time my shows up autopilot will be way better than my model s p85d. That is not where near the case right now. Tesla told me take the car it will not be much longer before the ap2 is better? Ok take $160,000 car and hope that is the case? Also traded in my Mercedes amg63 so I also have a $7000.00 tax credit that will be lost if I don't take delivery, and the unlimited supercharging. Thoughts

You bought a great car that will be improved yearly. You are probably just having a bit of buyers remorse.

The complaining of late is caused more by Elon's over promising than any fundamental product problem. Unless you are expecting full autonomy by next year, you are unlikely to be disappointed. The current AP issues are likely a hiccup that will be forgotten by summer.

 

[gearchruncher]

You traded in your Mercedes to Tesla BEFORE you took delivery of your car? Or are Michigan's laws so different that you can sell your old car to one party and then use that against a new purchase at a different dealer?

 

[Plastic6]

You traded in your Mercedes to Tesla BEFORE you took delivery of your car? Or are Michigan's laws so different that you can sell your old car to one party and then use that against a new purchase at a different dealer?

I'm in Minnesota and yes they took it three months ago. I was $24000 behind and had to write a check. No the model X is sitting there waiting for me to take delivery. I'm not confident it will be 3 months. Once I take delivery it then becomes my problem. I could order another model x wait 2-3 months. Then I would loose unlimited super charging, which to me is no big deal. I'm looking at resale.

 

[Plastic6]

Tesla does over the air updates... take the car, drive it like a normal car, and wait for the software to improve.

Unless you can't drive for some reason?!

I mean if you are super impatient and want decent EAP/FSD right away then you can always take an uber / lyft / a taxi...

Real necessary comment, this is the other issue with me owning a Tesla. Some people are so arrogant and seem to have all the answers. I currently own 20 cars right now and defiantly can drive right around you with most of them. I purchase the Tesla for the technology and acceleration. My collection is around the highest horsepower AMERICAN made cars. So please before speculating, only respond if it's useful. Darn I got rid of my Mercedes to not deal with this type of person.

 

[schonelucht]

Help my model X P100D is in and I don't want to take delivery. When I purchased the car 3 months ago sales person told me by the time my shows up autopilot will be way better than my model s p85d. That is not where near the case right now. Tesla told me take the car it will not be much longer before the ap2 is better? Ok take $160,000 car and hope that is the case? Also traded in my Mercedes amg63 so I also have a $7000.00 tax credit that will be lost if I don't take delivery, and the unlimited supercharging. Thoughts

Your P100D is going to better in every single aspect than your old car. Except for autopilot. One day it will be better in autopilot too, but no one knows when. Not even Tesla, you know because you got burned already by their expectations that it'd be there already. Whatever they suggest you on timeline today, they are not going to meet them.

It seems you are buying this car because you want to have the best Autopilot experience money can buy _right now_. If that is true, then this car is not for you. If you can settle for the the best electric car money can buy right now, then it is.

 

[calisnow]

@Plastic6 - 60 or 90 days from now or whatever AP 2 will begin to be better than AP 1 and then you'll be all "boo hoo I wish I had stuck with AP 2." Resale will certainly be better with AP 2, much, much better.

 

[AudubonB]

I currently own 20 cars right now and defiantly can drive right around you with most of them.

And why would you be driving defiantly, pray tell?

 

[JeffK]

And why would you be driving defiantly, pray tell?

It could be to parade around his 20 cars and snub his nose that the less fortunate.

I'm a 99 percenter and only own two cars one for me and one for my wife.

 

[disagree]

@Plastic6 - 60 or 90 days from now or whatever AP 2 will begin to be better than AP 1 and then you'll be all "boo hoo I wish I had stuck with AP 2." Resale will certainly be better with AP 2, much, much better.

60 or 90 days from now or whatever -- YIKES.

 

[Plastic6]

Most of the cars are classic, driving something so far ahead of anything today is a honor. I just don't want to be stuck if they need more hardware at OUR expense. Here is my old P85 so sad. Sorry for the 20 car comment I'm new to this and that was only meant for JEFFK

 

[JeffK]

Most of the cars are classic, driving something so far ahead of anything today is a honor. I just don't want to be stuck if they need more hardware at OUR expense. Here is my old P85 so sad. Sorry for the 20 car comment I'm new to this and that was only meant for JEFFK

It's doubtful they need more hardware for level 4/5. A manufacturer can always throw more hardware at it later to make it even more than twice as safe as a human, but they [Tesla] are targeting twice as good as a human with the current AP2 hardware.

The timeframe for FSD is still end of 2017 at the earliest.

 

[croman]

I just had a P85D loaner with AP1. I found AP2 to, in the areas AP2 works, perform as well or better. I was actually shocked. AP1 wasn't bad, its just AP2 felt smoother when stopping now. Maybe its the longer range radar or the better ultrasonics, but something about AP2 was better than AP1. I can't wait as the updates pile on. I was initially grumbling about the delay in sending features but I'm glad Tesla is doing this right and delivering good software to marry with the superior hardware.

 

[_jal_]

I take it you saw that 17.5.36 is going out that enables surface street auto steer usage up to 35 mph. That should be interesting

 

[calisnow]

@JeffK - it does seem possible based on musk's recent comments that a board swap may be necessary at some point. That would not require major surgery - no rewiring or new sensors. The current brain does 12 tflops but they have more in the pipeline that do significantly more. This upgrade, if it proves needed, should be fast and simple.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

@JeffK - it does seem possible based on musk's recent comments that a board swap may be necessary at some point. That would not require major surgery - no rewiring or new sensors. The current brain does 12 tflops but they have more in the pipeline that do significantly more. This upgrade, if it proves needed, should be fast and simple.

I read a couple of messages that said if someone bought a HW2 car without EAP then the car would require a visit to the Service Center to have EAP enabled. My guess is that they could leave the PX2 out of these cars and easily install it at a later date if EAP is ever added. Likewise, for those who already have the PX2 board, it would be easy to swap it out as better hardware is released in the future.

 

[JeffK]

@JeffK - it does seem possible based on musk's recent comments that a board swap may be necessary at some point. That would not require major surgery - no rewiring or new sensors. The current brain does 12 tflops but they have more in the pipeline that do significantly more. This upgrade, if it proves needed, should be fast and simple.

Drive PX 2 is only 8 tflops single precision.

If we consider that it's capable of 24 trillion deep learning operations per second it's not currently a limiting factor and Volta based boards which are more power efficient aren't going to be available until mid 2018 there's really nothing to upgrade at the moment. They did, however, make it easy to upgrade should they need to.

Keep in mind this only has to process neural networks and not train them from scratch. Training DNNs is where you'd really need the horsepower, but that doesn't happen in your car which is only a very small subset of the fleet data. They might choose to have the cars augment the networks themselves but again this isn't terribly taxing.

Tesla already knows how much data is coming back from radar, cameras, and ultrasonics. It's a known value and they tested various platforms (Nvidia, AMD, Intel) already.

In the future Tesla might even use their own ASICs to offload some of the work and make it more power efficient.

 

[calisnow]

@JeffK - It's my understanding that there are multiple versions of PX2 currently in existence today - some with more horsepower than others (there's a long thread on this). And I thought the version Tesla is installing now has only about half the 24 trillion ops per second. Also supposedly Nvidia's CEO said he thinks the board Tesla is using in the cars is not sufficient.

 

[JeffK]

@JeffK - It's my understanding that there are multiple versions of PX2 currently in existence today - some with more horsepower than others (there's a long thread on this). And I thought the version Tesla is installing now has only about half the 24 trillion ops per second. Also supposedly Nvidia's CEO said he thinks the board Tesla is using in the cars is not sufficient.

No, there're only two versions. One is a small form factor version and the full version. You can of course put multiple cards in one vehicle. It may or may not be needed.

full version (capable of 24 DL TOPS, 8 tflops)

Jen-Hsun had in his slides that some vehicles may want two (or more) for full self driving. He's also referring to cars with more sensors (multiple radar and lidar sensors). This would give you a lot more data to process in real time. Nvidia is also pushing their own software suite as well.

the website reads:

Multiple fully configured DRIVE PX 2 systems can be integrated in a single vehicle to enable autonomous driving.

Here's a quote from the CEO Jen-Hsun Huang:

And I think what Tesla has done by launching and having on the road in the very near-future here, a full autonomous driving capability using AI, that has sent a shockwave through the automotive industry. It’s basically five years ahead. Anybody who’s talking about 2021 and that’s just a non-starter anymore.

 

[lunitiks]

Untrue. The 24 DL TOPS would require two cards. Tesla is only using one, like that Nvidia demo buggy