By 2022 all BMW's will be AWD range-extender electric cars | Electric Vehicle...

[AustinPowers]

I don't put all of the blame on the manufacturers. Part of the blame is on the consumers too. They are too afraid of change and find comfort in gas stations. Perfect example is the second comment in the article: "So, 2021 will be the last year to even consider buying a BMW. Got it." I rest my case.

Most EV owners (especially Tesla) realize there's no need for a gas engine but the general public just isn't there yet.

I think it is not just that.
As long as BEVs are so much more expensive than ICE cars, there is no chance they will conquer the mass market. Have you seen the average selling price of new cars, let alone used ones (which make up the majority of private sales over here)?
The simple matter of the fact is that at current BEV prices, the vast majority of prospective car buyers just can't afford one.

 

[MartinAustin]

Mods should probably change the subject heading of the thread, since BMW is clearly not doing what the thread says they are.

 

[matbl]

Mods should probably change the subject heading of the thread, since BMW is clearly not doing what the thread says they are.

Are you sure?

 

[gavine]

I think it is not just that.
As long as BEVs are so much more expensive than ICE cars, there is no chance they will conquer the mass market. Have you seen the average selling price of new cars, let alone used ones (which make up the majority of private sales over here)?
The simple matter of the fact is that at current BEV prices, the vast majority of prospective car buyers just can't afford one.

Good point, however, if you do the math, EVs are usually "affordable". Problem is, people don't want to do the math. If you drive a lot of miles, EVs are very fiscally smart in terms of total cost of ownership. Most people look at the sticker price and don't go beyond that.

Actually, Tesla's motto should be "Do the Math".....also applies to Tesla Energy.

 

[Mookuh]

If you drive a lot of miles, EVs are very fiscally smart in terms of total cost of ownership.

This is certainly true, however people e.g. in Europe put significantly less km on their car than people in the US, on average. (The number usually cited for Europe is 12.000km/year (about 7500 miles), US is around 13k *miles*, according to this How Many Miles Do Americans Drive Per Year?)
Additionally, electricity is a lot more expensive here than in the US. So is gasoline, but to my knowledge to a smaller degree.

All that said, I'm currently working on my masters thesis which looks at exactly that: Total Cost of Ownership of electric vs. ICE, in a small commercial fleet (with real data). I'll share some of the insights on here.

 

[matbl]

Good point, however, if you do the math, EVs are usually "affordable". Problem is, people don't want to do the math. If you drive a lot of miles, EVs are very fiscally smart in terms of total cost of ownership. Most people look at the sticker price and don't go beyond that.

Actually, Tesla's motto should be "Do the Math".....also applies to Tesla Energy.

Math:
BMW 5-series touring (without options): ~350 ksek
Tesla S70D (without options): 827 ksek
annual savings on fuel: ~15 ksek ( not counting cost of electricity)

service first three years:
Tesla: 0-18 ksek (you can always chose to do service or not)
BMW: < 2 ksek. (Standard service is free for first three years, but you still need some oil...)

road tax:
BMW: ~ 2 ksek per year.
Tesla: essentially 0

tyres, insuarance, etc:
Essentially the same for both. A little bit more expensive tyres on the tesla.

i use sek instead of eur since that's the prices I know. But it's essentially the same in eur (divide by ~10).

As you can see, lower maintenance and fuel costs doesn't make upp for the increased price...

 

[AustinPowers]

Exactly. So even if one does the math, the numbers just don't add up yet. At least not here.
And the sticker price is what people have to be able to afford. What good is (little) fuel savings (I am not factoring in less service costs because the jury is still out about that one) over several years if you just haven't got say 40K for an e-Golf (let alone 75K plus for a Model S) but rather 20K for an ICE Golf.

 

[thegruf]

Math:
BMW 5-series touring (without options): ~350 ksek
Tesla S70D (without options): 827 ksek
annual savings on fuel: ~15 ksek ( not counting cost of electricity)

service first three years:
Tesla: 0-18 ksek (you can always chose to do service or not)
BMW: < 2 ksek. (Standard service is free for first three years, but you still need some oil...)

road tax:
BMW: ~ 2 ksek per year.
Tesla: essentially 0

tyres, insuarance, etc:
Essentially the same for both. A little bit more expensive tyres on the tesla.

i use sek instead of eur since that's the prices I know. But it's essentially the same in eur (divide by ~10).

As you can see, lower maintenance and fuel costs doesn't make upp for the increased price...

This is not a true comparison.
All the time the high performance tesla is quoted vs the cheapest ICE equivalent. Make the comparison equal.
(if you say the low performance ICE is sufficent for you, this is fine, Tesla don't make a model for this market, but it is not a reasonable comparison)

the cheapest 5 series touring is the 2WD 518d which is actually 376.4 ksek
The performance of this model is 0-100km/h 9.5 seconds

You might as well compare a pram with a SpaceX rocket

So, using a comparable performance model the 535D xdrive at 587.4 ksek the numbers look a lot different, plus you have much more expensive servicing than the 518d + much inferior fuel economy.

On a like for like basis and typical annual mileage, Tesla wins easily, especially in Europe as our Gas/Diesel prices are >50% more expensive than the USA.

 

[matbl]

This is not a true comparison.
All the time the high performance tesla is quoted vs the cheapest ICE equivalent. Make the comparison equal.
(if you say the low performance ICE is sufficent for you, this is fine, Tesla don't make a model for this market, but it is not a reasonable comparison)

the cheapest 5 series touring is the 2WD 518d which is actually 376.4 ksek
The performance of this model is 0-100km/h 9.5 seconds

You might as well compare a pram with a SpaceX rocket

So, using a comparable performance model the 535D xdrive at 587.4 ksek the numbers look a lot different, plus you have much more expensive servicing than the 518d + much inferior fuel economy.

On a like for like basis and typical annual mileage, Tesla wins easily, especially in Europe as our Gas/Diesel prices are >50% more expensive than the USA.

I compare with what I cross shopped against (520d). Me and many many pther europeans dimply dorsn't care about if the car does 0-100 in 5 or 10 seconds. And we don't care for horsepowers. 180-190 is plenty enough....
i would love a MS with only the small rear motor for 150 ksek less.
You see very very few 535's here. But 520's are plentyfull.

Even using your numbers, there's still a 240 ksek gap. You can't make that up in fuel savings in less than ~15 years... A typical business lease is 3 years....
If I had bought my MS personally, maybe I would consider keeping it 5 years...

 

[Yggdrasill]

Without incentives, the Model S only makes economic sense when compared to fossil cars with similar performance. But long before 2022, the Model 3 will be on the market. This will be a car that makes economic sense when compared to a much greater range of fossil cars.

 

[matbl]

Without incentives, the Model S only makes economic sense when compared to fossil cars with similar performance. But long before 2022, the Model 3 will be on the market. This will be a car that makes economic sense when compared to a much greater range of fossil cars.

Sure. But some years before 2022, the bmw i5 is expected. The BMW i5 Prepares to Take on Tesla's Model S
Big questions are of course as always range and charging network. If those are solved I might just go back to bmw even if its price is similar to the (next generation?) MS.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Very little is known about the i5. The news varies from day to day concerning the drivetrain, one day it's an FCV, then it's a PHEV, then its a BEV, then it's an FCV, etc. And the i5 is a Model S-competitor, not a Model 3 competitor.

The Model 3 is likely to change the landscape substantially.

 

[Spidy]

the cheapest 5 series touring is the 2WD 518d which is actually 376.4 ksek
The performance of this model is 0-100km/h 9.5 seconds

And you are using a stat for comparison that's not that relevant to most buyers and in addition benefits a lot from electric drivetrains.

My mum certainly doesn't drive a Mercedes Wagon due to it's acceleration, but rather because of the space, a nice interior, a comfortable ride etc.

 

[MartinAustin]

Are you sure?

Yes.

 

[tomas]

Yes.

Not me. Tesla is not going to surprise anyone because their mission is clearly stated and BEV is what they do. BMW much more able to be clandestine and do a ton of development in any direction without us knowing until they either announce intentions or begin scaling sources. Point is: we don't know, we are guessing.

 

[AustinPowers]

You might as well compare a pram with a SpaceX rocket

At least a pram doesn't explode every so often under your baby's butt ;-)

- - - Updated - - -

This is not a true comparison.
[...]
So, using a comparable performance model the 535D xdrive at 587.4 ksek the numbers look a lot different, plus you have much more expensive servicing than the 518d + much inferior fuel economy.

On a like for like basis and typical annual mileage, Tesla wins easily, especially in Europe as our Gas/Diesel prices are >50% more expensive than the USA.

Like matbl said, especially eco-friendly customers (who are the most likely to consider BEVs at all) don't usually cross-shop a sports/high performance car with a Model S (The simple fact is, Model S is grossly overpowered for what it needs to achieve.). You don't see as many top of the line models here as in say Switzerland or the US for example. A 520d is a valid comparison as it has ample performance at very low maintenance and running costs.
Plus, as you mentioned European gas/Diesel prices, don't forget that our electricity prices are far higher too.

 

[WarpedOne]

begin scaling sources. Point is: we don't know, we are guessing

They can 'hide' development, they can't hide scaling sources.
And without very scaled sources, any development they might be doing, becomes irrelevant.
What good is car they make in such small numbers that I cannot buy because I happen to live in the wrong part of the world?

Tesla already raised the bar very high. 2000 annual production was meaningful 5 years ago. Today the bar is at 50k, 10k means nothing much.
In 5 years the bar will be at 300k cars annual for a market leader. A car produced in 30k units pear year is no real competition.

 

[AustinPowers]

Without incentives, the Model S only makes economic sense when compared to fossil cars with similar performance. But long before 2022, the Model 3 will be on the market. This will be a car that makes economic sense when compared to a much greater range of fossil cars.

That is what I sincerely hope.

 

[tomas]

They can 'hide' development, they can't hide scaling sources.
And without very scaled sources, any development they might be doing, becomes irrelevant.

what??? my point was that, for large scale production by 2022, BMW could be under development today very quietly. Would not need to begin scaling sources for a few years. Many sources and facilities they already have at scale and could just convert. So could be quiet until quite late in process. And BMW certainly has the channels to be most places in the world as soon as they launch new model.

 

[WarpedOne]

what???

Battery production. GF is not built in a year.
And chineese cannot supply them all.